economic
report  of the
pre si dent

iii
C O N T E N T S
ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT................................................ 1
ANNUAL REPORT OF THE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS* 7
CHAPTER 1. TO RECOVER, REBALANCE, AND REBUILD.............. 21
CHAPTER 2. THE YEAR IN REVIEW AND THE
YEARS AHEAD..................................................................... 37
CHAPTER 3. RESTORING FISCAL RESPONSIBILITY......................... 81
CHAPTER 4. STABILIZING AND HEALING THE
HOUSING MARKET............................................................ 99
CHAPTER 5. INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND FINANCE................129
CHAPTER 6. JOBS AND INCOME:
TODAY AND TOMORROW............................................163
CHAPTER 7. PRESERVING AND MODERNIZING
THE SAFETY NET.............................................................197
CHAPTER 8. IMPROVING THE QUALITY OF LIFE THROUGH
SMART REGULATION, INNOVATION, CLEAN
ENERGY, AND PUBLIC INVESTMENT.......................231
REFERENCES ..............................................................................................267
APPENDIX A REPORT TO THE PRESIDENT ON THE
ACTIVITIES OF THE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC
ADVISERS DURING 2011...............................................293
APPENDIX B. STATISTICAL TABLES RELATING TO INCOME,
EMPLOYMENT, AND PRODUCTION.......................307
Page
____________
*For a detailed table of contents of the Council’s Report, see page 11.

economic report
of the
president

Economic Report of the President | 3
economic report of the president
To the Congress of the United States:
One of the fundamental tenets of the American economy has been
that if you work hard, you can do well enough to raise a family, own a
home, send your kids to college, and put a little money away for retirement.
That’s the promise of America.
The defining issue of our time is how to keep that promise alive. We
can either settle for a country where a shrinking number of people do very
well while a growing number of Americans barely get by, or we can restore
an economy where everyone gets a fair shot, everyone does their fair share,
and everyone plays by the same set of rules.
Long before the recession that began in December 2007, job growth
was insufficient for our growing population. Manufacturing jobs were leaving
our shores. Technology made businesses more efficient, but also made
some jobs obsolete. The few at the top saw their incomes rise like never
before, but most hardworking Americans struggled with costs that were
growing, paychecks that were not, and personal debt that kept piling up.
In 2008, the house of cards collapsed. We learned that mortgages had
been sold to people who could not afford them or did not understand them.
Banks had made huge bets and doled out big bonuses with other people’s
money. Regulators had looked the other way, or did not have the authority
to stop the bad behavior. It was wrong. It was irresponsible. And it plunged
our economy into a crisis that put millions out of work, saddled us with
more debt, and left innocent, hardworking Americans holding the bag.
In the year before I took office, we lost nearly 5 million private sector
jobs. And we lost almost another 4 million before our policies were in
full effect.
Those are the facts. But so are these: In the last 23 months, businesses
have created 3.7 million jobs. Last year, they created the most jobs
since 2005. American manufacturers are hiring again, creating jobs for the
4 | Economic Report of the President
first time since the late 1990s. And we have put in place new rules to hold
Wall Street accountable, so a crisis like this never happens again.
Some, however, still advocate going back to the same economic
policies that stacked the deck against middle-class Americans for way too
many years. And their philosophy is simple: We are better off when everybody
is left to fend for themselves and play by their own rules.
That philosophy is wrong. The more Americans who succeed, the
more America succeeds. These are not Democratic values or Republican
values. They are American values. And we have to reclaim them.
This is a make-or-break moment for the middle class, and for all
those who are working to get into the middle class. It is a moment when we
can go back to the ways of the past—to growing deficits, stagnant incomes
and job growth, declining opportunity, and rising inequality—or we can
make a break from the past. We can build an economy by restoring our
greatest strengths: American manufacturing, American energy, skills for
American workers, and a renewal of American values—an economy built
to last.
When it comes to the deficit, we have already agreed to more than
$2 trillion in cuts and savings. But we need to do more, and that means
making choices. Right now, we are poised to spend nearly $1 trillion more
on what was supposed to be a temporary tax break for the wealthiest 2
percent of Americans. Right now, because of loopholes and shelters in the
tax code, a quarter of all millionaires pay lower tax rates than millions of
middle-class households. I believe that tax reform should follow the Buffett
Rule. If you make more than $1 million a year, you should not pay less than
30 percent in taxes. In fact, if you are earning a million dollars a year, you
should not get special tax subsidies or deductions. On the other hand, if
you make under $250,000 a year, like 98 percent of American families do,
your taxes should not go up.
Americans know that this generation’s success is only possible
because past generations felt a responsibility to each other, and to the
future of their country. Now it is our turn. Now it falls to us to live up to
that same sense of shared responsibility.
This year’s Economic Report of the President, prepared by the
Council of Economic Advisers, describes the emergency rescue measures
taken to end the recession and support the ongoing recovery, and lays out
a blueprint for an economy built to last. It explains how we are restoring
our strengths as a Nation—our innovative economy, our strong manufacturing
base, and our workers—by investing in the technologies of the
future, in companies that create jobs here in America, and in education
Economic Report of the President | 5
and training programs that will prepare our workers for the jobs of tomorrow.
We must ensure that these investments benefit everyone and increase
opportunity for all Americans or we risk threatening one of the features
that defines us as a Nation—that America is a country in which anyone can
do well, regardless of how they start out.
No one built this country on their own. This Nation is great because
we built it together. If we remember that truth today, join together in common
purpose, and maintain our common resolve, then I am as confident
as ever that our economic future is hopeful and strong.
the white house
february 2012

the annual report
of the
council of economic advisers

9
letter of transmittal
Council of Economic Advisers
Washington, D.C., February 17, 2012
Mr. President:
The Council of Economic Advisers herewith submits its 2012
Annual Report in accordance of the Employment Act of 1946 as amended
by the Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978.
Sincerely,
Alan B. Krueger
Chairman
Katharine G. Abraham
Member
Carl Shapiro
Member
11
Page
C O N T E N T S
CHAPTER 1. TO RECOVER, REBALANCE, AND REBUILD........21
RECOVERING FROM THE GREAT RECESSION...........................................23
REBALANCING AT HOME AND ABROAD....................................................29
Restoring Fiscal Responsibility........................................................ 30
REBUILDING A STRONGER ECONOMY........................................................30
Jobs and Income: Today and Tomorrow........................................ 31
Preserving and Modernizing the Safety Net................................... 32
Improving the Quality of Life through Smart Regulation,
Innovation, Clean Energy, and Public Investment........................ 33
CONCLUSION..........................................................................................................34
CHAPTER 2. THE YEAR IN REVIEW AND THE
YEARS AHEAD............................................................................................37
AN ECONOMY IN RECOVERY: KEY EVENTS OF 2011..............................38
AN ECONOMY IN RECOVERY: THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF
FINANCIAL CRISES...............................................................................................42
DEVELOPMENTS IN 2011 AND THE NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK...............46
Consumption and Saving................................................................. 46
Developments in Housing Markets................................................. 51
Business Fixed Investment............................................................... 53
Manufacturing Output.................................................................... 54
Business Inventories......................................................................... 57
Government Outlays, Consumption, and Investment................... 57
State and Local Governments.......................................................... 59
Real Exports and Imports................................................................ 60
Labor Market Trends....................................................................... 61
Wages, Labor Productivity, and Prices........................................... 63
Financial Markets............................................................................ 66
12 | Annual Report of the Council of Economic Advisers
Small Businesses and the Recovery.................................................. 67
THE LONG-TERM OUTLOOK............................................................................74
Growth in GDP over the Long Term.............................................. 76
CONCLUSION..........................................................................................................79
CHAPTER 3. RESTORING FISCAL RESPONSIBILITY..................81
DETERMINANTS OF CURRENT DEFICITS....................................................82
Falling Effective Tax Rates on Upper-Income Taxpayers............. 85
Heterogeneity in Effective Tax Rates among High-Income
Taxpayers.......................................................................................... 86
Addressing the Role Of Exclusions and Deductions in
Effective Tax Burdens....................................................................... 87
THE FISCAL OUTLOOK.......................................................................................88
Medium-Term Budget Projections.................................................. 89
The Vital Role of Economic Growth in Future
Fiscal Outcomes................................................................................ 91
Improvement in Long-Run Budget Projections.............................. 92
THE IMPORTANCE OF RESTORING FISCAL
SUSTAINABILITY...................................................................................................93
THE PRESIDENT’S BALANCED APPROACH TO
DEFICIT REDUCTION..........................................................................................95
CHAPTER 4. STABILIZING AND HEALING THE
HOUSING MARKET..................................................................................99
THE HOUSING CRISIS AND THE INITIAL POLICY
RESPONSES............................................................................................................ 101
Initial Policy Responses to the Crisis............................................. 103
Negative Equity: An Unprecedented and
Pervasive Problem.......................................................................... 105
MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS OF HOUSING MARKET
WEAKNESS............................................................................................................ 107
Consumption Effects....................................................................... 110
Residential Construction and Home Ownership Patterns.......... 114
STRUCTURAL PROBLEMS IN HOUSING MARKET................................. 117
Adjudicating Legal Disputes.......................................................... 118
Incentive Conflicts.......................................................................... 119
Contents | 13
POLICY ACTIONS............................................................................................... 120
Building on the Experience of Existing Programs........................ 121
New Levers in Housing Policy....................................................... 124
CONCLUSION....................................................................................................... 126
CHAPTER 5. INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND FINANCE..........129
THE EURO-AREA CRISIS AND ITS IMPLICATIONS
FOR THE UNITED STATES............................................................................... 131
Outlook for Europe and Implications for the
U.S. Economy.................................................................................. 137
International Cooperation in Resolving Crises............................ 138
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, INTERNATIONAL TRADE,
AND THE U.S. ECONOMY................................................................................ 139
Investment in the United States by Foreign Companies.............. 140
The National Export Initiative...................................................... 143
The Role of Services in Export Growth and America’s
Current Account Balance............................................................... 148
Policy Initiatives to Support Export Growth in
Goods and Services......................................................................... 153
CONCLUSION....................................................................................................... 161
CHAPTER 6. JOBS AND INCOME:
TODAY AND TOMORROW..................................................................163
JOBS AND EMPLOYMENT................................................................................ 164
THE DYNAMICS OF LABOR MARKET TRENDS....................................... 167
Job Dynamics.................................................................................. 167
Worker Flows.................................................................................. 172
Earnings and Income Mobility over the Career and
between Generations...................................................................... 174
Overall Trends in Income and Rising Inequality......................... 178
Long-Term Unemployment........................................................... 181
PREPARING FOR TOMORROW’S LABOR MARKET................................ 183
Education and the Workers of Tomorrow.................................... 183
Increasing Educational Attainment.............................................. 189
Federally Supported Job Training................................................. 192
CONCLUSION....................................................................................................... 195
14 | Annual Report of the Council of Economic Advisers
CHAPTER 7. PRESERVING AND MODERNIZING
THE SAFETY NET.....................................................................................197
UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE..................................................................... 200
The Economics of Unemployment Insurance............................... 201
Recent Trends in UI Receipt and Its Effect on
Household Income.......................................................................... 202
Policy Innovations.......................................................................... 203
OTHER SAFETY NET PROGRAMS................................................................. 206
HEALTH INSURANCE........................................................................................ 209
The Economics of Employer-Sponsored Health Insurance.......... 209
Medicaid and CHIP: A Health Care Safety Net
for Children..................................................................................... 211
Expanding Health Care Coverage: The Affordable
Care Act.......................................................................................... 214
Provisions of the Affordable Care Act Now in Place................... 215
The Economic Benefits of Expanding Insurance Coverage......... 217
The Affordable Care Act and Medicare........................................ 219
RETIREMENT SECURITY.................................................................................. 220
Declining Retirement Preparedness.............................................. 221
Challenges to the Retirement Safety Net....................................... 222
Policies to Address Retirement Saving Challenges....................... 228
CONCLUSION....................................................................................................... 229
CHAPTER 8. IMPROVING THE QUALITY OF LIFE THROUGH
SMART REGULATION, INNOVATION, CLEAN ENERGY, AND
PUBLIC INVESTMENT...........................................................................231
A SMART APPROACH TO REGULATIONS................................................. 232
Designing Smart Regulations......................................................... 233
Smart Regulations in Practice....................................................... 234
Retrospective Analysis.................................................................... 238
“Look-Back” Initiative.................................................................... 240
Improvements in Everyday Life..................................................... 242
INNOVATION....................................................................................................... 243
Measuring Innovation.................................................................... 245
Intellectual Property Rights and Patent Reform.......................... 246
Contents | 15
Private and Public Investments in R&D...................................... 247
Commercialization......................................................................... 250
Wireless Broadband and Spectrum Policy.................................... 251
CLEAN & SECURE ENERGY............................................................................. 252
Enhancing Energy Security............................................................ 252
Reducing Demand.......................................................................... 253
Increasing Domestic Energy Supplies............................................ 253
Reducing Emissions........................................................................ 254
Supporting Clean Energy R&D and Infrastructure..................... 255
INFRASTRUCTURE............................................................................................. 259
The State of the Nation’s Infrastructure....................................... 259
Government and Private Sector Roles in Infrastructure............. 261
Financing Infrastructure Investments........................................... 262
Recent and Current Federal Infrastructure Initiatives................ 264
CONCLUSION....................................................................................................... 266
REFERENCES.............................................................................................267
APPENDIXES
A. Report to the President on the Activities of the Council of
Economic Advisers During 2011........................................................293
B. Statistical Tables Relating to Income, Employment, and
Production..............................................................................................307
FIGURES
1-1. Median Household Income, 1979–2010.............................................. 22
1-2. Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, 2007–2011............................................ 27
1-3. Unemployment Rate Increases in Recessions Associated with
Financial Crises........................................................................................ 28
1-4. Earnings Ratio: College Degree or More to High School Degree,
1963–2010................................................................................................. 33
2-1. Real GDP Growth by Quarter, 2007–2011.......................................... 39
2-2. Real GDP During Recoveries................................................................. 43
2-3. Real GDP in Recessions Associated with Financial Crises............... 45
2-4. Unemployment Rate Increases in Recessions Associated with
Financial Crises........................................................................................ 45
16 | Annual Report of the Council of Economic Advisers
2-5. Consumption and Wealth Relative to Disposable Personal
Income (DPI), 1952–2011...................................................................... 47
2-6. Business Fixed Investment and Cash Flow, 1990–2011.................... 55
2-7. Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims, 2004–2012......... 61
2-8. Private Nonfarm Employment During Recoveries............................ 62
2-9. Unemployment Rate, 1979–2011.......................................................... 63
2-10. Consumer Price Inflation, 2004–2011.................................................. 65
2-11. Price Markup over Unit Labor Costs, Nonfarm Business,
1947–2011................................................................................................. 65
2-12. 10–Year Treasury Yields, 2004–2012................................................... 66
2-13. Private Sector Job Recovery by Firm Size, 2007–2011....................... 68
2-14. Small Business Commercial and Industrial Loans, 2007–2011........ 69
2-15. Employment Outlook for Small Businesses, 2003–2012................... 73
2-16. Labor Force Participation and Educational Enrollment,
Ages 16–24, 2002–2011.......................................................................... 78
3-1. Selected Components of Deficit Projections: 2009–2019.................. 84
3-2. Average Tax Rates for Selected Income Groups Under a
Fixed Income Distribution, 1960–2010................................................ 86
3-3. Average Individual Income Tax Rates by Income Quintile,
2000 and 2008.......................................................................................... 87
3-4. Projected Medium-Term Budget Deficits, 2011–2022...................... 89
4-1. Housing Busts in U.S. History.............................................................102
4-2. Price-to-Rent Ratio and Mortgage Debt............................................103
4-3. S&P/Case-Shiller: January 2009 Expectations of Future
House Prices and Actual Price Index.................................................104
4-4. The Distribution of Underwater Mortgages By State, 2011............106
4-5. Employment Growth: Nontradable Industries.................................114
5-1. Real GDP Growth, 2000–2011............................................................130
5-2. Economic and Fiscal Indicators for Selected Euro-Area
Countries................................................................................................132
5-3. 10-Year Bond Spreads Relative to Germany, 2010–2012................134
5-4. Share of Each State’s Goods Exports to the European
Union by State, 2010.............................................................................138
5-5. Annual FDI Inflows, Selected Countries, 2006–2010......................141
5-6. Change in Manufacturing Unit Labor Costs, 2002–2010...............146
5-7. U.S. Current Account Balance and Its Components,
2000–2011...............................................................................................149
5-8. Contribution to Services Surplus by Service Sector
Category, 2010.......................................................................................151
Contents | 17
6-1. Monthly Change in Private Sector Employment, 1980–2011........164
6-2. Unemployment Rate, 1980–2012........................................................165
6-3. BDS Estimates of Annual Gross Job Gain and Loss Rates,
1980–2009...............................................................................................170
6-4. BED Estimates of Quarterly Gross Job Gain and Loss Rates,
1990–2011...............................................................................................171
6-5. Hires and Separations, 2001–2011......................................................172
6-6. Flows into and out of Unemployment as Percent of the
Labor Force, 1990–2012.......................................................................173
6-7. The Great Gatsby Curve: Inequality and Intergenerational
Mobility...................................................................................................177
6-8. Percent of Households with Annual Income within 50 Percent
of the Median.........................................................................................178
6-9. Growth in Real After–Tax Income, 1979 –2007...............................179
6-10. Share of Total U.S. Income Earned by Top 1 Percent,
1913–2010...............................................................................................180
6-11. Median Duration of Unemployment and Long-Term
Unemployed as a Percent of Total Unemployed, 1980–2011.........182
6-12. Average Annual Earnings by Worker Education Level,
1963–2010...............................................................................................187
6-13. Difference Between Projected Employment Growth Rate by
Education and Average Projected Employment Growth Rate,
2010–2020...............................................................................................188
7-1. Share of Household Income from Unemployment Insurance
among Recipients in 2010, by Household Type...............................203
7-2. Percentage of Private Sector Establishments Offering Health
Insurance by Number of Employees, 1996–2010.............................211
7-3. Percentage of Workers Without Health Insurance and the
Ratio of Per Capita Health Expenditures to Median Income,
1979–2010...............................................................................................212
7-4. Percentage of Children and Adults Without Health Insurance,
1988–2010...............................................................................................213
7-5. Percentage of Young Adults Without Health Insurance,
2010 Q3 and 2011 Q2...........................................................................216
7-6. The National Retirement Risk Index, 1983–2009............................223
7-7. Percent of Individuals with Various Shares of Family Income
from Social Security, by Age of Householder, 2010.........................225
8-1. Benefits and Costs of Regulations, 2001–2011..................................235
8-2. Economic Growth, Vehicle Safety, and Air Quality,
1980–2010...............................................................................................244
18 | Annual Report of the Council of Economic Advisers
TABLES
2-1. Administration Economic Forecast...................................................... 74
2-2. Alternative Labor Market Forecasts, as of February 2012................. 75
2-3. Components of Actual and Potential Real GDP Growth,
1952–2022................................................................................................. 77
3-1. Distribution of Average Federal Tax Rates.......................................... 88
5-1. Growth in U.S. Goods Exports, by Product......................................145
5-2. Dissection of U.S. Goods Export Growth, by Market......................148
5-3. Cross-Border Services Exports by Type and Country, 2010...........154
5-4. Cross-Border Services Imports by Type and Country, 2010..........154
7-1. Number of Participants and Total Federal Expenditures
for Safety Net Programs, 2010.............................................................207
7-2. Distribution of Wealth Components for Households
Aged 65–69, 2008..................................................................................225
BOXES
Box 2-1: SBA’s Role in Financing Small Firms During the Recovery.......... 70
Box 6-1: Work-Life Balance.............................................................................184
Box 8-1 Developing Domestic Energy: Shale Gas and Shale Oil................256
DATA WATCH
Data Watch 1-1: Innovation in Measurement................................................. 24
Data Watch 1-2: Revisions to Estimates of the Gross Domestic Product... 26
Data Watch 2-1: The Data Implications of the Transition to a
Services-Based Economy ...................................................................... 52
Data Watch 2-2: Investment in Intangibles..................................................... 56
Data Watch 3-1: Data from the IRS Statistics of Income Division.............. 92
Data Watch 3-2: Measuring Government Debt across Countries................ 96
Data Watch 4-1: Need for a Comprehensive Source of Data on
Mortgage Debt and Performance........................................................111
Data Watch 4-2: Need for a Comprehensive Source of Data
on Home Sales........................................................................................116
Data Watch 5-1: The Role of the New Office of Financial Research in
Combating Global Financial Risks.....................................................136
Data Watch 6-1: Measurement of Startups....................................................169
Data Watch 6-2: Intergenerational Mobility.................................................176
Data Watch 7-1: The Census Bureau’s Supplemental Poverty Measure...198
Data Watch 7-2: Health Data for Policy.........................................................218
Data Watch 8-1: The Value of Information—the PACE Survey................240
Contents | 19
ECONOMICS APPLICATIONS
Economic Application Box 3-1: Measuring Progressivity
in the Tax Code ...................................................................................... 90
Economics Application Box 4-1: Making a Decision about
Refinancing a Mortgage........................................................................108
Economics Application Box 6-1: Calculating the Cost of College.............193
Economics Application Box 7-1: Financial Literacy and
Common Mistakes Made by Retirement Savers ..............................226
Economics Application Box 8-1: Comparing Benefits and Costs..............236
21
C H A P T E R 1
TO RECOVER, REBALANCE,
AND REBUILD
The problems that caused the deep recession that began at the end of
2007 and lasted until mid-2009 were a long time in the making and will
not be solved overnight. But in 2011, the Nation continued to recover from
the Great Recession and to make progress toward building a stronger foundation
for more balanced and sustainable economic growth in the future.
The economy has expanded for 10 straight quarters. As a result of this
growth, by the third quarter of 2011, the real gross domestic product (GDP)
of the United States had surpassed its peak level at the start of the 2007–09
recession. Sustaining and strengthening the ongoing recovery remains a
top priority for the Obama Administration, while seeking to address the
fundamental imbalances and other problems that had built up for decades
and erupted with the financial and economic crisis in 2008.
The pace of the recovery has not been faster because of the severity of
the financial and economic crisis and the unique nature of the problems that
led to the crisis in the first place. These problems included excess borrowing
in the run-up to the financial crisis that subsequently caused massive deleveraging
by households, a massive loss of wealth during the financial crisis
that continues to constrain consumption, and excess residential home building
during the housing boom that continues to cause weakness in residential
construction and the housing sector.
Fundamentally, many of the problems that have plagued the economy
in the past decade can be traced to weak income growth for middle-class
workers. This can be seen in Figure 1-1, which displays the median household’s
income each year after adjusting for inflation. Income growth was
stagnant for middle-income earners in the 2001–07 period and, as is common,
declined in the recessions at the end and beginning of the decade.
Had income grown at the same average annual rate in the first decade of the
2000s as it did in the 1990s, middle-income households would have greatly
improved their financial situation.
22 | Chapter 1
A related phenomenon is that the size of the middle class has shrunk.
This disturbing trend has taken place over several decades. While those at
the top of the income distribution have seen strong income growth, many in
the middle and at the bottom have struggled. Many economists have argued
that, when confronted with easy credit and nontransparent terms, many
families borrowed at an unsustainable rate to make up for the weak income
growth they experienced in the 2000s. Strengthening and expanding the
middle class, and adequately reforming the financial sector, are therefore at
the root of the Obama Administration’s strategy to reestablish an economy
that is built to last.
In addition to lingering effects of the financial crisis and the longstanding
problem of weak income growth for the middle class, the recovery
in 2011 faced additional shocks from natural disasters in Asia, unrest in the
Middle East that caused oil prices to spike, self-inflicted wounds to confidence
from the contentious debt ceiling debate over the summer, and stress
in European debt markets. Despite these encumbrances—and with the support,
in part, of measures the President signed into law in December 2010,
including the payroll tax cut, the extension of unemployment insurance, and
100 percent business expensing—private-sector employment has increased
for 23 straight months, and the unemployment rate fell from a high of 10.0
percent in October 2009 to 8.3 percent in January 2012. Over the course of
42,000
44,000
46,000
48,000
50,000
52,000
54,000
56,000
58,000
60,000
1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007
Dollars (2010)
Figure 1-1
Median Household Income, 1979–2010
Projection if median
household income had
grown during the 2000s
at the same rate as it
did during the 1990s
Actual
2010
Note: Shading denotes recession.
Source: CEA calculations and Census Bureau.
To Recover, Rebalance, and Rebuild | 23
2011, the unemployment rate fell by 0.9 percentage points, the largest drop
in any year since 1994. Most of that decline occurred in the last three months
of 2011.
The sharp drop in unemployment toward the end of 2011 took
economic forecasters by surprise, because unemployment was projected
to remain in the high-8-percent range by many forecasters, including the
Council of Economic Advisers (CEA). As part of the Budget process, the
CEA, together with the Office of Management and Budget and Treasury officials,
made its forecast of economic outcomes in mid-November 2011. Since
that forecast was locked down, the reported unemployment rate has now
fallen by 0.7 percentage points, and the advance estimate of GDP growth
for the fourth quarter of 2011 exceeded what most forecasters had expected
in November. In view of the new information, the consensus of Blue Chip
forecasters lowered its forecast of the unemployment rate for the end of
2012 by about 0.8 percentage point, to 8.1 percent. The more optimistic
private forecasters expect the rate to be below 8.0 percent at the end of the
year. In Chapter 2, the Report illustrates the latest forecasting range for the
unemployment rate. One of the reasons for the range of forecasting uncertainty
is that it is unclear how many of the President’s job creation initiatives
Congress will enact in the coming year. Respected private forecasters have
estimated that a continuation of the 2 percentage point payroll tax cut and
extended unemployment insurance benefits through the remainder of 2012
could significantly boost economic growth and job creation.
The Administration’s economic strategy continues to be to: 1) pursue
avenues to raise demand for U.S. goods and services in the short run to support
the ongoing recovery and put more people back to work; 2) develop
credible policies to return to a fiscally sustainable path in the intermediate
and long term; and 3) invest in education, innovation, research, domestic
energy, and infrastructure in order to build a stronger foundation for future
economic growth and an expanding middle class. Put simply, the Nation
needs to recover, rebalance, and rebuild. As described in this Report, in
many instances, when Congress has not acted, the President has taken steps
to implement this agenda.
Recovering from the Great Recession
When President Obama took office on January 20, 2009, the U.S.
economy was contracting at an alarming rate, and employment was falling
by more than 700,000 jobs a month. The plunge in economic activity was
even deeper than the Bureau of Economic Analysis initially reported: revised
estimates showed that the economy contracted at an 8.9 percent annualized
24 | Chapter 1
Data Watch 1-1: Innovation in Measurement
Economic statistics are central to understanding how the economy
is working—whether consumer spending is growing or shrinking, the
extent to which businesses are investing in equipment and software,
the number of people currently employed, and the wages they are
earning, among many other examples. This year’s Economic Report of
the President highlights the role that accurate and timely economic measurement
plays in supporting sound economic decisions by policymakers,
businesses, and families. In a series of Data Watch boxes, the Report
offers examples of recently developed data series that shed light on
economic performance, significant gaps in available economic data, and
opportunities for improvements in the Nation’s economic measures.
The growing integration of technology in our daily lives has created
an abundance of new possibilities for producing better and more
timely data based on nontraditional sources of information. As Census
Bureau Director Robert Groves has written, “(t)he volume of data generated
outside the government statistical systems is increasing much faster
than the volume of data collected by the statistical systems; almost all of
these data are digitized in electronic files” (Groves 2012). Nontraditional
sources of information include both digital administrative data (e.g.,
tax records and records related to participation in government transfer
programs) and records generated in the private sector (e.g., data from
Internet searches, scanner data and social media data).
There is a long history of using administrative records to produce
economic statistics—under strict standards of confidentiality. The
Obama Administration has endeavored to create new databases that
track student performance across different stages of education, as well
as the performance of postsecondary educational institutions. Once
these databases have been developed, analyses of the outcomes achieved
by students with different educational experiences will help to guide
improvements in instructional quality and college choice.
Innovative statistics based on electronic records compiled as a
byproduct of commercial activity also can be informative. Adding series
based on Google Trends to economic forecasting models, for example,
can improve those models’ predictive power. The number of search
queries for a particular make of automobiles in the last two weeks of
a month, for instance, turns out to be a good predictor of sales of that
car, and the number of searches for real estate agencies is one of the best
predictors of current home sales (Choi and Varian 2009).
Unlike government survey data, data based on electronic records
generated for commercial or administrative purposes may not be
nationally representative, and expanding access to these records, even
To Recover, Rebalance, and Rebuild | 25
rate in the last quarter of 2008, from the initial advanced estimate of 3.8 percent,
the largest quarterly downward revision in history. The Administration
immediately took bold steps to turn around an economy in free fall. It
worked to stem the job losses and put people back to work through the
American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (the Recovery Act), and
it shored up the banking system and stabilized the financial sector through
a series of measures including stress tests for banks and rigorous requirements
for banks to raise private capital and repay the government for funds
from the Troubled Asset Relief Program, and it rescued the American auto
industry.
Soon after the Recovery Act was passed, the contraction of GDP
slowed markedly to –0.7 percent in the second quarter of 2009 from
–6.7 percent in the preceding quarter. Economic growth turned positive
in the third quarter of 2009, and the economy has grown at an annualized
growth rate of 2.4 percent over the past 10 quarters.
The economy is continuing to recover from the most severe downturn
since the Great Depression. Despite numerous adverse headwinds—both
domestic and international—that threatened the recovery, the U.S. economy
displayed notable resilience in 2011. Private nonfarm employment growth,
shown in Figure 1-2, averaged 174,000 jobs per month in 2011, and 218,000
jobs per month over the past three months (ending in January 2012). Private
employers added more than 2.1 million jobs in 2011, the most in any year
since 2005. At $15.3 trillion dollars, real GDP now exceeds its pre-recession
peak. Clearly, this improvement since the end of the recession represents real
progress. Nevertheless, given the depth and severity of the Great Recession,
for purely statistical purposes, can pose privacy concerns that must be
addressed. But their use also has the potential to improve and enrich
existing official statistics. The Bureau of Economic Analysis, for example,
plans to use credit card data to improve its statistics on international
travel services. The Census Bureau is exploring the use of administrative
data on receipt of government benefits to improve estimates of
income in its household surveys. Other uses of both commercial and
administrative data to improve official statistics can easily be imagined.
Government statistical agencies can play a vital role in this burgeoning
field by providing survey data to improve the representativeness of
nonsurvey data, and the Federal statistical agencies can improve their
measures by integrating private-sector information. Progress in this
area will ultimately lead to better informed decisions by policymakers,
businesses, and families.
26 | Chapter 1
Data Watch 1-2: Revisions to Estimates of the Gross Domestic Product
The gross domestic product (GDP) is a summary measure of
the Nation’s economic activity, constructed as the sum of personal
consumption, gross private investment, net exports, and government
expenditures. The first estimate of GDP appears within a month after
the end of the quarter to which it applies and is based, in part, on
source data that are preliminary and incomplete. More complete data
are available for the second estimate, published the following month,
and the third estimate, released the month after that; each of these
revisions incorporates new or revised information from private and
public sources, including monthly and quarterly Census Bureau surveys.
Annual revisions to the National Income and Product Accounts allow
the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) to catch up in an organized
way with further revisions to the source data used to compute GDP
and to incorporate additional data available only at yearly frequencies.
About every five years, a benchmark revision incorporates data from the
Economic Censuses (Landefeld, Seskin, and Fraumeni 2008).
Between 1983 and 2009, revisions in the annualized growth rate
of real quarterly GDP between the first and latest available estimate
averaged 1.2 percentage points in absolute value (Fixler, Greenaway-
McGrevy, and Grimm 2011). A dramatic example is provided by the
revisions to the GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2008, which
was originally reported as –3.8 percent and later revised down to –8.9
percent in the annual revision released in July 2011. This was the largest
downward revision to the quarterly data ever reported. Taken as
a whole, the revised data for 2008 and 2009 indicated that the recent
recession was considerably more severe than originally reported.
While revisions to initial GDP estimates for the United States can
be substantial, they are smaller than the average for other large developed
economies (see, for example, Faust, Rogers, and Wright 2005).
And despite sometimes sizable revisions, early estimates of quarterly
GDP growth generally do a good job of capturing increases or decreases
in growth rates, as well as the timing of cyclical peaks and troughs (Fixler
and Grimm 2005). Further, research has found that there is only limited
potential to improve the initial GDP estimates given the contemporaneous
information available to the BEA (Dynan and Elmendorf 2001;
McKenzie, Tosetto, and Fixler 2008).
Still, more accurate early estimates of GDP would be helpful to
policymakers and businesses. Improving the quality and timeliness of
the source data available to the BEA is the best way to accomplish this
objective.
To Recover, Rebalance, and Rebuild | 27
stronger economic growth and faster job gains are needed to make full use
of the Nation’s human and physical resources.
On the whole, the pace of real GDP growth so far during this recovery
has been almost as fast as was the case at a similar stage of the recoveries
following the 1991 and 2001 recessions, which is noteworthy progress given
that the earlier recoveries received a strong boost from residential home
building and State and local government spending. Because of the excess
home and office construction during the housing bubble, construction of
structures has been notably weak so far in this recovery. In addition, once
Recovery Act funds began to phase out, State and local governments cut
spending and laid off workers at a faster pace. Both of these developments
are unprecedented headwinds that were not present during other postwar
recoveries.
As has been the pattern in recent recoveries, job growth has lagged
a resumption of economic growth. Job growth started in February 2010,
8 months after the official conclusion of the 2007–09 recession, versus 11
months after the end of the 1991 recession and 21 months after the end of
the 2001 recession. From February 2010 through January 2012 (months 8
through 31 after the official end of the recession), private-sector employers
added a net total of 3.7 million jobs. Over the comparable period of the
recovery from the 1991 recession, businesses added 3.0 million jobs (from
November 1991 to October 1993), and over the comparable period of the
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12
Total (excluding Census hiring)
Private
Figure 1-2
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, 2007–2011
Thousands, seasonally adjusted
Jan-12
Note: Shading denotes recession.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
28 | Chapter 1
recovery from the 2001 recession, busin,esses added 1.1 million jobs (July
2002 to June 2004).
The catastrophic financial crisis that exacerbated the economic
downturn during the second half of 2008 is an important reason why the
pace of the recovery has not been stronger. As discussed in Chapter 2, previous
research finds that recessions associated with financial crises not only
tend to be deeper than other types of economic downturns but also longer
lasting. Yet, as bad as the Great Recession was, the United States appears
to have fared relatively better than other countries that have experienced
severe financial crises, in large part because of the emergency actions that
were taken to strengthen the economy and stabilize the financial system. In
a group of 14 countries identified by the economists Carmen Reinhart and
Kenneth Rogoff as having experienced severe financial crises, these crises
were followed by a real GDP decline of more than 10 percent, on average. In
contrast, U.S. output decreased by substantially less. In addition, from each
country’s business cycle peak to their subsequent peak unemployment rate,
the unemployment rate across these 14 countries increased by an average
of 7.7 percentage points as a result of their financial crises (Figure 1-3).1
1 Figure 1-3 shows the average increase in the unemployment rate across 14 financial crisis
recessions, regardless of how many quarters it took the unemployment rate to reach its peak.
Figure 2-4, in contrast, shows the average rise in the unemployment rate in each quarter
elapsed from the beginning of each recession.
24.5
14.8
12.5
10.5
7.7
6.6
6.5
6.4
6.0
5.5
5.1
3.8
3.7
3.1
2.9
1.1
0 5 10 15 20 25
U.S. (1929:Q3)
Finland (1990:Q1)
Spain (1978:Q2)
Sweden (1990:Q1)
Average 14
Indonesia (1997:Q4)
South Korea (1997:Q3)
Hong Kong (1997:Q3)
Argentina (1998:Q2)
Colombia (1998:Q2)
U.S. (2007:Q4)
Norway (1988:Q1)
Philippines (1998:Q1)
Japan (1993:Q1)
Thailand (1996:Q3)
Malaysia (1997:Q4)
Figure 1-3
Unemployment Rate Increases in Recessions
Associated with Financial Crises
Percentage point increase from business-cycle peak
Note: Financial crises are from recessions identified by Reinhart and Rogoff (2009) as associated with major, systemic financial
crises. Each data point represents the increase from the business-cycle peak to the subsequent peak in the unemployment rate.
U.S. business-cycle peaks are defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research, and the business-cycle peaks of other
countries refer to the peaks of real GDP. Unemployment rates for Argentina, Colombia, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand are
based on annual data. "Average 14" excludes the 2007–2009 U.S. recession.
Source: Reinhart and Rogoff (2009); National Bureau of Economic Research; International Monetary Fund, World Economic
Outlook and International Financial Statistics; Moore (1961); national sources; CEA calculations.
To Recover, Rebalance, and Rebuild | 29
Although still a large increase relative to previous postwar recessions, the
U.S. unemployment rate rose by 5.1 percentage points from the last quarter
of 2007 to the fourth quarter of 2009, about 2.6 points less than the average
country’s experience.
The financial crisis was precipitated largely by lax credit standards,
inadequate oversight, excessive debt, and a boom-and-bust cycle in housing
prices, which led to unsustainable expansions in residential construction
and consumer spending. Chapter 4 highlights the challenges that remain
in the housing market, deriving primarily from institutional frictions, and
explains the Administration’s initiatives for addressing many of the interlinked
housing market problems.
Rebalancing at Home and Abroad
Once economic recovery began in mid-2009, the Obama
Administration took steps to restore balance to the U.S. economy to help
prevent the sorts of excesses that led to the financial crisis that erupted in
2008. In June 2009, the President presented his proposals for Wall Street
reform. Those proposals began a process that culminated at the end of July
2010 with President Obama signing the Wall Street Reform and Consumer
Protection Act of 2010.
Progress is being made on rebalancing the sources of economic
growth as well. Business investment has begun to rebound. The mix of
business investment has shifted from residential and structures toward
equipment and software, the types of investments that expand capacity, help
workers become more productive, and build a foundation for sustainable
growth. Exports as a share of GDP have also grown by 13 percent since the
end of the recession. The growth in exports puts the United States on track
to meet the President’s goal of doubling exports by the end of 2014.
More rebalancing is needed, and the adjustment process may continue
to cause headwinds for the recovery. As Chapter 3 details, government balance
sheets need to shift by both cutting unnecessary spending and raising
revenue to continue needed investments in the future. In September 2011,
President Obama submitted a balanced plan to the Joint Select Committee
on Deficit Reduction that would have reduced the deficit by $4 trillion
over 10 years with a mix of spending cuts and additional revenue, and
the President remains committed to pursuing a balanced approach to put
America on a sustainable fiscal path.
Finally, rebalancing in the economy is required so that the gains of
economic growth provide more opportunity for the middle class and those
struggling to get into the middle class. One step in this direction is provided
30 | Chapter 1
by the landmark Affordable Care Act, which will provide premium assistance
tax credits for those without access to affordable health insurance to obtain
coverage. The new law will also begin to lower the rate of health care cost
growth. Additionally, improvements in K–12 education and greater access
to postsecondary education will provide more opportunity for middle-class
families and those struggling to get into the middle class.
Restoring Fiscal Responsibility
In the late 1990s, the Federal Government was generating budget
surpluses, both annually and throughout the 10-year budget window, as well
as actually paying down the national debt. Since 2001, Federal debt has been
growing unsustainably, primarily as a result of the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts
that were skewed toward the wealthiest, increased military operations, the
unfunded Medicare prescription drug benefit, and slow job and economic
growth. Although safety net stabilizers and job creation measures in the
short term are important to keep the recovery gaining momentum, the longterm
Federal debt must be reduced.
Chapter 3 details how Federal debt shifted sharply from a downward
to an upward path to reach today’s unsustainable heights, and what the
options are for reducing the long-term debt. Recognizing the economic risks
associated with increased budget deficits, the Administration and Congress
agreed on a $1 trillion deficit reduction package in the Budget Control Act
of 2011—with an additional $1.2 trillion to $1.5 trillion in further reductions
scheduled to follow. In his Fiscal Year 2013 Budget, the President has proposed
a balanced approach that recognizes the need to prioritize spending
initiatives while aligning revenues with current spending.
Rebuilding a Stronger Economy
President Obama has emphasized that the United States can outeducate,
out-innovate, and out-build the rest of the world. Accomplishing
this goal will require a Federal Government that lives within its means and
makes targeted cuts to government spending while maintaining essential
safety net services. But it will also require continuing to invest in the
Nation’s future—training and educating workers; increasing the commitment
to research and technology; and building new roads and bridges, highspeed
rail, and high-speed Internet. In cities and towns throughout America,
the benefits of these investments are clear.
Investments in education, innovation, clean energy, and infrastructure
are an essential down payment on the future. These investments today
will be the foundation of long-term output and employment growth in the
To Recover, Rebalance, and Rebuild | 31
future, robust wage growth for all Americans, and improvements in the
quality of life. As emphasized, the Nation can afford these investments only
by getting its fiscal house in order. The Federal Government has to live
within its means to make room for things it absolutely needs, without jeopardizing
essential safety net programs or the ability to make investments for
the future. That is why President Obama urged Congress to find common
ground so that government policies can, with the private sector, accelerate,
not impede, economic growth and sharpen America’s competitive edge in
the world.
Measured GDP growth is not the only contributor to the quality of life
that Americans seek to enjoy. Government investments as well as regulatory
policies can improve well-being by correcting market failures and protecting
safety, health, and environmental quality. In fashioning long-term policies,
the Nation should not overlook those factors that contribute to well-being
even if they are not fully captured in economic statistics.
Jobs and Income: Today and Tomorrow
Problems that were building in the labor market for well over a decade
were amplified by the Great Recession. Chapter 6 explains where the labor
market is today and distinguishes between the effects of the recession and
longer-term trends in employment and income that predated the recession.
The goals of current policies are twofold: to increase job growth in the near
term, and to prepare Americans of all ages for the jobs of the future. The
chapter discusses the President’s job creation proposals and the key role they
can play in supporting job growth in the near term.
One notable long-term trend that can be stopped is the sharp decline
in manufacturing jobs. From 2000 to 2007, the economy lost nearly 4 million
manufacturing jobs, as these positions migrated overseas. Another 2 million
manufacturing jobs were lost during the 2007–09 recession. Thanks, in part,
to the President’s efforts to rescue the American auto industry, manufacturing
companies have been adding jobs for the first time since the late 1990s.
On net, 400,000 manufacturing jobs have been added in the past two years.
The auto industry was central to the rebound in manufacturing: although
the auto industry accounts for only 6 percent of industrial production, it is
responsible for 23 percent of the increase in industrial production since the
end of the recession.
As discussed in Chapter 5 and Chapter 6, a number of companies have
indicated that they are bringing jobs back to the United States because of the
Nation’s high productivity and growing cost advantages. The President has
laid out a bold agenda to support this trend and to encourage more manufacturing
production at home.
32 | Chapter 1
Investments in education will build on America’s highly productive
workforce and are essential to prepare today’s children for the jobs
of tomorrow. Increasing educational attainment for low-income children
would substantially improve their chances of moving up the rungs of the
ladder of opportunity. As shown in Figure 1-4, the average earnings of
college-educated workers has risen to a level twice as high as that of workers
with only a high school diploma. And the unemployment rate of college
graduates is about half of the national average. Yet while the benefits of
education have grown, the growth in the relative share of college-educated
American workers has slowed since 1980 (Goldin and Katz 2008). In the last
few years, however, there has been an increase in school enrollment, and
the President has set a goal for the United States to have the highest share
of 25- to 34-year-olds with a college degree of any country by 2020. Chapter
6 lays out the strides the Obama Administration has made in bettering the
education system at every level, making higher education more affordable,
and improving job training programs.
Making sure American workers have the right set of skills is also critical
for a revival of manufacturing jobs and jobs in other high-paying sectors.
The United States has a comparative advantage in high-technology, innovative
sectors, but jobs in such sectors require a highly skilled workforce. As
technology changes, advanced manufacturing products can become an even
more important segment of the U.S. economy. Cars, for example, are now a
highly advanced product: fully 30 percent of the value of many automobiles
is derived from computer software, electronic components, and intellectual
property, according to industry estimates. Thus, the President’s education
and job training strategy is a necessary complement to proposals to
strengthen the manufacturing sector.
Preserving and Modernizing the Safety Net
The recession highlighted the need for a strong safety net as millions
of Americans, through no fault of their own, lost their jobs and saw their savings
decline. In addition to cushioning the shock of income loss, safety net
programs are important for long-term growth because they help maintain
consumer demand in a downturn and make it easier for entrepreneurs to
take risks, knowing that if they fail, they will have access to a minimum level
of support.
As the economy has undergone major changes, the safety net has not
always adapted with it. Chapter 7 describes this changing landscape and the
steps the Administration has taken to modernize the safety net for a more
dynamic economy and more mobile workforce. The President has already
reformed health care to give millions more Americans access to care and to
To Recover, Rebalance, and Rebuild | 33
bring down costs. He has also called for the largest changes to the unemployment
insurance program in 60 years and proposes to improve retirement
preparedness by broadening the reach of individual retirement accounts,
simplifying financial decisions for retirement savers and retirees, and promoting
financial literacy.
Improving the Quality of Life through Smart Regulation,
Innovation, Clean Energy, and Public Investment
Rebuilding the American economy entails investments in the foundations
of economic growth—education, infrastructure, and research and
development. Government investments in innovation and infrastructure
and smart government regulations improve the quality of life and help the
economy to operate more efficiently.
The President has reduced burdensome regulations, where possible,
but smart regulations have also enabled Americans to live longer,
healthier, and more productive lives. As discussed in Chapter 8, the Obama
Administration has made significant reforms to the regulatory system to
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
1963 1972 1981 1990 1999 2008
Source: CEA calculations using March Current Population Survey data for workers aged
25–65 who worked at least 35 hours a week and for at least 50 weeks in the calendar year.
Before 1992, education groups are defined based on the highest grade of school or year of
college completed. Beginning in 1992, groups are defined based on the highest degree or
diploma earned. Earnings are deflated using the CPI-U. Calculations are based on survey
data collected in March of each year and reflect average wage and salary income for the
previous calendar year.
Ratio
Figure 1-4
Earnings Ratio: College Degree or More to High School Degree,
1963–2010
34 | Chapter 1
better measure relevant costs and benefits and to establish a review process
that will result in continual improvement of the regulatory architecture.
A focus on quality of life also emphasizes public investments in innovation
and infrastructure. Technological breakthroughs improve the quality
of life in ways that are not fully captured by measures of economic activity.
Cellular telephones, for example, generate large increases in convenience
that benefit consumers without being fully captured in measures of GDP.
Similarly, investments in infrastructure improve productivity but also have
other, even larger benefits. A strong infrastructure system, for example,
facilitates shorter commuting times, increasing leisure time and improving
well-being.
Ensuring that America has abundant clean energy to power the
economy of the future is also a prerequisite for raising the quality of life and
enhancing the Nation’s security. Early in 2011, President Obama noted that,
“The United States of America cannot afford to bet our long-term prosperity
and security on a resource that will eventually run out.” The Administration
laid out a Blueprint for a Secure Energy Future, a comprehensive strategy
that focuses on three key areas: developing and securing America’s energy
supplies, including oil and natural gas; providing consumers with choices
to reduce costs and save energy; and innovating our way to a clean energy
future. This past year has seen remarkable progress toward reaching many
of these energy goals. In 2011, domestic oil production was the highest it has
been in the past eight years and natural gas production reached an all-time
high. At the same time, the Administration has advanced common-sense
new standards to ensure the safe and responsible development of these
resources.
Conclusion
The U.S. economy has been expanding for two and a half years, but
the pace of economic growth and job growth has not been fast enough given
the deep hole that was created by the sharp recession that started at the end
of 2007. The economic challenges that the United States faces are the direct
result of problems that took years to build up and that came to a boil in the
financial and economic crisis of 2007–09. While actions taken to prevent a
deeper recession and to strengthen the recovery have made a difference, the
Nation is still recovering from that profound crisis and the problems that
led to it. Because household income for vast swaths of the middle class had
stagnated, many families borrowed to support their consumption and to buy
houses that later fell in value. Families are now paying down debt, which is
restraining consumption and economic growth. Meanwhile, because of the
To Recover, Rebalance, and Rebuild | 35
collapse of the housing boom, builders have been reluctant to build new
homes, and construction workers had a 16.4 percent unemployment rate in
2011. And the government budget moved from surplus and debt reduction
at the end of the 1990s to deficit and increasing debt in the early 2000s, as
the priorities in Washington at that time shifted to increased spending to
prosecute two wars while cutting taxes in a skewed and inefficient way.
These are the Nation’s principal economic challenges, not uncertainty
about economic policies, taxes, or regulations. To economists, the solution
to these problems is clear: the Nation needs to raise demand for its goods
and services in the short run to strengthen and sustain the economic recovery
and put more people back to work, while pursuing credible policies to
return to a fiscally sustainable path in the intermediate and long term and
investing more in education, innovation, clean domestic energy, research
and development, and infrastructure to raise long-run growth and expand
the middle class.
37
C H A P T E R 2
THE YEAR IN REVIEW AND
THE YEARS AHEAD
The U.S. economy continued to recover in 2011 from the deep recession
that began at the end of 2007. The real value of goods and services produced
in the economy, as measured by gross domestic product adjusted for
changes in prices (real GDP), has now grown in each of the past 10 quarters.
In the third quarter of 2011, real output surpassed the level last reached at
the business-cycle peak in the fourth quarter of 2007. Employment continued
to expand in 2011, and the private sector created more than 3 million
new jobs in 2010 and 2011, about in line with the recovery from the 1991
recession and faster than the recovery from the 2001 recession.
However, the level of unemployment remains too high, and the pace
of the recovery in output and employment would in all likelihood be faster
if it were not for the lingering effects of the financial crisis. The destruction
of household wealth during the financial crisis and the deep recession that
followed appears to have restrained the growth of consumption during the
recovery, particularly in services. Investment in new residential construction
also remains much weaker than in typical recoveries, a reflection of
soft demand since the recession as well as the vast amount of overbuilding
of houses during the years leading up to the crisis. Growth in other components
of demand, such as business investment and exports, has followed
trajectories more typical of business-cycle recoveries, and in some cases has
been even stronger than average.
To put the current U.S. recovery in historical and international context,
this chapter presents an overview of the influential work by Charles
Kindleberger (1978) and Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff (2009), who
argue that recessions associated with financial crises are typically deeper
than normal downturns and that the recoveries that follow tend to take
longer. As severe as the recession was, the drop in U.S. real GDP after the
financial crisis of 2008 was smaller than the average decline in recessions
associated with other severe, systemic financial crises in various countries
38 | Chapter 2
over the past 40 years. Similarly, the rise in U.S. unemployment was less
extreme than the average experience following these financial crises, and it
peaked earlier. As of January 2012, the unemployment rate has fallen by 1.7
percentage points since peaking in October 2009.
This chapter also reviews the developments of 2011 for individual
sectors of the U.S. economy. In the household sector, credit conditions
continued to improve, and purchases of durable goods—such as motor
vehicles—rose at a robust pace. Households continued to work down debt
in 2011. As noted, growth in consumption remained somewhat restrained,
however, as households continued to pay down debt and growth in nominal
income slowed. In the business sector, investment in equipment and software
posted solid gains in 2011, and global demand for U.S. goods and services
was strong. The growth in U.S. exports supported job creation in 2011
as well as the continued expansion of manufacturing output. Conditions in
residential real estate markets continued to stabilize in 2011, with a modest
uptick toward the end of the year, but demand for new housing remained
weak. Spending by State and local governments was also severely restrained
in 2011 by tight budgets. Much of the weakness in these areas can be tied
directly to the financial crisis and the problems that precipitated the crisis.
An Economy in Recovery: Key Events of 2011
Real GDP rose 1.6 percent over the four quarters of 2011 after having
risen 3.1 percent in 2010. Output expanded at an annual rate of only 0.8
percent in the first half of the year, when a series of shocks—among them a
sharp rise in the price of oil due to turmoil in the Middle East—appeared to
reduce consumer and business sentiment and dampen economic activity. As
the effects of the transitory shocks waned in the second half of the year, real
GDP growth picked up to an average annual rate of 2.3 percent (Figure 2-1).
Nonfarm private payroll employment expanded by 2.1 million jobs
during the twelve months of 2011, having added 1.3 million jobs in the last
10 months of 2010. The recovery in payroll employment, like that in real
output, was uneven over the months of 2011. Payrolls expanded moderately
near the beginning of the year, but job creation slowed in the spring and
summer before picking up again in the fall. The unemployment rate fell over
the course of the year, from 9.4 percent in December 2010 to 8.5 percent in
December 2011, and then to 8.3 percent in January 2012.
A Series of Global Shocks and Revised GDP Data. A succession of
global shocks turned 2011 into a turbulent year for the U.S. economy. The
collapse of Libyan crude oil production during that nation’s revolution
caused world oil markets to tighten near the beginning of the year. The price
The Year in Review and the Years Ahead | 39
refiners paid for crude oil rose from an average of $78 a barrel in the second
half of 2010 to $101 a barrel in the first half of 2011. The $23 per-barrel
increase led to higher gasoline prices, eroded the real purchasing power of
disposable personal income by more than $50 billion at an annual rate, and
dampened consumer confidence. Consumers appear to have reacted with a
combination of reduced spending on other goods and services and a lower
saving rate than might otherwise have been the case. The 2 percentage point
cut in the payroll tax for workers that President Obama proposed and the
Congress passed near the end of 2010 helped offset the impact of higher oil
prices.
Another supply shock hit the world economy in March 2011, when
an earthquake struck northeastern Japan and set off a tsunami, a disaster
that resulted in a devastating human toll and required a massive rebuilding
effort. Economic activity across the globe slowed because damage to Japan’s
electrical grid disrupted industrial output throughout the country. As a
result, global supply chains in some industries faced shortages of key parts.
In the United States, vehicle assembly plants were forced to cut production
when supplies of critical parts produced in Japan became scarce. U.S. motor
vehicle production fell 21.2 percent at an annual rate in the second quarter
before rebounding in the third and fourth quarters.
In the summer, concerns mounted over sovereign debts and financial
institutions in Europe and the likelihood of a global slowdown in economic
0.5
3.6
3.0
1.7
-1.8
1.3
-3.7
-8.9
-6.7
-0.7
1.7
3.8 3.9 3.8
2.5 2.3
0.4
1.3
1.8
2.8
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
2007:Q1 2008:Q1 2009:Q1 2010:Q1 2011:Q1
Percent change (annual rate)
Figure 2-1
Real GDP Growth by Quarter, 2007–2011
2011:Q4
Note: Shaded area represents recession.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Income and Product Accounts.
40 | Chapter 2
growth. In addition, the contentious debate in Congress over raising the
statutory debt ceiling kept financial markets on edge and appeared to weigh
on equity markets over the summer and fall.
In addition, revised estimates of U.S. real GDP released by the Bureau
of Economic Analysis (BEA) in July 2011 revealed that the 2007–09 recession
was more severe than had been originally reported. Real GDP fell at an
average annual rate of 7.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first
quarter of 2009, the sharpest two-quarter contraction since quarterly GDP
data began being collected in 1947. The change to the estimate for the fourth
quarter of 2008 was particularly stark. The BEA originally estimated that
output contracted at an annual rate of 3.8 percent that quarter, but its July
2011 revised estimate showed an 8.9 percent rate of contraction. The downward
change of 5.1 percentage points was the largest downward adjustment
to the quarterly data ever reported. The BEA also revised down the average
annual rate of growth during the recovery (from the second quarter of 2009
through the first quarter of 2011) by 0.2 percentage point, to 2.6 percent.
Policy Developments in late 2010 and 2011. Supportive policies
enacted near the end of 2010—the Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance
Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act (TRUIRJCA)—cushioned the
adverse shocks experienced in 2011. Provisions in the legislation included
a 2 percentage point reduction in workers’ payroll taxes and a continuation
of the extended and emergency unemployment benefit programs through
the end of 2011. In the absence of this legislation, real GDP growth over the
four quarters of 2011 would have been lower by 0.9 to 2.8 percentage points,
according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO 2011b). Because the legislative
package was constructed to be temporary (including mostly one- and
two-year provisions), it had little effect on the long-term deficit.
The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (Recovery Act),
enacted in early 2009 when real GDP was contracting at an annual rate of
more than 6 percent and employment was falling by more than 700,000 jobs
a month, also continued to support the level of real GDP in 2011, although
its effect, which had been designed to be strongest during 2009 and 2010,
was gradually declining. In 2011, Recovery Act–related outlays, obligations,
and tax cuts totaled $117 billion, down from $350 billion a year earlier, as
measured in the National Income and Product Accounts. The Council of
Economic Advisers (CEA 2011) estimates that the Recovery Act increased
GDP as of the second quarter of 2011, relative to what it otherwise would
have been, by 2.0 to 2.9 percent and raised employment by between 2.2 million
and 4.2 million jobs. The CBO and outside analysts have also presented
estimates in this range.
The Year in Review and the Years Ahead | 41
In 2011, the Administration proposed additional steps to strengthen
and sustain the economic recovery in the wake of world events that posed
increasing risks to growth. Before a joint session of Congress on September
8, 2011, the President proposed the American Jobs Act to strengthen the
current recovery and spur the creation of new jobs. The American Jobs Act
incorporated a number of proposals that some independent economists
estimated could have boosted payrolls by 1.3 million to 1.9 million jobs
by the end of 2012 (for example, Macroeconomic Advisers 2011). Equally
important, the American Jobs Act would not have added to the long-term
Federal Budget deficit. The CBO (2011a) estimated that revenue raisers recommended
by the President in September would have more than offset the
cost of the proposed tax cuts and investments. Specifically, the bill proposed
limiting deductions and exclusions for upper-income taxpayers, taxing carried
interest earned on private equity and hedge fund investments at the
same rate as ordinary income, and eliminating certain tax provisions for oil
and gas production companies.
The full American Jobs Act did not pass Congress in the form that the
President proposed. Nevertheless, the President kept pressing for measures
to support economic growth and job creation and will keep doing so until
every American looking for work can get a job. In November, the President
won enactment of one element of the American Jobs Act: a new tax credit
for America’s veterans that provides up to $5,600 to businesses that hire
veterans who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and $9,600 for
businesses that hire a veteran with a service-related disability.
And, in the waning days of 2011, the President signed into law a
2-month extension of the 2 percentage point reduction in workers’ payroll
taxes and of the emergency and extended unemployment insurance programs.
Those initiatives were mostly paid for by an increase in guarantee
fees charged to lenders by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The President has
called on Congress to extend these policies for the entire calendar year. The
extension of the payroll tax cut for the rest of 2012 would help approximately
160 million full-time and part-time workers and provide a typical worker
with an additional $40 in each bi-weekly paycheck. The full-year extension
of unemployment insurance programs would prevent 5 million unemployed
workers from exhausting benefits this year and help support the equivalent
of about 500,000 cumulative job-years of employment by the end of 2014 as
these benefits are spent.
Policy actions by the Federal Reserve also supported the recovery
in 2011. Monetary policy remained accommodative throughout the year,
with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintaining a target
range for the federal funds rate of 0 to 0.25 percent. During the first half
42 | Chapter 2
of the year, the FOMC continued to advise that economic conditions were
“l(fā)ikely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an
extended period.” In June, the Federal Reserve completed the program first
announced in November 2010 under which it purchased $600 billion of
longer-term Treasury securities, and the FOMC maintained its policy of
reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of debt and mortgagebacked
securities issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
The FOMC took steps in the second half of 2011 and in the early
part of 2012 to further ease conditions in financial markets and to provide
additional support to the recovery. In the statement released following its
August 2011 meeting, the FOMC said that it expected economic conditions
to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through
mid-2013. In January 2012, the committee extended this period until at least
late-2014. The committee voted at its September 2011 meeting to extend the
average maturity of the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities in
order to lower longer-term interest rates. In response to the escalation of
the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, the FOMC approved an extension of the
temporary U.S. dollar liquidity swap arrangements with a number of foreign
central banks in June and again in November.1
An Economy in Recovery: The Lingering
Effects of Financial Crises
The 2007–08 financial crisis and the drop in economic activity during
the recession were unprecedented. In the two and a half years that have
elapsed since the official end of the recession, real U.S. GDP has risen 6.2
percent, enough to recoup the 5.1 percent loss of real output recorded during
the recession. The pace of GDP growth during the recovery has been almost
the same as the rates of growth observed during the recoveries that followed
the 1991 and 2001 recessions (Figure 2-2), although private employment has
grown at a faster pace than in the 2001 recession.
A major reason that the rate of real GDP growth has not been faster
during the current recovery involves the lingering effects of the financial
crisis. As argued by Kindleberger (1978) and Reinhart and Rogoff (2009),
recessions linked with financial crises tend to be deeper than other recessions,
and the subsequent recoveries take longer. Hall (2010) and Woodford
(2010) argue that recessions around financial crises are worse, in part,
1 The Federal Reserve receives collateral in the form of foreign currency during the life of the
transaction. The exchange rate used for the transaction is based on the market exchange rate at
the time of the transaction. The swap is unwound at the same exchange rate, so the Fed is not
exposed to any currency risk resulting from the transaction.
The Year in Review and the Years Ahead | 43
because the critical intermediation role played by the financial sector is
disrupted. Financial crises also tend to spread across countries, temporarily
reducing the volume of world trade and restraining growth of output during
the recovery, as noted by Reinhart and Rogoff (2009) and IMF (2009).
Housing slumps are also typically associated with slower growth during
recoveries (Howard, Martin, and Wilson 2011).
Some sectors of the U.S. economy are recovering at a moderate pace,
while growth in other sectors continues to be restrained by the lingering
effects of the financial crisis. In the current recovery, real U.S. exports have
risen at a robust pace and have exceeded their average rate of growth in the
preceding eight recoveries. Business fixed investment has been about as
strong in the current recovery as in the average U.S. recovery. Real residential
investment, in contrast, had barely returned to its level at the business-cycle
trough by the very end of 2011, whereas this type of investment in a typical
U.S. recovery would have increased roughly 34 percent over a comparable
period. In addition, real expenditures by State and local governments have
continued to decline, on balance, during the current recovery, instead of
rising, as they had in every other postwar recovery.
Personal consumption expenditures have risen more slowly in the
current recovery than in the average U.S. recovery. The slower recovery
in consumer spending may partly reflect the sharp losses in household
net worth caused by the financial crisis and the high levels of consumer
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
-12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 Trough 2 4 6 8 10 12
Indexed to 100 at NBER-defined trough
Quarters from trough
Current
(2009:Q2 trough)
1991
2001
Figure 2-2
Real GDP During Recoveries
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Income and Product Accounts; National
Bureau of Economic Research; CEA calculations.
44 | Chapter 2
debt—including mortgage debt—taken on during the period leading up
to the financial crisis. After the collapse in house prices destroyed large
amounts of household net worth, households have reduced their consumption
as they work down debt taken on before the crisis.
To put the 2007–09 U.S. recession in international and historical
contexts, Figure 2-3 compares the depth and duration of the 2007-09 recession
in the United States with 14 recessions including the 1929 downturn in
the United States, a group of recessions categorized by Reinhart and Rogoff
(2009) as occurring near major systemic banking crises.2 The horizontal bars
on the left of the figure refer to the decline in real output measured in each
of the recessions, and the bars on the right report the length of each recession,
measured as the number of quarters between the peak and trough of
real output.
While the drop in real U.S. GDP reached as high as 8.9 percent at an
annual rate in the last quarter of 2008, the figure shows that the cumulative
decline in GDP was 5.1 percent during the recession. This was the biggest
drop in U.S. output during any business-cycle contraction since the Great
Depression, although it was less drastic than the declines in output experienced
in most other financial crises, and well below the average decline of
10.2 percent. The duration of the recent U.S. downturn, which measured six
quarters, was about 10 percent shorter than the average. The breadth and
speed of the emergency economic recovery measures that were put in place
to address the financial and economic crisis, including the Recovery Act
and Financial Stability Plan, as well as extraordinary actions by the Federal
Reserve Board, are the main reasons why the economy avoided a steeper
and more prolonged decline, with growth returning by the middle of 2009.
Figure 2-4 compares the rise in the unemployment rate in the United
States between the fourth quarter of 2007 and January 2012 with the average
rise in unemployment following the business-cycle peaks for the 14 financial
crises shown in Figure 2-3. Between the fourth quarter of 2007 and the
fourth quarter of 2009, the U.S. unemployment rate rose more sharply than
the average cumulative rise over the first 8 quarters after these business-cycle
peaks, but then it peaked and declined over the next two years—an outcome
less severe than the average rise in unemployment around other financial
crises. If the United States had followed the path of the average country during
a financial crisis recession, the unemployment rate would have been 10.4
percent in January 2012 instead of 8.3 percent.
2 The crises shown in Figure 2-3 are the major, systemic banking crises included in Reinhart
and Rogoff (2009) Table 14-3. The analysis here differs from Reinhart and Rogoff (2009) in
that we use seasonally adjusted quarterly real GDP rather than annual real GDP per capita.
The Year in Review and the Years Ahead | 45
-30.7
-19.9
-17.8
-14.9
-12.7
-11.2
-10.2
-8.8
-8.3
-6.8
-5.6
-5.1
-2.8
-1.6
-1.2
-0.4
14
15
4
8
13
3
6.6
5
3
4
12
6
3
3
3
3
United States (1929:Q3)
Argentina (1998:Q2)
Indonesia (1997:Q4)
Thailand (1996:Q3)
Finland (1990:Q1)
Malaysia (1997:Q4)
Average 14
Hong Kong (1997:Q3)
South Korea (1997:Q3)
Colombia (1998:Q2)
Sweden (1990:Q1)
United States (2007:Q4)
Norway (1988:Q1)
Japan (1993:Q1)
Philippines (1998:Q1)
Spain (1978:Q2)
-35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25
Figure 2-3
Real GDP in Recessions Associated with Financial Crises
Percent decline peak-to-trough
Note: Financial crisis dates are from Reinhart and Rogoff (2009). U.S. business cycles are defined by the National Bureau of
Economic Research, and the business cycles of other countries refer to the peaks and troughs of real GDP. "Average 14"
excludes current U.S. cycle.
Source: Reinhart and Rogoff (2009); National Bureau of Economic Research; International Monetary Fund, World Economic
Outlook (2010) and data from authors; Gordon and Krenn (2010); national sources; CEA calculations.
0 10 20
Duration of downturn
(quarters)
Percent decline Duration in quarters
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Figure 2-4
Unemployment Rate Increases in Recessions
Associated with Financial Crises
Percentage point change from business-cycle peak
Quarters after business-cycle peak
Average 14
United States
(2007:Q4-2012:Q1)
Note: "Average 14" shows the average rise in the unemployment rate in each quarter after the business-cycle peaks identified by Reinhart
and Rogoff (2009) as being associated with major, systemic financial crises. Financial crises are shown in Figure 2-3. U.S. business-cycle
peaks are defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research, and the business-cycle peaks of other countries refer to the peaks of real
GDP. Quarterly unemployment rates for Argentina, Colombia, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand are based on annual data. The 2012:Q1
value for the United States is through January 2012.
Source: Reinhart and Rogoff (2009); National Bureau of Economic Research; International Monetary Fund, International Financial
Statistics, World Economic Outlook (2010), and data from authors; Moore (1961); national sources; CEA calculations.
46 | Chapter 2
According to analysis by the Congressional Budget Office and privatesector
forecasters, the Recovery Act, the Financial Stability Plan, and the
extraordinary and exigent actions taken by the Federal Reserve had sizable,
positive effects on U.S. GDP and employment in 2009. Rather than plunging
into what many think could have been a second Great Depression, the U.S.
economy began to grow again in the second half of 2009. As a result, the
2007–09 recession was shallower and shorter in duration than the average
recession experienced by a country after a major financial crisis, and unemployment
started to come down sooner and swifter.
Developments in 2011 and the Near-Term Outlook
Consumption and Saving
Consumer spending—a category that makes up about 70 percent
of GDP—rose moderately in 2011, as credit conditions continued to ease,
household liabilities fell relative to income, and the labor market continued
to recover. Gains over the year were uneven, however, in the face of upheavals
at the beginning of the year. Partly reflecting these shocks, real consumer
spending rose at an annual rate of only 1.4 percent in the first half of 2011,
having increased more than 3 percent at an annual rate in the second half
of 2010. The slowdown in spending growth would have been more severe in
the absence of the workers’ payroll tax cut, which offset oil price shocks early
in the year and supported household consumption.
The disturbances that slowed consumption growth in the early part
of the year proved transitory, and their effects dissipated in the second half
of the year; oil prices stabilized over the summer, and by the fourth quarter,
production (and availability) of motor vehicles had returned to levels that
prevailed before the earthquake in Japan disrupted supply chains. The
second half of 2011 brought new challenges, however. Concerns about the
weakening pace of growth in several industrialized economies—most notably
in Europe—escalated during the summer, and the contentious debates
held in Congress over raising the statutory debt ceiling unsettled equity
markets. The stock market and consumer confidence both fell in the third
quarter before rebounding in the fourth quarter and early 2012. Despite
these headwinds, the growth rate of real consumer spending picked up in the
third and fourth quarters to an average annual rate of 1.9 percent.
Several key developments in 2011 shaped the contours of consumer
spending.
Household Income in 2011. Nominal personal income grew 3.9 percent
during the four quarters of 2011, a somewhat slower pace of growth
The Year in Review and the Years Ahead | 47
than in 2010. Growth in nominal personal income was held down in 2011 by
a slowdown in job growth near the middle of the year. Real disposable personal
income, which is personal income less personal taxes and adjusted for
price changes, edged down 0.1 percent over the four quarters of 2011 after
having risen 3.5 percent in the year-earlier period. The purchasing power
of wages and salaries was curtailed somewhat in 2011 by a run-up in food
and energy prices in the first half of the year, which appeared to have passed
through to the prices of some other goods and services as well. As noted,
tax policies passed near the end of 2010 helped cushion some of the effects
of these price increases on consumers while providing an additional boost
to income. The Administration seeks to extend the workers’ payroll tax cut
in 2012 and to provide additional immediate support for aggregate demand
through the continuation of extended unemployment insurance benefits
and other measures initially proposed in the American Jobs Act.
Household Wealth and Saving in 2011. The wealth-to-income ratio,
depicted in Figure 2-5, declined in the third quarter of 2011 after rising, on
balance, since the beginning of 2009. The consumption rate (shown in the
figure as the share of disposable income consumed) tends to fluctuate with
the wealth-to-income ratio. As a rule of thumb, a one dollar drop in wealth
tends to reduce annual consumer spending by about two to five cents,
although the source of the wealth change (housing or equities, for example)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1952 1960 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000 2008
Total-wealth-to-DPI
ratio (right axis)
Consumption/DPI ratio Years of disposable income
2011:Q4
Consumption-to-DPI ratio (left axis)
Figure 2-5
Consumption and Wealth Relative to
Disposable Personal Income (DPI), 1952–2011
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Income and Product Accounts; Federal
Reserve Board, Z.1; CEA calculations.
Net housing
wealth-to-DPI ratio
(right axis)
Stock market
wealth-to-DPI
ratio (right axis)
2011:Q3
2011:Q3
2011:Q3
48 | Chapter 2
also may matter. The decline in the wealth-to-income ratio from the second
quarter of 2007 to its low point in the first quarter of 2009 amounted to 1.8
years of income. (In other words, household wealth declined by the amount
of income earned in 1.8 years). The drop in the wealth-to-income ratio
over this period was the deepest sustained decline since 1952, when these
data began to be compiled. Of the total decline, 1.1 years were lost from the
decline in stock market wealth, and about 0.6 year from net housing wealth.
All told, a drop in wealth of this magnitude could be expected to reduce
personal consumption expenditures by about 6.7 percent.
Equity prices fell during the summer of 2011 before regaining most of
the losses toward the end of the year. Dri,ven in part by the rise in uncertainty
during the debt ceiling debate as well as external events in Japan and Europe,
consumer sentiment also dropped to low levels in the summer before partially
rebounding toward year’s end.
Households continued to work down their debt through the third
quarter of 2011 (the latest data available as this report goes to press). The personal
saving rate—expressed in the National Income and Product Accounts
as a share of disposable personal income—fluctuated around 5 percent for
the first half of 2011, about the same rate as in 2010 but below the average
rate of about 6 percent observed in the first half of 2009. The personal saving
rate fell in the second half of 2011 to 3.8 percent, a decline from the first half
of 2011 that may have partially reflected the pick up in purchases of consumer
durables, especially new vehicles. Purchases of new motor vehicles,
are counted as a consumption outlay in the National Income and Product
Accounts even though households view these purchases as investment, and
so a rise in vehicle purchases reduces the personal saving rate.
Looking ahead, the personal saving rate appears roughly consistent
at current levels with household wealth. As a consequence, while some further
drops in the saving rate are possible, the growth rate of real consumer
spending in the years ahead would be expected to largely mirror the growth
rate of income, barring a dramatic change in asset prices. Even so, further
increases in household purchases of durable goods, perhaps reflecting pentup
demand for motor vehicle purchases that were deferred during the recession,
may reduce the saving rate temporarily.
Some of the recent patterns in aggregate spending and saving behavior—
including the sluggish growth in consumer spending—may reflect the
sharp rise over the past 30 years in the inequality in the income distribution
in the United States. As the Congressional Budget Office recently noted, the
top 1 percent of families had a 278 percent increase in their real after-tax
income from 1979 to 2007, while the middle 60 percent had an increase of
less than 40 percent. As a result of these trends, the very top income earners
The Year in Review and the Years Ahead | 49
have pulled much further ahead of everyone else. (See Chapter 6 for a discussion
of shifts in the income distribution.)
The effects of this dramatic shift in the income distribution on aggregate
demand are hard to document, although some of the spending patterns
in the Consumer Expenditure Survey reveal evidence of the increasing
inequality of income. For example, the share of income spent on luxury
goods and services, such as entertainment, relative to necessities, such as
food, is higher for high-income households than for low-income households,
and this gap has widened over time (Aguiar and Bils 2011).
Several authors have argued that increases in inequality have likely
adversely affected the economy.3 For example, the rise in income inequality
may have reduced aggregate demand, because the highest income earners
typically spend a lower share of their income—at least over intermediate
horizons—than do other income groups. The following calculation illustrates
the potential magnitude of this effect. As shown in recent research
by Piketty and Saez (2003, 2010), the share of all income going to the top 1
percent has risen sharply over the past three decades, rising by 13.5 percentage
points, from 10 percent to 23.5 percent, between 1979 and 2007. This is
the equivalent of about $1.2 trillion of annual income in 2007. Research on
the saving rate (or marginal propensity to consume) of families at the very
top of the income distribution is scarce, but one study (Dynan, Skinner, and
Zeldes 2004) implies that the top 1 percent of households save about half of
their total current income, while the population at large has a saving rate of
about 10 percent of their total income.4 This finding implies that if another
$1.2 trillion had been earned by the bottom 99 percent instead of the top 1
percent of income earners, annual consumption could have been about $480
billion—or about 5 percent—higher.
There are many caveats to this calculation, because the marginal propensity
to consume is not well established for the extreme upper end of the
income distribution. In addition, aggregate consumption may not have been
reduced by a full 5 percent because the dramatic shift in the income distribution
likely led many households to accrue more debt. In his book Fault
Lines, Raghuram Rajan (Rajan 2010) argues that slow income growth for the
middle class led, in part, to the rising levels of debt and the overleveraging
that played a central role in the 2007–08 financial crisis.5
3 See Rajan (2010) and Reich (2010). Kaldor (1956) provides some early research in this area.
4 The saving rate cited here refers to the change in real net worth as a share of real pre-tax
income, a measure that differs from the personal saving rate reported in the National Income
and Product Accounts.
5 Note that the increase in leverage by the middle class may explain why the aggregate saving
rate did not rise despite the shift in income to high savers.
50 | Chapter 2
Increases in the inequality of income have been developing for some
time, but their effects on aggregate demand may have become more pronounced
in the wake of the financial crisis. Increasing levels of debt during
1979–2007 may have masked the influence of the rising inequality of
incomes on aggregate consumer spending, because increased access to credit
card debt, other consumer loans, and mortgage loans allowed the growth of
purchases to outpace the growth of income for most income groups. With
the onset of the recession and financial crisis, however, the scope for this
level of borrowing came to an abrupt end. Access to credit, particularly for
mortgages, was severely restricted, and the average consumer was left with
elevated levels of debt taken on before the crisis. Since the crisis, the process
of deleveraging appears to have reduced consumption below what it would
have been otherwise. By targeting support to a broad group of American
workers—including those with a higher propensity to spend additional
income—the measures the President put forward in the American Jobs Act,
like the payroll tax cut and extension of unemployment benefits, are likely to
have a greater impact on consumption and aggregate demand than alternative
measures.
Other Influences on Consumption in 2011. For the second consecutive
year, lending standards eased, as reported in the Federal Reserve’s senior
loan officer survey, and consumer credit expanded modestly over the first
three quarters of 2011. The level of overall household debt fell in 2011,
reflecting a decline in mortgage debt. The decline in real household debt
outstanding in the current recovery has been unprecedented, which suggests
that the process of deleveraging has played a sizable role in household
consumption decisions in recent years.
Reflecting, in part, the improvement in credit availability since 2009,
household consumption of durable goods, including items such as new
and used automobiles as well as household electronics, furniture, and other
appliances has risen at a solid pace in the current recovery and somewhat
more strongly than the rates of growth observed during the recoveries that
followed the 1991 and 2001 recessions. Household consumption of nondurable
goods and services, in contrast, has risen at a slower pace in the current
recovery than in most previous U.S. recoveries. Real consumer spending
on services has increased only 2.9 percent so far in the current recovery,
whereas this type of spending grew by an average of 10.7 percent over the
first ten quarters of the previous eight recoveries. Consumer spending on
services has been particularly weak in categories such as housing services,
financial services, and insurance, likely reflecting the continuing effects of
The Year in Review and the Years Ahead | 51
the financial crisis, and on categories that are more discretionary, such as
recreation and gambling.6
Restrained demand for services may have implications for the labor
market, because the production of services accounts for about two-thirds
of U.S. GDP and a larger share of U.S. employment. (For a discussion of
the measurement of services see Data Watch 2-1.) Although it is difficult
to tie final consumption of a particular type of good or service to employment
in that industry (the purchase of a new motor vehicle creates jobs in a
number of service industries, for example), jobs in service-producing sectors
accounted for about 68 percent of total nonfarm payroll employment in
2007.7
Developments in Housing Markets
After posting steep declines during the 2007-09 recession, activity in
the housing sector remained at subdued levels in the first half of 2011 before
edging up in the second half of the year. New housing starts were about
607,000 units in 2011, an increase of 3.7 percent from the level in 2010. New
housing starts remain well below the long-run trend in U.S. housing demand.
According to researchers at the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard
University, projected rates of household formation and immigration for the
period 2010 through 2020 are consistent with housing starts in the range of
1.6 million to 1.9 million units a year (Masnick, McCue, and Belsky 2010).
Activity in the housing sector is likely to remain below these levels for some
time, however, as new construction continues to be restrained by a sizable
overhang of vacant properties for sale.
House prices, discussed in more detail in Chapter 4, fell 4.7 percent,
on net, during the twelve months of 2011, according to the CoreLogic home
price index. Distressed sales—which include short sales and sales of properties
owned by lenders (real-estate owned, or REO)—remained a headwind
in 2011: CoreLogic estimates that 1.6 million properties were seriously
delinquent, in foreclosure, or owned by lenders in October 2011, equal to
about five months of supply at the current pace of sales. The modest rates of
growth in personal income and the tighter mortgage underwriting standards
observed in recent years also kept sales and starts below their long-run trend
levels.
6 Consumption of services is more difficult to measure than is consumption of goods,
and estimates for 2011 may be revised considerably when the Services Annual Survey is
incorporated into the National Income and Product Accounts. Nonetheless, the pattern of
weaker-than-normal growth in services consumption in the current recovery has been quite
pronounced through 2010, a period for which estimates reflect the latest annual survey.
7 Industries counted in this figure include professional and business services, education and
health services, leisure and hospitality, other services, and government services.
52 | Chapter 2
Data Watch 2-1: The Data Implications of the
Transition to a Services-Based Economy
In 1947, services represented less than 40 percent of U.S. gross
domestic product (GDP). Today, service industries account for almost
70 percent of total U.S. domestic output. For many years, however, the
measurement of service activity lagged the sector’s growing importance.
A fundamental challenge in measuring the value of services is
the disparate range of activities encompassed within the service sector.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) defines services as “products
that cannot be stored and are consumed at the place and time of their
purchase.” This includes, for instance, medical consultations, admission
to movie theaters, Internet subscriptions, haircuts, and apartment rents,
but also some less apparent things such as meals at restaurants, check
clearing by banks, and the “rental value” of homeownership. (Although
the purchase of a newly constructed home is categorized under residential
investment, the BEA estimates the amount homeowners would have
had to pay to rent similar houses and classifies this imputed rent under
housing services.)
A major breakthrough in the measurement of service output came
with the introduction of the North American Industry Classification
System (NAICS) beginning in 1997 to replace the Standard Industrial
Classification (SIC) system. Originally developed during the 1930s and
reflecting the economy of its time, the SIC provided far more detail for
goods-producing industries such as manufacturing and mining than for
service-producing industries. The 1997 NAICS added more than 149
new services industries. Just as important, a process was put in place
to add new industries to NAICS as they develop. A parallel effort carried
out over the past decade, the development of the North American
Product Classification System, similarly will provide a consistent basis
for categorizing the rich array of outputs produced in the growing
service sector.
The quality of the source data on the volume of service transactions
also has improved over time. Since the 1980s, the BEA has collected
data on international trade in services. In 2004, the Census Bureau
introduced the Quarterly Services Survey (QSS) to provide more timely
data on domestic consumption of services. The QSS, normally published
about 2½ months after the end of each quarter, allows the BEA to incorporate
actual survey data on many services into its quarterly estimates
of GDP, rather than relying on “judgmental trends.” Furthermore, the
Census Bureau has expanded the scope of its annual surveys of the
service sector. In fact, the Services Annual Survey and the Quarterly
Services Survey both now capture 55 percent of U.S. GDP—equaling the
The Year in Review and the Years Ahead | 53
Although home prices in some parts of the country have stabilized,
CoreLogic estimates that more than 20 percent of homeowners with mortgages
remained underwater at the end of the third quarter of 2011 (that is,
the value of the mortgage exceeds the house price). The share of mortgages
in the foreclosure process remained elevated by historical standards in
2011 and changed little from the level in 2010, as reported by the Mortgage
Bankers Association.
For a description of the Administration’s housing policy proposals,
see Chapter 4.
Business Fixed Investment
Business fixed investment grew at a solid 7.3 percent annual rate
during the four quarters of 2011, after rising 11.1 percent at an annual rate
coverage of services in the Economic Census and marking substantial
improvement relative to even just a few years ago.
Measurement of real activity in the service sector requires appropriate
price deflators for service outputs. In 1990, the Producer Price
Index (PPI) covered less than 5 percent of U.S. service output. Today,
thanks to a concerted effort by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, PPI deflators
are available for more than three-quarters of domestically provided
services. This has translated directly into more accurate estimates of real
GDP.
Nevertheless, as the U.S. economy continues to evolve, the work of
accurately measuring service activity grows accordingly. Despite recent
innovations in the collection of primary source data, there are still
conceptual issues pertaining to the appraisal and definition of services
that remain unresolved. As an example, improvements in health care
have contributed to longer life spans and better quality of life, but there
is not a consensus about how to value and incorporate these benefits
in a national income accounting framework. Similarly, industries such
as finance largely produce intangible outputs that are difficult even
to identify, much less quantify. Furthermore, although estimates of
international trade in services are now more detailed than was the case
before the 1980s, the statistics still could and should be improved. Data
on the prices of traded services are extremely limited, and even the most
disaggregated data collected by the BEA on services extend to only 36
categories, in contrast to thousands of categories for manufactured
goods. Continued research and investment in the development of data
on services are needed to ensure timely and accurate measurement of
the U.S. economy.
54 | Chapter 2
in the four quarters of 2010. Among the two main components of business
fixed investment, spending on equipment and software investment grew 9.0
percent over the four quarters of 2011, and investment in nonresidential
structures increased 2.7 percent.
Within equipment and software, purchases of transportation equipment
rose at a brisk 22.7 percent annual rate over the four quarters of 2011,
after having surged at a 68.1 percent annual rate in 2010. Business outlays
on information technology rose at a 4.1 percent annual rate over the four
quarters of 2011, a third consecutive year of solid growth. Investment in
industrial equipment also grew notably, posting a four-quarter increase of
15.2 percent. (For more information on how investment is defined, see Data
Watch 2-2.)
Investment growth among the categories of nonresidential structures
was mixed in 2011. On one hand, investment in mining and drilling
structures was strong, reflecting elevated oil prices as well as some advances
in technology that have enabled drilling at new sites. (See Chapter 8.)
Investment in commercial and health care structures, on the other hand,
edged down over the four quarters of 2011.
The strength of business fixed investment since mid-2009 reflects
several developments. Investment fell sharply during the recession, and, as
the prospects for sales have begun to improve, businesses have invested in
recent years to replace aging equipment. In addition, the Administration’s
100 percent business expensing policy boosted business investment by
allowing firms to take an immediate deduction on investments made in new
equipment in 2011. The President has proposed extending this provision
into 2012.
Business investment may be positioned to grow rapidly if demand
accelerates because corporations have plenty of internal funds (Figure 2-6).
Corporate profits continued to rise in 2011 and were above their pre-recession
level, while corporate dividends have returned roughly to pre-recession
levels. Largely as a result, corporate cash flow, a measure that includes undistributed
profits and depreciation and represents the internal funds available
for investment, has also risen substantially during the recovery. A large share
of these investable funds has been channeled to financial investments rather
than to new physical capital, as can be seen by the rising level of liquid assets
held by nonfinancial corporations.
Manufacturing Output
The real output of U.S. factories rose 3.7 percent over the twelve
months of 2011 after having risen 6.4 percent in 2010, according to the
manufacturing component of the industrial production index published
The Year in Review and the Years Ahead | 55
by the Federal Reserve Board. The manufacturing sector has been growing
faster than the rest of the economy during the recovery, with real output rising
at an average annual rate of 5.7 percent since its low in June of 2009—its
fastest pace of growth in a decade.
The rise in manufacturing output during the recovery has provided a
considerable boost to the U.S. economy. Following two decades of shrinking
employment—a trend that reflected both increases in automation and the
lower labor costs in emerging-market economies—manufacturers in the
United States have added more than 400,000 jobs since employment in the
sector reached its low in January 2010. These numbers reflect an emerging
trend of some companies bringing jobs back to the United States, as
discussed in the special report, Investing in America: Building an Economy
that Lasts (White House 2012). This nascent trend likely reflects, in part, the
improvement in unit labor costs in the United States relative to many of our
trading partners in recent years. (See Chapter 5 for more discussion of the
rising competitiveness of U.S. industry.)
The robust gains in manufacturing output during the recovery appear
to reflect rising investment demand for domestically-produced capital goods
from both domestic and foreign customers. The rebound of the U.S. motor
vehicle industry has played a particularly large role, with the production of
motor vehicles and parts directly accounting for about 23 percent of the
increase in manufacturing output since mid-2009. As U.S. demand for new
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
1990:Q1 1993:Q1 1996:Q1 1999:Q1 2002:Q1 2005:Q1 2008:Q1 2011:Q1
Liquid assets held by
nonfinancial corporations
Nonresidential fixed
investment
Cash flow
Note: Potential GDP is a CBO estimate. Cash flow, from the National Income and Product Accounts,
and nonfinancial liquid assets are plotted using three-quarter moving averages.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Income and Product Accounts; Federal Reserve Board
(Flow of Funds L.102); Congressional Budget Office.
Percent of potential GDP
Figure 2-6
Business Fixed Investment and Cash Flow, 1990–2011
2011:Q3
2011:Q4
56 | Chapter 2
Data Watch 2-2: Investment in Intangibles
Investment can be defined as devoting resources to produce a
durable asset that will yield a future flow of services. Until recently,
measures of investment in the National Income and Product Accounts
(NIPAs) were restricted to investments in physical capital such as
buildings, machinery, and equipment; new residential construction; and
net additions to inventories. In today’s knowledge economy, however,
intangible assets such as computer software and scientific innovations
make increasingly important contributions to economic growth.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has begun to incorporate
investments in intangible capital into the NIPAs. The first step in this
direction, taken in 1999, was to treat spending on computer software
as an investment outlay, which enters GDP directly, rather than as a
business expense, which is considered an intermediate input rather
than a part of final demand; the treatment of government spending on
computer software was changed at the same time. Because business and
government spending on computer software had been growing rapidly
compared to other types of spending, these changes raised the measured
growth rate of GDP slightly. In 2013, BEA plans to begin treating spending
on scientific research and development as an investment rather than
an expense; had this treatment been in effect historically, it too would
have raised the average measured rate of growth of GDP in recent
decades.
Some researchers have argued that investment in intangibles
should be defined even more broadly (Corrado, Hulten, and Sichel
2009; Corrado and Hulten 2010). In addition to research and development
that builds on a scientific base of knowledge, for example, there
is an argument for treating as investment the money firms spend on
other sorts of new product development, such as the development of
new motion pictures or new financial services products. Businesses also
spend money on strategic planning, the implementation of new business
processes, and employee training, all of which may add significantly to
future productivity and thus arguably should be treated as investment
as well. Taking an even broader perspective, time and money devoted to
formal education add to the human capital of the American workforce
and thus to its future productivity. While accounting accurately for the
value of these investments poses some difficult measurement challenges
(Abraham 2010), their importance to future economic growth should
not be overlooked. According to some research (Krueger 1999), returns
on human capital generate the lion’s share of national income.
The Year in Review and the Years Ahead | 57
vehicles has recovered, the Detroit auto companies along with the foreigndomiciled
auto companies have been expanding U.S. production to serve
both U.S. and foreign markets. Over the past two years, the entire U.S. auto
industry—including dealerships and suppliers of auto parts—has added
nearly 160,000 jobs. General Motors was the world’s top-selling automaker
in 2011, Ford is investing in new American plants, and sales at Chrysler grew
faster in 2011 than in recent years.
In addition to rescuing the American auto industry, the Administration
has more broadly supported American manufacturing through its efforts to
reduce barriers for American businesses to sell products all over the world.
To build on the progress already made, the President laid out in his 2012
State of the Union address a Blueprint for an America Built to Last, which
included proposals to encourage companies to create manufacturing jobs in
the United States while removing tax deductions for shipping jobs overseas.
Business Inventories
Businesses continued to build inventories during 2011, and inventories
in the manufacturing and trade sectors remained lean relative to sales.
Inventory investment—measured as the change in inventories from one
quarter to the next—is typically an important contributor to the changes in
real GDP during recessions and the early stages of recoveries.
Over the course of 2011, real inventory investment stepped up in the
first quarter and then slowed in the second and third quarters, but closed
out the year on a high note. The slower pace of inventory investment in the
second quarter reflected, in part, the reduced rate of motor vehicle production
caused by disruptions to the flow of auto parts following the earthquake
and tsunami in Japan. Altogether, real inventory investment added roughly
0.2 percentage point to real GDP growth between the fourth quarter of 2010
and the fourth quarter of 2011.
Government Outlays, Consumption, and Investment
The Federal budget deficit during Fiscal Year 2011—which ended on
September 30—was $1.3 trillion, roughly unchanged from the year before.
As a share of GDP, the deficit fell to 8.7 percent in FY 2011 from 9.0 percent
in FY 2010. Federal receipts rose 6.5 percent during FY 2011, largely driven
by a 21.5 percent increase in individual income tax receipts. Corporate tax
receipts fell 5.4 percent in FY 2011, partly reflecting the introduction of 100
percent depreciation for business equipment investment in calendar year
2011 (up from 50 percent in calendar year 2010), which pulls forward deductions
that businesses would otherwise receive over several years. Corporate
tax receipts in FY 2011 were only about half what they were in FY 2007,
58 | Chapter 2
even as domestic corporate profits (excluding Federal Reserve Banks) were
roughly unchanged.8 In contrast, individual income tax receipts in FY 2011
were more than 90 percent of their FY 2007 level.
Federal outlays rose 4.2 percent in FY 2011 from FY 2010 but
remained steady as a share of GDP at 24.1 percent. According to the CBO,
approximately half of the year-over-year increase in Federal outlays reflects
re-evaluations of the cumulative cost of the Troubled Asset Relief Program
(TARP).9 The President’s FY 2013 Budget estimates that the cumulative cost
of TARP will be $67.8 billion, well below the Administration’s 2009 estimate
of $341 billion.
Nominal spending on defense grew more slowly in FY 2011 than in
recent years. Combined total spending on Social Security, Medicare, and
Medicaid rose in FY 2011, though at a slower pace than the average over the
past three years. According to the Department of Labor, extended unemployment
benefits and emergency unemployment benefits are on track to be
about $60 billion in 2011, following total benefits of $80 billion in 2010. The
past three years of unemployment benefits stabilized consumer spending
at a level higher than would have occurred absent this income support. In
addition, the 2 percentage point reduction in payroll taxes through the end
of 2011 lowered tax liabilities by about $114 billion.
During the four quarters of calendar year 2011, real Federal expenditures
on consumption and gross investment, as measured in the National
Income and Product Accounts, declined 3.3 percent; federal defense spending
fell 3.7 percent over the four quarters of 2011, and federal nondefense
spending declined 2.6 percent.
As projected in the Administration’s FY 2013 Budget, which includes
demand-supporting initiatives for FY 2012 that have not yet been approved
by the Congress, the deficit as a share of GDP will fall from 8.7 percent in
FY 2011 to 5.5 percent in FY 2013, and to 3.4 percent in FY 2015. The fullemployment
deficit as a share of GDP (the budget deficit that would exist
if the economy were at full employment) would be roughly unchanged in
FY 2012 and fall by about 3 percentage points in FY 2013 and by another
1.5 percentage points in FY 2014. This fiscal consolidation will restrain the
8 The divergence of corporate profits and corporate tax receipts between 2007 and 2011
reflects changes in tax policy and differences in how profits in the National Income and
Product Accounts (NIPA) and corporate taxable income are calculated. Business credits for
corporations have increased between 2007 and 2011. The components of NIPA profits that are
not counted in taxable income include capital gains, bad debt, and Federal Reserve profits.
9 The CBO (2011c) estimates the net present value of the cumulative cost of TARP each year
and—if costs are revised down—records the changes in these valuations in the Budget as a
negative outlay. The CBO adjusted down the total cost of the program in FY 2010 and FY
2011, but the downward adjustment in FY 2011 was smaller than in FY 2010.
The Year in Review and the Years Ahead | 59
growth of demand in those years, but an increase in private-sector demand
in those years is projected to fill in the gap.
Looking further ahead, the deficit reduction from the cuts mandated
by the Budget Control Act of 2011 and the expiration of the tax cuts on
upper-income Americans enacted between 2001 and 2003, combined with
the winding down of operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, will bring deficits
down to approximately 2.8 percent of GDP near the end of the 10-year budget
window. Policy changes recommended in the FY 2013 Budget put the
debt on a stable or declining path as a share of the economy and would—if
enacted—place the budget in a fiscally sustainable position in the ten-year
budget window.
State and Local Governments
State and local governments remained under severe fiscal pressure in
2011, and, as noted, declines in this sector’s revenues have forced sharper
declines in real State and local consumption and gross investment than in
earlier U.S. recoveries. Although nominal State and local government tax
receipts continued to increase in 2011, Federal funds from the Recovery
Act—which helped support State and local governments during 2009 and
2010—declined, and employment continued to contract.
State and local tax revenues rose about 4 percent, or $50 billion, during
the four quarters through the third quarter of 2011, roughly the same
pace as during the year-earlier period. About half of the rise came from
personal income taxes. State and local taxes on production and imports—a
category that includes sales and property taxes—increased about $32 billion
over this period, while corporate taxes were down $8 billion. Federal grantsin-
aid to the states plunged $87.8 billion during the four quarters of 2011
after rising notably during 2009 and 2010; both the earlier increase and the
2011 decline were attributable to the Recovery Act, which was designed to
offer temporary support to State and local governments.
Current State and local government expenditures—which include
transfers to individuals as well as government consumption—fell 0.2 percent
over the four quarters of 2011, following a 4.4 percent increase in the
year-earlier period. Reflecting, in part, the decline in Federal grants-in-aid
between the third quarters of 2010 and 2011, the operating position of State
and local governments deteriorated to an aggregate deficit of $83 billion by
the third quarter of 2011, the fourth consecutive year of operating deficits
for the State and local sector.
Employment in State and local government declined by 235,000 in
2011, and employment in the sector fell 660,000 from its peak in August
60 | Chapter 2
2008 to December 2011. About 36 percent of the jobs lost over this period
were in education.
Real investment by State and local governments in structures, such as
schools, roads, and bridges, fell 9.9 percent during the four quarters of 2011,
a decline notably steeper than those of the preceding three years. Some of the
decline is attributable to the expiration of the Build America Bonds program
at the end of 2010. Part of the Recovery Act, the program subsidized municipal
bonds issued for infrastructure development and helped finance $181
billion worth of capital projects, including schools, bridges, and hospitals
(Department of Treasury 2011).
State and local governments have made tough budget decisions during
the past four years. They will likely continue doing so in 2012 as Federal
transfers diminish, and past declines in house prices erode the property tax
base. The Administration took important steps in 2010 and 2011 to help
State and local governments maintain critical services in public safety and
education. In addition to the grants-in-aid components of the Recovery
Act, the Administration eased the burden on State and local governments
in August 2010 by establishing a new teacher job fund and by extending the
enhanced Federal matching formula for certain social services and medical
insurance expenditures covered by the States. In 2011, the President proposed
additional funds as part of the American Jobs Act to prevent layoffs of
teachers, police, and firefighters. To support infrastructure investment, the
Administration also included funds in the American Jobs Act to modernize
more than 35,000 schools.
Real Exports and Imports
Real exports grew 5.2 percent during the four quarters of 2011 after
jumping 8.8 percent in 2010. As noted, the rebound in exports since the
trough of the recession has been strong and reflects rising demand for U.S.
goods and services abroad. Total exports rose at an average rate of almost 16
percent per year between 2009 and the twelve-month period that ended in
November 2011, an increase that creates jobs for U.S. workers and puts U.S.
exports on track to meet the President’s goal of doubling nominal exports
between 2009 and the end of 2014. Meeting this goal depends, in part, on
healthy growth of the world economy; world growth, however, may falter
in the near term for reasons related to the sovereign debt crisis in Europe.
Maintaining robust exports is a key to building an American economy that
can prosper in the global economy in the years to come (see Chapter 5).
Real imports also grew in 2011, expanding 3.8 percent over the four
quarters of the year. The rise in real imports over the past year likely reflects
The Year in Review and the Years Ahead | 61
the increase in consumer spending on goods, the rise in real business fixed
investment, and the continued recovery in industrial production in 2011.
All told, real net exports—exports less imports—made a small positive
contribution to the rise in real GDP over the four quarters of 2011, after
subtracting from real GDP growth in the year-earlier period.
Labor Market Trends
The job market continued to heal in 2011, adding a total of 1.8 million
jobs. The private-sector added 2.1 million jobs during the twelve months of
2011, while State and local government employment fell by 235,000. The
growth in private-sector jobs was the strongest since 2005. Private sector
payroll employment has grown in each month since February 2010, and layoffs—
as measured by the four-week average of initial claims for unemployment
insurance—have come down considerably over this period (Figure
2-7). The four-week average of initial claims continued to recede through
the end of January 2012.
Private-sector job growth during the current recovery has been similar
to that in the 1991 recovery and faster than that in the 2001 recovery, as
illustrated in Figure 2-8. As is typical, the recovery in jobs since 2009 has
lagged the recovery in output. Growth in private nonfarm jobs in the current
recovery began nine months after the business-cycle trough. By comparison,
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
200
300
400
500
600
700
Figure 2-7
Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims, 2004–2012
Thousands, seasonally adjusted
Note: Four-week moving average. Shading denotes recession.
Source: Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration.
Week ended
1/28/2012
62 | Chapter 2
payrolls first began expanding consistently twelve months into the 1990–91
recovery, and sustained private-sector job growth in the 2001 recovery did
not begin until 21 months after the official end date of the recession. Thus,
although the 2007–09 recession lasted longer and featured job losses much
deeper than those in the recessions of 1990–91 and 2001, recovery in the
labor market began somewhat sooner.
Nonetheless, the steep rate of job loss during the recession has left
the rate of unemployment high. During the recovery the unemployment
rate receded from its peak of 10.0 percent in October 2009 to 8.3 percent
by January 2012. The unemployment rate dropped by 0.6 percentage point
between October 2011 and January 2012 (Figure 2-9). Other measures of
labor market slack—such as the “U-6” unemployment rate published by the
Bureau of Labor Statistics—have also declined over the past year. The U-6
measure includes in the pool of unemployed workers those who are underemployed
or are marginally attached to the labor force, that is, would like a
job but are not currently searching for work. The U-6 unemployment rate in
January 2012 was a percentage point below its year-earlier level.
In addition to tracking the number of jobs added in 2011, other margins
of labor market adjustment such as the workweek also contain important
information about the pace of the recovery. At the business-cycle peak
in the fourth quarter of 2007, the workweek for all private-sector employees
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
-36 -30 -24 -18 -12 -6 Trough 6 12 18 24 30 36
Indexed to 100 at NBER-defined trough
Figure 2-8
Private Nonfarm Employment During Recoveries
2001
Current (June
2009 trough)
Months from trough
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics; National Bureau of
Economic Research; CEA calculations.
1991
The Year in Review and the Years Ahead | 63
averaged 34.6 hours. By the second quarter of 2009, it had shortened 0.8
hour. By the fourth quarter of 2011, the workweek increased to 34.4 hours,
recovering most of the hours lost during the recession. A 0.1 hour lengthening
of the workweek is roughly equivalent, in terms of labor input, to an
increase in employment of more than 300,000 jobs.
Wages, Labor Productivity, and Prices
Hourly compensation rose at about the same pace in 2011 as in 2010.
The employment cost index for private-sector workers, including wages
and benefits, rose 2.1 percent over the twelve months of 2011, roughly the
same as the year-earlier increase. Nominal hourly compensation in the nonfarm
business sector—a measure based primarily on compensation in the
National Income and Product Accounts—rose 1.7 percent during the four
quarters of 2011, up slightly from the pace during 2010 but well below the
average increase of about 4.0 percent in 2006 and 2007.
Labor productivity in the nonfarm business sector (that is, real output
per hour worked) rose about 0.5 percent during the four quarters of 2011, a
slower pace of growth than during the preceding two years. Averaged over
the nearly four years since the business-cycle peak, labor productivity grew
at a 1.8 percent annual rate.
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011
Figure 2-9
Unemployment Rate, 1979–2012
Percent
Note: Shaded areas represent recessions.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.
Jan-12
64 | Chapter 2
Consumer prices—as measured by the consumer price index (CPI)—
rose almost 3 percent during the twelve months of 2011, 1.6 percentage
points more than they did in 2010 (Figure 2-10). The cost of food, crude oil,
and many other commodities rose sharply in the first half of 2011, and some
of these increases were passed through to consumer prices for food and
energy products. Excluding food and energy products, the core CPI rose a
more moderate 2.2 percent during the 12 months of 2011 after rising at an
unusually slow pace of 0.8 percent in 2010.
Over the second half of 2011, overall consumer price inflation fell
considerably as the price pressures from the earlier increases in energy and
commodity prices waned. After rising at an annual rate of 3.8 percent in
the first six months of the year, consumer price inflation fell to 2.2 percent
between June and December.
Most of the inflation in nonfarm business prices during the past four
years has been due to a rise in the price markup over unit labor costs rather
than to rising unit labor costs. Hourly compensation has risen at a roughly
2 percent annual rate during the four years since the business-cycle peak,
but this growth has been offset by growth of labor productivity also by an
annual rate of about 2 percent during the same period, leaving unit labor
costs essentially unchanged. Over the long run, prices of nonfarm business
output rise in a roughly parallel fashion to unit labor costs, so the markup
of prices relative to unit labor costs has been flat, although it has certainly
fluctuated in the short run. As can be seen in Figure 2-11, this long-term
property of the U.S. economy appears to have broken down over the past
decade. The markup has now risen to its highest level in post–World War
II history, with much of that increase taking place over the past four years.
Because the markup of prices over unit labor costs is the inverse of the labor
share of output, saying that an increase in the price markup is the highest
in postwar history is equivalent to saying that the labor share of output has
fallen to its lowest level.
The Administration expects consumer prices to rise slightly below
2 percent a year for the next few years, edging up to a 2.1 percent annual
rate in the long run. The long-run projection is in line with the levels of
inflation deemed by the Federal Reserve as consistent with stable prices
and full employment, and only slightly below survey measures of long-run
inflation expectations and the 5-year forward inflation rate implied by the
yields on inflation-protected Treasury securities.10 Moreover, because slack
in the labor market remains, the economy has considerable room to expand
without increasing price pressures.
10 The Survey of Professional Forecasters projects the CPI will grow at an average annual rate
of 2.5 percent from 2011 through 2020.
The Year in Review and the Years Ahead | 65
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Figure 2-10
Consumer Price Inflation, 2004–2011
12-month percent change
Dec-11
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index.
Core
Headline
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
1947:Q1 1957:Q1 1967:Q1 1977:Q1 1987:Q1 1997:Q1 2007:Q1
Markup over
unit labor costs
2011:Q4
Average markup
1947:Q1-2011:Q4: 1.57
Figure 2-11
Price Markup over Unit Labor Costs, Nonfarm Business, 1947–2011
Note: Shading denotes recession.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Income and Product Accounts; Bureau of
Labor Statistics, Productivity and Costs; CEA calculations.
Ratio of prices to unit labor costs
66 | Chapter 2
Financial Markets
The past year was a volatile one for financial markets. Concerns that
had arisen late in 2009 over sovereign debt in Greece and Portugal continued
into 2011 and spread to several larger countries in the European Union, with
effects that were felt worldwide.
Following a 12.8 percent gain in 2010, U.S. equity prices—as measured
by the Standard and Poor’s 500 Composite Index—were essentially
flat in 2011. External factors weighed heavily on investor sentiment at times
over the course of the year. After rising more than 8 percent from the end
of 2010 through April, equity values plunged during the summer, reflecting
the uncertainty surrounding the European sovereign debt problems
and the protracted negotiations over raising the statutory U.S. Federal debt
ceiling. Measures of market volatility—such as the Market Volatility Index
(VIX)—rose sharply in mid-2011 before retreating near the end of the year.
The VIX reached levels in 2011 that were about equal to those in mid-2009
but remained well below record levels in late 2008. The day-to-day changes
in the S&P index exceeded 1 percentage point on 96 days in 2011, 20 days
more than in 2010. In 2005 and 2006, swings in the S&P index exceeded a
percentage point only 30 times per year on average.
Yields on 10-year Treasury notes were 1.98 percent in December 2011,
down from 3.29 percent in December 2010 (Figure 2-12). Ten-year yields
rose to a monthly high of 3.58 percent in February of 2011, as investors
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Real
Nominal
Figure 2-12
10-Year Treasury Yields, 2004–2012
Percent
Source: Federal Reserve Board, H.15.
Feb.2
1.86%
-0.30%
The Year in Review and the Years Ahead | 67
elevated their outlook for the U.S. economy. Renewed concerns about sovereign
debt issues in Europe, however, triggered a flight to safety that pushed
down long-term rates, on balance, during the remainder of 2011. The
Federal Reserve System’s program to lengthen the maturity of the portfolio
of their U.S. government debt also held down long-term rates. Over the final
five months of the year, 10-year Treasury yields fluctuated around 2 percent,
and real long-term interest rates at the same maturity, as indicated by the
market for Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, fluctuated around zero.
When the Administration’s economic forecast was finalized in mid-
November 2011, interest rates, both short- and long-term, were recognized
as being in the low end of their historical range. Yet, in light of the Federal
Reserve’s August 9 announcement that “economic conditions … are likely
to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through
mid-2013,” the Administration did not foresee any material changes in
short-term interest rates over the near term. Thus, the Administration’s projected
path for 91-day Treasury bills, calibrated from rates in the market for
federal funds futures, anticipated that these rates would remain extremely
low until the second half of 2013. The FOMC forecasted in January 2012 that
these rates would remain low at least through late 2014.
Small Businesses and the Recovery
Small firms—with fewer than 500 employees—account for about half
of private-sector nonfarm employment. Between 1993 and 2010, more than
half of firms in the private sector had 1 to 4 employees, and nearly 98 percent
had fewer than 100 employees. Figure 2-13 illustrates that small firms
experienced proportionately larger job losses than large firms during the
recession and until early 2010. Similarly, the number of bank loans to small
firms fell dramatically during the recession and—although it has stabilized
since—still has not returned to pre-recession levels (see Figure 2-14). In
13 consecutive quarters between 2007:Q1 and 2010:Q1, respondents to the
Federal Reserve’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey reported that credit
tightened or remained tight fo,r small firms (those with less than $50 million
in annual sales) and that, since 2010, credit standards for large firms eased
at a faster rate than for small firms.
Small firms depend more on banks for financing than do larger firms,
in part because larger firms have access to other forms of finance, including
public debt and equity markets, typically unavailable to small firms. Petersen
and Rajan (1994) have documented the critical relationship between banks
and small firms and showed that over half of financing for small firms came
68 | Chapter 2
from bank finance. 11 Economists have modeled a link between the supply of
credit and macroeconomic activity (Bernanke 1983; Holmstrom and Tirole
1997; and Peek and Rosengren 2000). Credit conditions have been shown to
affect a variety of specific macroeconomic outcomes, including investment
spending, inventories, and economic growth and development (Fazzari,
Hubbard, and Petersen 1988; King and Levine 1993; Kashyap, Lamont, and
Stein 1994; Levine and Zervos 1998; Rajan and Zingales 1998; and Guiso,
Sapienza, and Zingales 2004). Gertler and Gilchrist (1994) find that smaller
manufacturing firms respond more to money supply conditions than larger
firms, and Kroszner, Laeven, and Klingebiel (2007) use cross-country evidence
to show that banking crises negatively affect bank-dependent firms
more than they affect firms less dependent on bank finance.
The credit-contraction hypothesis has been used to explain the steeper
loss of employment in small firms. Until recently, however, the literature
from the recent financial crisis has largely been unable to disentangle the
contributions of credit-supply and aggregate-demand conditions. Duygan-
Bump, Levkov, and Montoriol-Garriga (2011) use data from the Current
Population Survey, Compustat, and the National Survey of Small Business
11 Small firms in their paper are the smallest 10 percent of the sample measured by the book
value of assets. Their sample, which is drawn from the Federal Reserve’s National Survey of
Small Business Finances conducted in 1988 and 1989, contains 3,404 firms with fewer than 500
employees.
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
2007:Q1 2008:Q1 2009:Q1 2010:Q1 2011:Q1
Indexed to 100 at 2007:Q4
Note: Small firms have fewer than 500 employees. Shaded area denotes recession.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business Employment Dynamics.
Figure 2-13
Private Sector Job Recovery by Firm Size, 2007–2011
Large firms
Small firms
2011:Q2
The Year in Review and the Years Ahead | 69
Finances to separate the contributions of these two factors. They find that,
as in previous recessions involving banking crises, following the crisis of
2007–09, the likelihood of becoming unemployed was greater in sectors
that were more dependent on external finance. Further, among firms highly
dependent on banks for financing, the likelihood that an employee will
become unemployed is greater in small firms (defined as those with 99 or
fewer employees).12 The authors do not observe such a divergence in unemployment
incidence in firms with low dependence on external finance.
Prior to the financial crisis, the share of lending to small businesses
by the largest banks—those with assets of over $50 billion—had risen
substantially (Corner and Bhaskar 2010). Since 2009, however, financing
has been constrained and it remains so for small firms seeking funding.
Simultaneously, the data show that other financial institutions—smaller
banks, credit unions, and other alternative lenders—and governmentsponsored
programs have filled part of this gap. Between January and
December 2011, Biz2Credit, a private firm that matches over 1.5 million
small businesses seeking loans to nearly 500 lenders and loan intermediaries,
reports that loan-approval rates by large banks fell 3.1 percentage points,
while increasing 3.6 percentage points at small banks, 8.5 percentage points
12 This evidence does not address whether the credit-supply conditions are due to factors
related to lower credit quality.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Figure 2-14
Small Business Commercial and Industrial Loans, 2007–2011
2011:Q3
Note: Loans with original amounts of less than $1 million.
Source: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Statistics on Banking.
Billions of dollars Millions of loans
Value of loans
(left axis)
Number of loans
(right axis)
70 | Chapter 2
Box 2-1: SBA’s Role in Financing Small Firms During the Recovery
The Small Business Administration (SBA) was created by Congress
in 1953 to aid and provide technical support for small businesses.1 Many
SBA programs seek to minimize the riskiness of small-business loans
for lenders by guaranteeing a portion of these loans against default. SBA
collaborates with federal agencies and the White House to ensure that
at least 23 percent of Federal Government contract opportunities, worth
nearly $100 billion, are available to small businesses.
Traditional SBA programs, the 7(a) and 504 loans, target small
firms. These programs have been found to have a positive impact on
local economic performance (Craig, Jackson, and Thomson 2005). In
response to ongoing tight credit conditions facing small firms during the
recovery, the Small Business Jobs Act of 2010 increased the loan limits
for SBA loan guarantees. The limits for equipment and real estate loans
were increased permanently and the limits for working capital loans
through the SBA Express program were increased temporarily. Between
FY2010 and FY2011, the number of SBA loans approved increased 12.5
percent, while the value of SBA loans approved increased 45.4 percent
(see box figure). SBA increased overall lending supported to $30.5 billion
in FY 2011, the highest ever lending year in its 60-year history.2
Recent economic research shows that new and young firms contribute
disproportionately to job growth in the U.S. (see Chapter 6). The
Obama Administration has created the Startup America initiative to
support the role that startups play in economic growth and job creation.
The initiative aims to accelerate high-growth entrepreneurship through
policies that unlock access to capital for high-growth companies, create
mentoring programs, accelerate lab-to-market innovation, and make
government work better for entrepreneurs.
As a part of the Startup America initiative, SBA is improving access
to capital for high-growth small businesses. The SBA has launched two
new Small Business Investment Company (SBIC) programs, each seeking
to guarantee an additional $1 billion in private investment within
five years: the Early-Stage Innovation Fund for seed- and early-stage
companies and the Impact Investment Fund for companies in areas
of national priority, including underserved markets and emerging
1The Small Business Administration’s definition of a small business uses guidelines that
reflect, among other things, sales, employment levels, and sector of economic activity. These
guidelines are available online at http://www.sba.gov/sites/default/files/Size_Standards_
Table.pdf.
2 Lending supported includes gross loan approvals for SBA’s 7(a) and 504 programs as
well as third-party loans that are made by commercial lenders as part of the 504 funding
package. The box figure depicts the value of loans 7(a) and 504 loans approved, which will
be smaller than the value of loans supported.
The Year in Review and the Years Ahead | 71
sectors, such as energy and education. SBA licensed the first SBIC
Impact Investment Fund in Michigan in July 2011. The InvestMichigan!
Mezzanine Fund, with resources of $130 million, is a public-private
partnership between SBA, Dow Chemical Company, and Michigan
Growth Capital Partners that will be managed privately and will focus
on funding new and small firms with plans to expand their operations
and create jobs. SBA also deepened its commitment to underserved
markets in 2011 with the implementation of the Underserved Markets
Initiative, which will disseminate SBA resources to youth, rural, veteran,
low-income, and other communities.
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Value of Loans
Number of Loans
Billions of dollars
Source: Small Business Administration, Agency Financial Report, 2011.
SBA Loans Approved, 2006-2011
Thousands of loans
SBA augmented its role as a coordinator of federal agencies in
supporting small businesses in 2011. As is common after financial crises,
small firms are experiencing difficulties managing cash flow due to
adverse credit conditions. To improve access to working capital for
thousands of small firms, in September, President Obama issued an
executive order to institute the QuickPay program, which requires an
agency to pay its contractors within 15 days and, at a maximum, within
30 days. As with the QuickPay program, SBA plays a coordinating role
for the Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program, which
focuses on small high-technology firms and includes 11 granting agencies.
Evidence suggests that SBA and SBIR involvement make a difference
to young firms. Between 1983 and 1997 awardees of the SBIR program
subsequently had substantially higher employment and sales
growth compared to a matched sample of similar firms (Lerner 1999). In
December, Congress passed a long-term reauthorization of the SBIR
program that will increase its funding.
72 | Chapter 2
at credit unions, and 12.9 percentage points at other alternative lenders, such
as CDFIs, microlenders, and accounts-receivable financiers.13
In 2009, the Obama Administration increased the amount of capital
invested in financial institutions and other entities to support small-business
lending. This lending evolved along two lines: investing capital directly into
financial institutions that provide small business loans and adding funding
to new and existing programs that provide credit support to small business
loans. In terms of direct investment that strengthened small-business
lending, the Administration invested more than $11 billion in over 1,000
financial institutions, most of which were small banks but also including
credit unions, Community Development Financial Institutions (CDFIs),
and business loan funds. The programs that provide small-business credit
support include the new State Small Business Credit Initiative (SSBCI),
which is expected to channel $15 billion in new small-business lending, as
well as existing programs, such as loan-guarantee programs housed at the
Small Business Administration (SBA), the Department of Agriculture, and
the Export-Import Bank. Other Administration initiatives also helped small
firms gain access to capital at a critical period. For example, the Financial
Stability program was modified in 2009 to protect auto parts suppliers, 82
percent of which employ less than 100 workers, to ensure that they would
be paid for any parts they shipped, regardless of the fate of the recipient
car company. Given the integral role auto-parts manufacturers play in the
manufacturing supply chain, systemic failure in this sector would have had
a substantial effect on the auto industry, the manufacturing supply chain,
output, and employment.14
By the end of FY2011, marked increases in these capital-access
programs were partly due to the introduction of two new programs administered
by Treasury—the Small Business Lending Fund (SBLF) and the
SSBCI—and increases in the scope of the aforementioned loan-guarantee
programs. As of the beginning of January, institutions participating in the
SBLF have increased lending to small businesses by roughly $3.5 billion
over their baseline, and, in Fiscal Year 2011, SBA supported over $30 billion
in loans. (Box 2-1 further describes the Administration’s efforts to address
credit constraints among small businesses through the SBA’s loan-guarantee
programs administered through bank finance and Startup America.)
The most recent data on the expectations of small businesses concerning
financing and future job growth suggest that these efforts, along with
13 Small firms in the Biz2Credit sample are firms with fewer than 500 employees and under $6
million in annual revenue. Loan-approval rates are based on a random sample of 1,000 firms in
the Biz2Credit database reported each month between January 2011 and December 2011.
14 It is estimated that intervention in the auto industry broadly averted a loss of approximately
1.1 million jobs and hundreds of small businesses (White House 2010).
The Year in Review and the Years Ahead | 73
the ongoing economic recovery, are having a positive effect. Small-business
owners who responded to the Wells Fargo-Gallup survey conducted from
January 9 to 13, 2012, for example, report being more optimistic than at any
time since July 2008. This sentiment is largely attributed to sharp increases
in their expectations related to their firms’ financial situation, i.e., revenue
and cash flow.15 Moreover, respondents’ hiring plans have become more
optimistic than at any point since January 2008, as Figure 2-15 illustrates.
In early 2012, more small businesses expected to add new employees in the
next 12 months (22 percent) than expected to let them go (8 percent). This
is the biggest margin by which small businesses’ expectations for increasing
jobs have exceeded those for decreasing jobs since the start of the financial
crisis in 2008.
The Long-Term Outlook
Looking ahead, the Administration projects that the economic recovery
that began in 2009 will continue and gather speed (Table 2-1). In the
economic forecast, which was used to estimate the FY 2013 Budget, inflation
15 The Wells Fargo-Gallup telephone survey was based on a nationally representative sample of
604 firms extracted from the Dun & Bradstreet database of firms earning $20 million in annual
revenue or less. See Jacobe (2012).
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2003-Q3 2005-Q3 2007-Q3 2009-Q3 2011-Q3
Percent of respondents
Note: Small firms have less than $20 million in annual revenue. Shaded area denotes
recession.
Source: Wells Fargo/Gallup Small Business Survey cited in Jacobe (2012).
Figure 2-15
Employment Outlook for Small Businesses, 2003–2012
Employment expected to
increase over next
12 months
2012:Q1
Employment expected to
decrease over next
12 months
74 | Chapter 2
remains moderate, interest rates rise gradually, and the rate of unemployment
recedes. The Administration projects real GDP growth to rise to 3
percent in 2012 and 2013 after growing 1.6 percent during the four quarters
of 2011.
The Administration also expects the employment situation to continue
to improve in coming years: The Administration’s unemployment rate
forecast—also completed in mid-November 2011, when the latest-available
reading on the unemployment rate was 9.0 percent for October, is shown
in the first column of Table 2-2. The Budget forecast does not reflect the
improvement in the job market since the forecast was finalized. Since that
forecast was completed, the unemployment rate has fallen to 8.3 percent,
beginning 2012 well below the 8.9 percent unemployment rate that had been
forecast for the year as a whole. This should not be interpreted as a projection
that the unemployment rate will rise: instead, it is the result of an out-of
date forecast. The second, third, and fourth columns of Table 2-2 show a
range of forecasts that were completed more recently so as to illustrate a
plausible range through which the unemployment rate is likely to evolve.
Table 2-1
Administration Economic Forecast
Nominal
GDP
Real
GDP
(chaintype)
GDP
price
index
(chaintype)
Consumer
price
index
(CPI-U)
Interest
rate,
91-day
Treasury
bills
(percent)
Interest
rate,
10-year
Treasury
notes
(percent)
Percent change, Q4-to-Q4 Level, calendar year
2010 (actual) 4.7 3.1 1.6 1.2 0.1 3.2
2011 4.0 1.7 2.2 3.6 0.1 2.8
2012 4.6 3.0 1.6 1.9 0.1 2.8
2013 4.7 3.0 1.6 1.9 0.2 3.5
2014 5.8 4.0 1.7 2.0 1.4 3.9
2015 6.1 4.2 1.8 2.0 2.7 4.4
2016 5.8 3.9 1.8 2.1 3.8 4.7
2017 5.7 3.8 1.8 2.1 4.1 5.0
2018 4.6 2.8 1.8 2.1 4.1 5.1
2019 4.4 2.6 1.8 2.1 4.1 5.1
2020 4.3 2.5 1.8 2.1 4.1 5.1
2021 4.3 2.5 1.8 2.1 4.1 5.3
2022 4.3 2.5 1.8 2.1 4.1 5.3
Note: 2011-2022 forecasts were based on data available as of November 15, 2011, and were used for the FY 2013
Budget. The interest rate on 91-day T-bills is measured on a secondary-market discount basis.
Source: The forecast was done jointly by the Council of Economic Advisers, the Department of Commerce
(Bureau of Economic Analysis), the Department of the Treasury, and the Office of Management and Budget.
The Year in Review and the Years Ahead | 75
In early February, the ten forecasters with the lowest unemployment rate
forecasts on the Blue Chip panel of professional forecasters projected that
the unemployment rate would average 8.0 percent in 2012 and 7.4 percent in
2013 while the highest ten projected 8.6 and 8.4 percent for those two years.
Similarly, the members of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee
projected a central-tendency band of 8.2 percent to 8.5 percent for the fourth
quarter of 2012 and 7.4 to 8.1 percent for 2013. And it should be noted
that the CBO and FOMC forecasts are somewhat out of date in view of the
encouraging January labor market report.
The Council of Economic Advisers’ forecast for the gain in payroll
employment was finalized in early February, after the labor market report
was released showing growth of 157,000, 203,000, and 243,000 in November,
December, and January, respectively. Looking ahead, the average monthly
change in payroll employment is projected to rise from 146,000 in 2011 to
Table 2-2
Alternative Labor Market Forecasts, as of February 2012
Unemployment rate (percent) Nonfarm payroll
employmente
(average
monthly
change,
Q4-to-Q4,
thousands)
Feb-2012
Annual average Fourth
quarter
FY 2013
Budgeta
Nov-2011
CBOb
Dec-2011
Blue Chipc
low-high
Feb-2012
FOMCd
low-high
Jan-2012
2011 9.0 9.0 — — 146
2012 8.9 8.8 8.0 – 8.6 8.2 – 8.5 167
2013 8.6 9.1 7.4 – 8.4 7.4 – 8.1 220
2014 8.1 8.7 — 6.7 – 7.6 264
2015 7.3 7.4 — — 284
2016 6.5 6.3 — — 259
2017 5.8 5.7 — — 251
2018 5.5 5.5 — — 131
2019 5.4 5.5 — — 101
2020 5.4 5.4 — — 92
2021 5.4 5.4 — — 97
2022 5.4 5.3 — — 89
a The Administration Budget forecast (done jointly by the Council of Economic Advisers, the Office of Management
and Budget, the Department of the Treasury, and the Department of Commerce) was based on data available
as of November 15, 2011.
b The Congressional Budget Office forecast was completed in early December.
c The Blue Chip Economic Indicators for February 2012 was based on a survey of more than 50 professional forecasters
conducted on February 6-7, 2012. The high-10 and low-10 forecasts are the average of the ten highest and
ten lowest forecasts.
d The high and low end of the central tendency of the Federal Open Market Committee announced on January
25, 2012.
e Based on data available on February 5, 2012.
Source: Aspen Publishers, Blue Chip Economic Indicators; Federal Reserve, Federal Open Market Committee.
76 | Chapter 2
about 167,000 in 2012. At this pace, two million jobs will be created during
2012, an increase from the 1.8 million created last year.
Despite shocks that slowed growth in 2011, the Administration
expects an upturn in economic growth. With the economy now operating
below its capacity and many resources still underutilized, we forecast that
the recovery will continue to gain strength.
Growth in GDP over the Long Term
The growth rate of the economy over the long run is determined
by the growth of its supply-side components, although growth rates over
shorter periods can vary considerably. The growth rate that characterizes
the long-run trend in real U.S. GDP—or potential GDP—plays an important
role in guiding the Administration’s long-run forecast, because actual GDP
tends to gravitate toward its potential in the long run. Between 2011:Q3
and 2022:Q4—the projection period for the FY 2013 Budget—potential real
GDP is projected to grow at a 2.5 percent annual rate.
Table 2-3 shows the Administration’s forecast for the contribution
of each supply-side factor to the growth in potential real GDP. The factors
include the population, the rate of labor force participation, the employed
share of the labor force, the ratio of nonfarm business employment to
household employment, the workweek, labor productivity, and the ratio
of real GDP to nonfarm output. Each column in Table 2-3 shows the
average annual growth rate for each component over a specific period of
time: The first column shows the long-run average growth rates between
the business-cycle peak of 1953 and the business-cycle peak of 2007, with
business-cycle peaks chosen as end points to remove the substantial fluctuations
within cycles and to reveal long-run trends. The second column
shows average growth rates between 2007:Q4 and 2011:Q3, a period that
includes the 2007-09 recession and the recovery so far. The third column
shows the Administration’s projection for the 11-year period from 2011:Q3
to 2022:Q4, and the fourth column shows average projected growth rates
between 2007:Q4 and 2022:Q4, a blended forecast period over which the
effects of the recession and recovery are offsetting.
The working-age population is projected to grow 1.0 percent a year,
on average, over the projection period (line 1, column 3), the same rate of
growth that is projected by the Census Bureau. Over this same period, the
labor force participation rate is projected to decline 0.1 percent a year (line
2, column 3), primarily because of longstanding demographic trends. The
projected moderate decline in the labor force participation rate reflects the
balance of opposing influences. The entry of the baby-boom generation
into its retirement years is expected to reduce the participation rate in the
The Year in Review and the Years Ahead | 77
coming years, but some of this reduction is projected to be offset as the labor
market improves. The labor force participation rate may also receive a boost
during the forecast period from the recent increase in the share of young
adults enrolled in school. The share of young adults aged 16 to 24 enrolled in
school rose well above its trend between January 2008 and December 2011,
sufficient to account for the entire decline in the labor force participation
rate for this age group over this period (Figure 2-16). As these young adults
complete their education, they are expected to re-enter the labor force.
Taking into account all of these effects, the labor force participation rate is
projected to recede about 0.1 percent a year between now and 2022.
The employed share of the labor force—which is equal to 1 minus
the unemployment rate—is expected to increase 0.4 percent per year over
the next 11 years (line 3, column 3) but to be nearly unchanged, on balance,
between 2007 and 2022 (line 3, column 4). 16 Because of the recession, the
employed share of the labor force has contributed negatively to GDP growth
16 To be precise, changes in the employment ratio reduce growth in real GDP by 0.04
percentage point per year between 2007:Q4 and 2022:Q4, because the unemployment rate in
2007:Q4 (4.8 percent) was below the level consistent with stable inflation, which is expected to
remain stable at around 5.4 percent from 2007 through the end of the projection period.
Table 2-3
Components of Actual and Potential Real GDP Growth, 1952–2022
Component
Growth ratea
History,
peak-topeak
Recent history,
since
peak
Forecast
History and
forecast,
since peak
1953:Q2 to
2007:Q4b
2007:Q4 to
2011:Q3
2011:Q3 to
2022:Q4
2007:Q4 to
2022:Q4
1 Civilian noninstitutional population aged 16+ 1.4 1.1 1.0 1.0
2 Labor force participation rate 0.2 –0.8 –0.1 –0.3
3 Employed share of the labor force –0.0 –1.2 0.4 –0.0
4 Ratio of nonfarm business employment to
household employment
0.0 –1.0 0.1 –0.2
5 Average weekly hours (nonfarm business) –0.3 –0.1 0.0 –0.0
6 Output per hour (productivity, nonfarm
business)
2.1 1.9 2.3 2.2
7 Ratio of real GDP to nonfarm business output –0.2 0.2 –0.5 –0.3
8 Sum: Actual real GDP 3.2 0.1 3.1 2.4
9 Memo: Potential real GDP 3.2 2.5 2.5 2.5
a All contributions are in percentage points at an annual rate.
b 1953:Q2 and 2007:Q4 are business-cycle peaks.
Note: Population, labor force, and household employment have been adjusted for discontinuities in the population
series. Nonfarm business employment, workweek, and productivity come from the Labor Productivity and Costs
database maintained by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, Labor Productivity and Costs; Bureau of Economic
Analysis, National Income and Product Accounts; Department of the Treasury; Office of Management and Budget;
CEA calculations.
78 | Chapter 2
during the past four years, but the contribution is projected to turn positive
during the projection period.
The workweek is projected to remain roughly unchanged during the
projection period (line 5, column 3) even though it has declined 0.3 percent
a year, on average, over the long run (line 5, column 1). The workweek is
expected to hold steady as a natural labor-market adaptation to the anticipated
decline in the labor force participation rate.
Labor productivity is projected to increase 2.3 percent a year over the
forecast horizon (line 6, column 3), a slight increase over the average growth
rate from 1953–2007 (line 6, column 1). The elevated rate of long-term
unemployment poses some risk to the projection insofar as the human capital
of workers may deteriorate with prolonged unemployment. On the other
hand, higher rates of school enrollment among young adults in recent years,
as noted, should contribute to productivity growth in the coming years.
The ratio of real GDP to nonfarm business output is expected to subtract
from GDP growth over the projection period (line 7, column 3), consistent
with its long-run trend. The nonfarm business sector generally grows
faster than other sectors, such as government, households, and nonprofit
institutions, reflecting an accounting convention that holds productivity
growth to zero for government.
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2002:Q1 2004:Q1 2006:Q1 2008:Q1 2010:Q1 2012:Q1
Educational enrollment rate
Labor force participation
and enrollment rate
Labor force
participation rate
Note: Enrollment rate is defined as the number of those enrolled in school but not in the labor force
as a share of the population. Shading denotes recession.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; CEA calculations.
Percent, seasonally adjusted
Figure 2-16
Labor Force Participation and Educational Enrollment,
Ages 16–24, 2002–2011
2011:Q4
The Year in Review and the Years Ahead | 79
Summing each of these pieces, real GDP is projected to rise at an
average 3.1 percent a year over the projection period (line 8, column 3),
notably faster than the 2.5 percent annual growth rate for potential real GDP
(line 9, column 3). Actual GDP is expected to grow faster than potential
GDP primarily because of the projected rise in the employment rate (line
3, column 3) as millions of workers who are currently unemployed find
jobs. Smoothing through the effects of the recent business cycle, real GDP is
expected to rise 2.4 percent a year, on average, over the 15-year period from
2007 to 2022, just short of the growth rate of potential real GDP of 2.5 percent
because the economy in 2007 is estimated to have been above its trend.
Real potential GDP is projected to rise 2.5 percent a year in 2007–2022
(line 8, column 4), more slowly than the long-term historical growth rate of
3.2 percent a year (line 8, column 1). The projected slowdown in real potential
GDP growth reflects the lower projected growth rate of the working-age
population and the aging of the baby-boom cohort into retirement. The
effects of the financial crisis and the 2007–09 recession, in contrast, are
expected to have little effect on the level of potential real GDP by the end of
the projection, because the recession is not expected to permanently reduce
any of the demographically-determined elements of long-term growth.
An important question addressed in the budget outlook, however, is
how quickly real GDP will return to its potential level. In the Administration’s
2013 Budget forecast, the U.S. economy catches up to potential real GDP in
the second half of the forecast period. The historical record supports this
forecast. The full recovery of real GDP during the decade following the Great
Depression suggests that the U.S. economy can recover from a severe shock
to return to this underlying trend level.
Conclusion
The U.S. economy continued to recover in 2011 from the severe
effects of the financial crisis and the deep recession that followed. The rise
in real GDP since the beginning of the recovery has been roughly similar
to the trend in both following the 1991 and 2001 recessions, while private
payroll growth came sooner and more swiftly than in the beginning of the
recovery from the 2001 recession. The housing market began to show signs
of life in 2011, and is likely to have a positive effect on the economy, though
from a low base.
As 2012 begins, the recovery appears most likely to proceed at a
moderate pace over the coming year, with the gains in output and employment
increasing in subsequent years, as credit conditions continue to ease
80 | Chapter 2
and confidence improves. Ensuring this outcome requires policies that both
restore balance to the economy by increasing aggregate demand and guard
against the types of excesses that led to the crisis in the first place. With
millions of Americans still unemployed, much work remains to restore the
U.S. economy to full health. Only a prolonged and robust expansion can
eliminate the large jobs deficit that opened up during the recession, and the
economy as a whole has considerable room to grow. The fact that private
job growth has closely tracked the pattern of the early 1990s expansion is
encouraging, and highlights the importance of sustaining the recovery.
81
C H A P T E R 3
RESTORING FISCAL
RESPONSIBILITY
When President Obama took office three years ago, the Administration
was given an annual deficit of $1.3 trillion and a projected 10-year
fiscal shortfall of more than $8 trillion.1 The Administration has taken many
steps to restore fiscal responsibility because large and sustained fiscal imbalances
pose one of the Nation’s greatest economic challenges. Policymakers
are charged with the dual imperative of safeguarding the ongoing economic
recovery while simultaneously ensuring that future generations are not
burdened with excessive debt and that future government borrowing does
not unduly crowd out private investment. In the near term, sharp deficit
reduction serves as a drag on aggregate demand and threatens to disrupt
ongoing economic growth. In the long term, persistent budget deficits can
reduce national saving, raise interest rates, and discourage private domestic
investment, even in an economy as dynamic and robust as our own. These
seemingly conflicting concerns make deficit reduction a crucial but delicate
endeavor.
Recognizing the economic risks associated with sustained large budget
deficits, the Obama Administration has made deficit reduction a priority.
In February 2010, the President signed the Statutory Pay-As-You-Go Act, a
law that restored the commonsense principle of paying for permanent mandatory
spending or tax changes—a rule that had lapsed or been waived during
the previous decade. In March 2010, the President signed the Affordable
Care Act, which both expands health coverage and directly addresses one
of the key drivers of the long-term deficits, rising health care costs. Last
summer, the President and Congress enacted a $1 trillion deficit-reduction
package in the Budget Control Act of 2011, with a minimum $1.2 trillion
1 In this chapter only, unless otherwise noted, budget deficits and spending programs are
reported in fiscal years and tax receipts are reported in calendar years.
82 | Chapter 3
in further reductions scheduled to follow. As a way forward, the President
has laid out a balanced plan that would—in combination with the Budget
Control Act and other deficit reduction measures taken since the beginning
of 2011—cut the 10-year deficit by more than $4 trillion, bring the budget
into primary balance so that revenues cover all noninterest expenditures,
and reduce debt as a share of the economy. These steps represent a radical
departure from the budget policies of the previous administration, which
included a series of sweeping tax cuts skewed toward the wealthiest, establishment
of the Medicare prescription drug benefit program, and wars in
Iraq and Afghanistan—all enacted without being offset by cuts or additional
revenue raised elsewhere in the budget.
This chapter highlights the sources of budget deficits and public debt,
describes projected budget outlooks, and outlines the Administration’s
deficit-reduction plan, a balanced approach that recognizes the need to
prioritize spending initiatives while aligning revenues with current spending
by asking the highest-income Americans to contribute to deficit reduction,
as well as closing loopholes for corporations and special interests. The
President’s plan acknowledges that balancing the budget on the spending
side of the ledger alone would hurt programs that help the middle class and
those trying to get into it and put at risk other national priorities, such as
investment in infrastructure and education.
The prospective fiscal imbalances have been decades in the making.
Restoring balance will necessitate bold and difficult reforms in government
programs. Although the Affordable Care Act and the Budget Control Act
were the most aggressive Federal deficit-reduction legislation in years, much
work remains to be done. Because budget projections show continued fiscal
imbalances, it is critical for Congress to work with the Administration to
return the Nation to a sound fiscal outlook.
Determinants of Current Deficits
Under current law and established budget policy, which are reflected
in the adjusted baseline of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB),
the annual budget would improve rapidly as the economy recovers, falling
from $1.3 trillion in 2011 (8.7 percent of GDP) to $662 billion in 2014 (3.9
percent of GDP). Despite these projected improvements, the deficits moving
forward are expected to remain at unsustainable levels absent additional
policy actions. The fiscal shortfall is not primarily driven by countercyclical
policies enacted in response to the Great Recession. Instead, recent deficits
are principally the result of spending policies enacted during the previous
Restoring Fiscal Responsibility | 83
administration, sweeping tax cuts initiated in 2001 and 2003,2 and economic
conditions. While temporary policies designed to increase aggregate
demand, improve business investment, and jump-start employment contributed
to annual deficits immediately following the financial crisis, they
are less costly than the previous decade’s spending and tax policies; most
importantly, they are temporary emergency measures projected to have a
minimal effect on annual budget deficits going forward.
As noted, spending policies enacted in the early part of the previous
decade are one of the primary causes of recent deficits. Wars in Iraq
and Afghanistan, substantially more costly than initially announced by the
previous administration, added $1.3 trillion in military spending between
September 2001 and December 2011. The Medicare Part D prescription
drug benefit, enacted in 2003, has raised Medicare spending by over
$250 billion through calendar year 2011. Increased interest costs associated
with these programs have driven deficits even higher.
Tax cuts initiated in the previous decade, including those for the
wealthiest individuals, have helped drive down tax revenues to historical
lows. In particular, sweeping cuts in income and estate taxes, initially
enacted in 2001 and 2003, have reduced revenue and increased interest costs
by nearly $3.0 trillion between 2001 and 2011 (Ruffing and Horney 2011). In
2011, Federal tax receipts amounted to just 14.4 percent of GDP, far below
the postwar average of 17.7 percent. Part of this revenue shortfall is attributable
to temporary tax cuts designed to aid the economy and create jobs,
and part to the slow rebound of wages, investment income, and corporate
profits—the income base from which tax receipts are primarily derived. But
several ongoing tax policy trends that long predated the financial crisis have
also put downward pressure on tax revenue.
By comparison, policies enacted to revitalize the economy and stabilize
the financial system have contributed only moderately to deficits over
the past several years, with a substantially waning impact after 2012. The
American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (the Recovery Act) of 2009 cost
$833 billion overall, while the most recent Troubled Asset Relief Program
(TARP) cost estimate is just $68 billion. Other countercyclical measures,
including the 2 percentage point payroll tax reduction for workers, have also
carried relatively small costs, which have often been offset by other budget
measures. For example, the Temporary Payroll Tax Cut Continuation Act
of 2011, which temporarily extended the payroll tax cut, unemployment
2 These policies contributed to a historic gap between projected and realized budget outcomes.
In 2001, following several years of budget surpluses, the Congressional Budget Office projected
a cumulative surplus of $5.6 trillion between 2001 and 2011 (CBO 2001). No surplus was
realized after 2001, and a cumulative deficit of $6.5 trillion accumulated between 2001 and
2011.
84 | Chapter 3
benefits, and certain about-to-expire Medicare provisions regarding physician
payments, included offsets that made the bill deficit neutral.
Figure 3-1 compares the incremental cost of various post-2001 determinants
of the deficit, including the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, economic
downturns, 2001 and 2003 tax cuts, financial stabilization measures, and
economic stimulus initiatives. What the figure does not show is the path the
deficit would have taken had the Great Recession persisted. The projections
in the figure, based on Congressional Budget Office (CBO) data, incorporate
both the direct economic growth owing to countercyclical measures
undertaken by the Obama Administration and the subsequent projected
economic recovery. If economic growth had turned negative instead of
growing throughout 2009–11, or if the financial system had remained in
turmoil, the tax base would have eroded further and the fiscal crisis would
have been more severe.
The connection between unused countercyclical fiscal policy and
stunted economic growth has been shown time and again. From the Great
Depression, to Japan’s Lost Decade, to international attempts to enact austerity
measures during economic recessions, research has shown that in the
absence of countercyclical measures, recessions become even more severe
(Auerbach and Gale 2010). As painful as the past three years have been
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
War costs
Bush-era tax cuts
Recovery measures
TARP, Fannie, and Freddie
Economic downturn
Deficit without these factors
Billions of dollars
Figure 3-1
Selected Components of Deficit Projections: 2009–2019
Note: Based on CBO budget projections. CBO employs different economic
assumptions and methodology than OMB. As a result, the projections presented in
this figure may differ from those presented by OMB.
Source: Ruffing and Horney (2011).
Restoring Fiscal Responsibility | 85
for the U.S. economy, countercyclical measures brought the downturn to a
quicker end and have reinforced the recovery.
While demographic trends and rising health care costs pose serious
challenges on the spending side of the ledger, the failure of tax revenue to
match Federal spending remains a primary concern.
Falling Effective Tax Rates on Upper-Income Taxpayers
Effective tax rates, also known as average tax rates, are simply the
amount of taxes paid as a share of total income. In contrast, marginal rates
are defined as the taxes paid on an additional dollar of earnings. Tax preferences,
such as preferential rates for investment income or deductions for
particular activities, can drive effective tax rates far below marginal tax rates.
As a result, effective tax rates have varied over time with periodic tax reforms
and a shift in the composition of income among high earners toward business
and capital income. Several of the President’s tax policy initiatives,
including the American Opportunity Tax Credit, the expansion of refundable
tax credits for families with children, and the cut in the payroll tax, have
provided tax relief for middle-income Americans.
In order to isolate the effects of changing tax policy on effective tax
rates, a useful exercise is to track effective tax rates holding income characteristics
constant. Under this methodology, as indicated in Figure 3-2,
effective tax rates on middle-income Americans rose slightly in the 1960s
and 1970s, and then remained mostly flat between 1980 and the start of
the Obama Presidency. Effective tax rates for the top 1 percent have varied
moderately over the past five decades, peaking in about 1980 before falling
back to lower levels between the late 1980s and the present. In stark contrast,
the wealthiest taxpayers have seen their effective tax rate plummet over the
past five decades because of changes in Federal tax policies. The wealthiest
1-in-1,000 taxpayers pay barely a quarter of their income in Federal taxes
today—half of what they would have contributed in 1960.
Although trends in effective tax rates are attributable to a variety
of factors, the tax cuts initiated under the previous administration had a
notable impact. When the Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation
Act of 2001 cut statutory income tax rates, high-income taxpayers benefited
disproportionately, in large part because of the cut in the top rate from 39.6
percent to 35.0 percent. Two years later, in 2003, preferential rates on longterm
capital gains and dividends were cut to historical lows of 15 percent,
again resulting in large benefits for the upper-income taxpayers who realize
the bulk of investment income.
Treasury data show clearly that high-income families benefited the
most from the 2001 and 2003 tax law changes. For example, as Figure 3-3
86 | Chapter 3
illustrates, between 2000 and 2008, income tax rates fell more for the top
1 percent and top 0.1 percent of the income distribution than for the middleincome
quintile. Average individual income tax rates fell by 4.7 percentage
points for families in the top 0.1 percent, but only by 3.7 percent for middleincome
families.
To help reduce the deficit consistent with the notion of shared responsibility,
the President’s Fiscal Year 2013 Budget proposes to let the tax breaks
expire for income above $250,000 a year, reversing a decade-long trend of
unequal tax benefits for the wealthy, while making the tax cuts for those
families making $250,000 or less permanent.
Heterogeneity in Effective Tax Rates among High-Income
Taxpayers
The gradual drop in effective tax rates on high-income taxpayers is
only part of the story. Effective tax rates on these taxpayers also vary widely
because of the tax code’s differing treatment of various sources of income,
allowances for changing the timing of taxes paid, and various deductions
and credits. For example, a high-income taxpayer who is compensated
primarily with cash wages might remit in excess of 30 percent of income in
payroll and income taxes, while a high-income taxpayer who receives a large
share of compensation in the form of interest in an investment fund (known
as “carried interest”) would have a far lower tax rate.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Average tax rate
Note: Average Federal (income plus Federal Insurance Contributions Act) tax rates for a
sample of 2005 taxpayers after adjusting for growth in the National Average Wage Index.
Source: Internal Revenue System Statistics of Income 2005 Public Use File, National
Bureau of Economic Research TAXSIM, and CEA calculations.
Figure 3-2
Average Tax Rates for Selected Income Groups
Under a Fixed Income Distribution, 1960–2010
Top 0.1%
Top 1%
Middle
20%
Restoring Fiscal Responsibility | 87
In 2012, among taxpayers in the highest income quintile, effective tax
rates (including income, payroll, and corporate taxes) are expected to vary
between 12.1 percent for those at the 10th percentile (in terms of effective tax
rates) to 29.3 percent for those at the 90th percentile. That is, 10 percent of
all high-income taxpayers are expected to pay less than 12.1 percent of their
income in Federal taxes and another 10 percent are expected to pay more
than 29.3 percent (the remaining 80 percent will pay somewhere in between
the two rates). For the top 1 percent of taxpayers, the variation in rates is
even starker. Among those in the top 1 percent, one in ten taxpayers is
expected to pay less than 8.7 percent of their income in taxes, while another
one in ten is expected to pay 34.6 percent or more (see Table 3-1).
The variation is perhaps most evident at the very top of the income
distribution. In 2008, the most recent year for which data are available, 30 of
the 400 highest-earning taxpayers (7.5 percent) paid less than 10 percent of
their income in Federal income taxes, while 59 (14.8 percent) paid in excess
of 30 percent.
Addressing the Role Of Exclusions and Deductions in Effective
Tax Burdens
As noted, effective tax rates vary widely because of myriad deductions,
exemptions, and preferences in the tax code. Moreover, particular streams
of income are excluded from taxation entirely. But, as noted, the expanding
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1st
quintile
2nd
quintile
Middle
quintile
4th
quintile
Highest
quintile
Top 10
percent
Top 5
percent
Top 1
percent
Top 0.1
percent
Average tax rate, 2000
Average tax rate, 2008
Average tax rate
Note: Quintiles are based on adjusted gross income.
Source: Department of Treasury.
Figure 3-3
Average Individual Income Tax Rates by Income
Quintile, 2000 and 2008
88 | Chapter 3
array of such tools within the tax code has enabled some high-income taxpayers
to reduce their tax liability dramatically. Decades ago, the Alternative
Minimum Tax (AMT) was enacted in an attempt to combat the low rates
paid by some high-income taxpayers, but its poor design has caused it to fall
primarily on upper-middle-income families from high-tax states, as well as
on those with many children (Burman 2007). In addition, because the value
of a deduction or exclusion is a function of a taxpayer’s marginal tax rate,
deductions and exclusions from taxable income are typically worth much
more to high-income households—as much as two to three times more—
than to low- and middle-income ones.
As a way to combat this “upside-down” system of tax incentives,
the President has proposed several principles for tax reform. The
President’s proposed Buffett rule would ensure that Americans making
more than $1 mill,ion a year would pay no less a share of their income than
middle-income families pay—in particular, no less than 30 percent of their
income—in taxes. In addition, the President has proposed tax reform that
would ensure fair incentives for the middle class, helping to equalize the
value of tax expenditures across the income distribution. (For information
on how to evaluate effective tax rates based on their progressivity, see
Economics Application Box 3-1).
The Fiscal Outlook
Without the pro-growth policies of the past three years, future budget
shortfalls would be even more severe. Moreover, the policies presented
in the Administration’s Fiscal Year 2013 Budget significantly improve
Table 3-1
Distribution of Average Federal Tax Rates
Family cash income group
Average rate at each breakpoint in the rate distribution
10th 25th Median 75th 90th
Lowest quintile –13.7 0.0 5.4 13.1 15.5
Second quintile –8.7 0.5 7.2 17.0 20.9
Middle quintile 1.7 5.4 13.3 20.4 23.5
Fourth quintile 7.2 12.1 17.2 22.3 26.2
Highest quintile 12.1 17.4 21.9 26.0 29.3
Total 0.0 5.0 14.5 20.7 25.0
Top 1 percent 8.7 21.2 29.6 32.3 34.6
Note: Calculations assume 2012 tax law with an AMT patch and 2012 income levels, and includes individual
income tax, corporate income tax, and payroll tax. For the lowest income quintile, the calculation of average rates
and the distribution of average rates do not include families with negative income. These families are included in
the total.
Source: Department of Treasury.
Restoring Fiscal Responsibility | 89
projected medium-term deficits relative to an adjusted policy baseline, and
projected long-term public debt continues to rapidly decline over the course
of the Obama Administration.
Medium-Term Budget Projections
Under the OMB adjusted baseline, medium-term deficits gradually
decline as a share of GDP—projected deficits fall from 8.7 percent of
GDP in 2011 to 4.7 percent of GDP in 2022, as Figure 3-4 indicates. This
adjusted baseline represents a medium-term scenario in which current policies
continue throughout the decade. The scenario includes the continued
indexation of AMT parameters, extension of the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts, and
extension of the estate tax parameters at their current levels, as well as a continuation
of current levels of spending for Overseas Contingency Operations
and physician pay rates under Medicare.
This improved fiscal outlook is due in large part to a recovering economy
and the fiscal steps the Administration has already taken, including the
Affordable Care Act and the Budget Control Act. Nonetheless, this adjusted
baseline remains problematic and represents a fundamental imbalance
between government spending and revenues. The President’s plan to rebalance
revenue streams and spending priorities is detailed later in the chapter.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Percent of GDP
Note: See text for policies incorporated in OMB's adjusted baseline.
Source: Office of Management and Budget (2012a).
Figure 3-4
Projected Medium-Term Budget Deficits, 2011–2022
Adjusted baseline
90 | Chapter 3
Economics Application Box 3-1:
Measuring Progressivity in the Tax Code
Tax changes are typically evaluated based on several key criteria,
including efficiency, simplicity, ease of compliance and administration,
impact on economic activity, and progressivity. Progressivity is the measure
of how a particular policy affects households with differing levels
of income or resources. Fairness is the essence of progressivity; many
taxes—particularly income taxes—are designed to ensure a lighter tax
burden for households with less income and lower ability to pay.
Economists typically define a progressive tax as one that has average
tax rates that increase with income; under a progressive tax code,
higher-income taxpayers devote a higher share of their income to taxes
than other taxpayers. A progressive tax change is one that lowers average
tax rates more for low- and middle-income households relative to others
or raises average tax rates more for high-income households relative to
others. For example, the recent 2 percentage point cut in the payroll tax
is considered progressive because it reduces average tax rates more for
low- and middle-income families compared to high-income families.
Other measures of progressivity, such as measures that refer
strictly to dollar changes in taxes paid or to the percentage change in
taxes paid, can be misleading. For example, a tax cut might reduce
taxes paid by low-income households from $100 to $50 (a change of
50 percent), and reduce taxes paid by high-income households from
$500,000 to $400,000 (a change of just 20 percent). Some might argue
that this change is progressive because it reduces taxes paid by lowincome
households by proportionately more than it reduces taxes paid
by high-income households, but this measure is actually inconclusive
because it tells us nothing about the change in average tax rates. Along
these same lines, metrics that focus on the share of taxes paid are not
useful because they do not incorporate information on average tax rates
by income group.
The definition of income or well-being can also be important
when measuring progressivity. Some forms of compensation—such as
employer contributions to a retirement account or health insurance
premiums paid by an employer—may not be considered income for tax
purposes but might in principle be considered as income for measuring
taxpayer resources. Similarly, income transfers such as unemployment
compensation or Social Security benefits could be included in income
when measuring progressivity.
The extent to which the tax code equalizes income is expressed
graphically by the Lorenz curve in the box, which shows the cumulative
Restoring Fiscal Responsibility | 91
The Vital Role of Economic Growth in Future Fiscal Outcomes
Budget discipline is nearly impossible to achieve in practice without
healthy economic growth. Budget outcomes are sensitive to weak economic
conditions. Deteriorating economic conditions resulting from the financial
crisis are one of the most important determinants of projected medium-term
deficits, accounting for $3.9 trillion in expected deficits between 2009 and
2019 (as shown earlier in Figure 3-1). OMB (2012b) projects that a 1 percentage
point drop in GDP growth in 2012, not matched with a subsequent
boost in GDP in later years, would increase the deficit by $720 billion over 10
years. Similarly, CBO (2011b) projects that an ongoing 0.1 percentage point
distribution of income before and after taxes. The 45 degree line
represents a perfectly equal distribution of income; the closer the
Lorenz curve to that line of equality, the more equal the distribution of
income. A progressive tax code is one that shifts the income distribution
closer to the 45 degree line. In 2007, the tax code helped to improve the
progressivity of the income distribution, as illustrated by the graph, by
making after-tax income more equal than before-tax income. However,
even the after-tax Lorenz curve was well below the 45 degree line,
meaning that the distribution of after-tax income was highly skewed
towards the highest-income taxpayers.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 20 40 60 80 100
Cumulative share of population
Before-tax
income
After-tax
income
Line of
equality
Source: Congressional Budget Office (2011a).
Cumulative share of income
Income Concentration, 2007
92 | Chapter 3
decrease in real GDP growth compared to its baseline forecast will add $310
billion to the projected 2012–2021 deficit.
The link between economic growth and fiscal stability is, in fact,
central to the rationale for countercyclical measures like the Recovery Act
and the American Jobs Act. Although the countercyclical measures in these
bills may impose an initial fiscal cost,3 the cost can be considered a down
payment on future economic growth, which in turn can lead to a more stable
fiscal policy. Economic growth leads to a sound fiscal outlook.
Improvement in Long-Run Budget Projections
Although the need for long-run deficit reduction is evident, recent
Administration policies have already helped to partially close the long-run
fiscal imbalance. As noted, the Budget Control Act of 2011 reduced Federal
spending by $1 trillion over the next decade by making cuts to discretionary
spending, with an additional $1.2 trillion in deficit reduction scheduled to
3 The President’s proposed American Jobs Act is deficit-neutral; all provisions are more than
fully paid for.
Data Watch 3-1: Data from the IRS Statistics of Income Division
The Statistics of Income (SOI) Division of the Treasury Department’s
Internal Revenue Service produces informative annual statistics.
The resulting information is an important input to the National Income
and Product Accounts and has been invaluable for the evaluation of
economic and tax policies, as well as for business decisions.
One advantage of SOI statistics is that they are available for a long
period of time: historical data series cover the period from 1916 to the
present. Of particular interest are tabulations of selected items by county
and ZIP Code, such as migration patterns. Extensive data also are
available on businesses, including corporations, partnerships, and sole
proprietorships. In response to increased globalization, for example,
SOI produces regular reports on both foreign-owned U.S. corporations
and U.S.-owned corporations operating in other counties.
More than 14,000 detailed tables and regular reports are available
to the public online through the Tax Stats pages located at www.irs.gov.
Periodic special reports have examined topics such as pensions, foreign
earned income, and noncash charitable contributions. Users may create
custom tables using a table wizard application. Importantly, SOI painstakingly
safeguards the confidentiality and anonymity of the underlying
information it draws on. Statistics derived from the SOI provide a rich
source of information for policymakers, business people, researchers,
and public interest groups, among others.
Restoring Fiscal Responsibility | 93
come. The Administration regards this legislation as a down payment on
deficit reduction, and last fall proposed to Congress an additional $3 trillion
deficit-reduction package that would, by the middle of this decade, mean
that current spending is no longer adding to the debt, and that debt is falling
as a share of the economy.
Health care legislation passed in 2010 is a key factor to gains in longrun
deficit reduction. The Affordable Care Act addressed the Nation’s most
profound long-run budget challenge by limiting the growth in health care
costs in several ways. (Chapter 7 discusses Health Insurance Exchanges
as well as other provisions of the Affordable Care Act and existing health
programs.) The Act includes Medicare payment reforms that will restrain
spending growth by rewarding improvements in health care productivity.
It established the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation, which will
fund and test new strategies for providing high-quality care more efficiently,
and the Independent Payment Advisory Board, which will recommend
policies to reduce the growth in Medicare spending, without limiting beneficiaries’
access to care. The projections presented in this chapter assume that
the provisions of the Affordable Care Act are fully implemented, limiting
Medicare costs in the long run compared with previous law. The Medicare
Trustees estimate these gains to be substantial, slowing the average longrange
annual growth in Medicare spending per enrollee to just 0.2 percentage
point a year above the growth in GDP per capita. This growth rate is significantly
smaller than previous Medicare Trustee projections—a reduction
that is largely attributable to the Affordable Care Act. These trends indicate
that in the absence of recent health care reform, long-run budget projections
would be substantially worse.
The Importance of Restoring
Fiscal Sustainability
Reducing the deficit while the economy continues to recover requires
a delicate balance. Looming fiscal shortfalls can seem a distant concern in the
face of high unemployment and sluggish economic growth. But as a result of
continued growth since 2009 and a gradual recovery from the financial crisis
of 2008, the Administration maintains its view that short-term economic
support and long-term fiscal responsibility can be complementary policies.
Although reducing the deficit is a difficult task, it is critical to the Nation’s
future. As the debt-to-GDP ratio has steadily risen, economists have become
increasingly concerned about the consequences of persistent deficits.
Not all types of deficit spending yield identical effects on the budget.
The net economic effect of budget deficits depends critically on the
94 | Chapter 3
characteristics of the underlying spending. Public borrowing to finance
productive investment, including investment in infrastructure, technology,
and education, can yield positive fiscal returns in the future. A more productive
private sector will lead to higher profits and stronger wage growth,
which will ultimately prove to boost revenues and reduce spending in later
years. As such, government spending that makes the private sector more
productive is distinctly different from spending devoted to consumption in
the current period.
Prolonged fiscal shortfalls also tend to raise interest rates. Today’s
historically low interest rates may make that link between interest rates
and deficits seem tenuous, but in typical economic circumstances, budget
deficits drive interest rates higher by increasing the demand for saving. The
consensus view among economists is that a 1 percent increase in the deficit
relative to GDP leads to a 20- to 60- basis-point rise in interest rates (Gale
and Orszag 2003). Higher interest rates depress interest-sensitive consumption
(such as housing and durable goods) and diminish asset values and
household wealth.
Of perhaps greater concern is the potential for prolonged budget
deficits to impact domestic private investment via elevated interest rates.
All else equal, higher interest rates can divert savings away from productive
domestic investment towards government securities; higher interest rates
also encourage domestic and foreign savers to increase their net investment
in the United States. Thus, higher budget deficits can be financed by a combination
of reduced domestic private-sector investment, increased domestic
saving, and additional lending by foreign investors. Although there is no
consensus among economists on the relative share of each of these factors,
studies often assume that about 25 percent of the increase in the budget
deficit is met with increased private-sector saving (Elmendorf and Liebman
2000) and about 20 to 40 percent through increased foreign lending (Engen
and Hubbard 2005).
An active research agenda has considered how government debt
affects the economy. According to research by economists Carmen Reinhart
and Kenneth Rogoff (2010), “high debt/GDP levels (90 percent and above)
are associated with notably lower growth outcomes.” Several aspects of this
finding warrant mention. First, although slow growth and debt are correlated,
high debt does not necessarily cause stagnant growth. In fact, some
have theorized that stagnant growth leads to higher levels of debt, rather
than the other way around (Irons and Bivens 2010). Second, some question
whether the 90 percent threshold is appropriate for the largest economy in
the world, especially given the ongoing appetite of foreign and domestic
investors for Treasury debt and the relative attractiveness of investment in
Restoring Fiscal Responsibility | 95
the United States. Finally, some have argued that the key factor in measuring
the impact of debt on the economy is debt held by the public, rather than
total debt (including intragovernmental debt; see Data Watch 3-2 for further
explanation).
Although the precise impact of government debt on economic growth
is subject to debate, economists agree that confidence is paramount in the
relationship between government debt and financial markets. A long-term
commitment to sound fiscal policies will reassure investors that the government
can service its debt. More importantly, sound fiscal policy and a commitment
to living within our means and investing in the future will ensure
better access to capital by domestic investors, as well as higher standards of
living for future generations.
The President’s Balanced Approach
to Deficit Reduction
The President’s proposed framework for deficit reduction, laid out
in the Fiscal Year 2013 Budget, represents a balanced approach along
several dimensions. Deficit-reduction measures are phased in gradually to
avoid disrupting the economic recovery. Ineffective spending programs
are eliminated, while tax expenditures on the Nation’s wealthiest taxpayers
are limited. Targeted investment initiatives, including those for education,
infrastructure, and personal saving, are paid for by eliminating ineffective
tax cuts to high-income taxpayers. Most importantly, the President’s Budget
charts a sustainable fiscal course, ensuring that the budget deficit will fall to
a sustainable level in the next 10 years and beyond. In sum, the President’s
Budget represents a critical first step toward a stable and prosperous economic
future and ensures that the American economy will remain competitive
and vibrant for decades.
The cornerstone of the President’s approach to deficit reduction—and
perhaps the way in which it differs most from plans offered by others—is
the balance it strikes between sustainable tax revenues and spending cuts. A
deficit-reduction framework based on spending cuts alone would preclude
the provision of basic protections provided to the Nation’s most vulnerable
citizens and investment in the Nation’s future. The balanced approach of the
President’s Budget preserves the basic functions of the Federal Government.
Medicare and Medicaid are strengthened, ensuring health care for the
nation’s elderly, low-income families, and individuals with disabilities.
Social Security continues to provide a reliable, steady stream of income
for retirees. The military continues to receive funding to serve American
interests at home and abroad. Veterans continue to receive the support they
96 | Chapter 3
Data Watch 3-2: Measuring Government Debt across Countries
Differences in government accounting practices and in the types
of assets held by central governments complicate the comparison of
government debt across countries. These complications can lead to
confusion over the most appropriate measure of government debt and
the relative levels of debt for different countries.
One source of misunderstanding is the distinction between public
debt and total government debt. Public debt refers to government debt
held by private investors, including individuals, pension funds, mutual
funds, and corporations. Total government debt is the sum of public
debt and intragovernmental debt—government debt held in government
accounts, such as government securities held in the U.S. Social Security
and Medicare trust funds. Economists widely recognize public debt as
the more relevant measure since it is government borrowing from the
private sector that can be expected to interact with credit markets.
In most Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
(OECD) countries, there is little intragovernmental debt. In the
United States and Canada, however, budgetary conventions give rise to
large accumulations of such debt. At the end of December 2011, U.S.
debt totaled $15.2 trillion, of which $10.5 trillion was held by the public
and $4.8 trillion was intragovernmental debt. Intragovernmental debt is
similarly important in Canada. Including intragovernmental debt when
making international comparisons leads to an exaggerated impression
of government indebtedness in the United States and Canada relative to
other OECD nations.
A second source of confusion is the distinction between gross
debt and net debt. The OECD measures gross debt as total liabilities
outstanding, including securities issued on behalf of the government
(such as Treasury securities), currency, and liabilities to government
employee pension funds. Net debt is measured as gross debt minus
government-owned financial assets. The importance of this distinction
varies across countries. In Japan, for example, the difference is stark:
gross government debt equaled 220 percent of GDP in 2010, while net
government debt was just 117 percent of GDP.
A final source of misunderstanding concerns the particular government
sector being measured. The OECD presents measures of general
government debt, which encompasses debt at all levels of government,
including State and local governments in the United States, and central
government debt. Both of these measures carry economic significance,
but the distinction matters insofar as central governments generally are
not liable for debt incurred by other levels of government.
Restoring Fiscal Responsibility | 97
deserve. Investments in education, infrastructure, and innovation continue
to be a priority. Many other deficit-reduction plans fall short in these areas.
While the President’s Budget makes and maintains critical investments
in areas important to growth and competitiveness, it also institutes
broadly shared sacrifices to reduce the deficit. The Administration proposes
to achieve $1 trillion in discretionary spending savings over the next
10 years through the budgetary caps established by the Budget Control Act;
$30 billion in deficit reduction through cutting or consolidating ineffective,
duplicative, or outdated Federal programs; adopting a new defense strategy
that cuts defense spending by 9 percent relative to the Fiscal Year 2012
Budget; limiting funding for Overseas Contingency Operations to $450
billion through 2021; a $60 billion fee on large financial firms; adjustments
to the Medicare and Medicaid programs to make them more efficient and
cost-effective; and a reform of the Federal civilian workers’ retirement plan
that saves $21 billion over the next decade.
As the President’s deficit-reduction strategy cuts long-run deficits, it
also supports the economic recovery. The cornerstone of this support is the
American Jobs Act, one of the boldest pieces of pro-employment legislation
in decades. At the end of 2011, the President signed into law several key
parts of the American Jobs Act, including a short-term extension of both the
payroll tax cut and extended unemployment benefits that were set to expire
at the end of 2011. Extending the payroll tax cut into 2012 added an average
of $40 to each paycheck of 160 million American workers. If continued
through 2012 as the President favors, extended unemployment benefits will
save 5 million job seekers from depleting their benefits and will create nearly
500,000 jobs through 2014 as workers spend their extra income. To bolster
labor market conditions and spur near-term economic growth, the President
proposes pushing ahead with elements of the American Jobs Act and with
additional job-creating measures. Among those proposals are an initial $50
billion investment in roads, rails, and runways through surface transportation
reauthorization legislation; aid to states and localities to rehire teachers
and first responders; additional incentives for Americans to invest in energysaving
home improvements through the Homestar Bill; incentives to private
industry to upgrade offices, stores, universities, hospitals, and commercial
buildings through the Better Buildings Initiative; a 10 percent income tax
credit to encourage small businesses to hire new employees and to increase
wages; the halting of an automatic increase in student loan interest to
ease the burden on students; funds to modernize at least 35,000 schools; a
renewed Build America Bonds program to help finance the modernization
and upgrading of America’s infrastructure; reauthorization of Clean Energy
Manufacturing Tax Credits to spur the creation of manufacturing jobs
98 | Chapter 3
in the advanced energy technology sector; continuation of provisions to
allow businesses to write off the full amount of new investments next year;
and enactment of Project Rebuild, a series of policies aimed at connecting
unemployed workers in distressed communities with efforts to rehabilitate
residential and commercial properties.
The President’s deficit-reduction framework also calls for tax reform
that will simplify the tax code and lower rates, cut unfair and unnecessary tax
expenditures, increase growth and job creation in the United States, observe
the Buffett rule, and raise $1.5 trillion from the highest-income Americans
to be devoted to deficit reduction. To begin a national conversation about
tax reform, the President has offered a detailed set of measures to close specific
tax loopholes, broaden the tax base, and allow the high–income tax cuts
of the past decade to expire. With this conversation, the President’s Budget
begins to reclaim the Nation’s fiscal future and restore fiscal responsibility
by making balanced and necessary policy decisions.
99
C H A P T E R 4
STABILIZING AND HEALING
THE HOUSING MARKET
The recession that began at the end of 2007 is inextricably linked with
the bursting of the housing bubble that had built up over the previous
decade. The ensuing shock to financial markets, and the more than $7 trillion
in lost housing wealth, prolonged and deepened the downturn and has
been a headwind for the economic recovery. Although the housing market
is showing signs of stabilization, the healing process is not complete in many
parts of the country.
The bursting of the bubble was a culmination of a multiyear process
of rapid growth in house prices fueled by excess capital flows into the United
States. These flows were converted into home mortgages by various financial
intermediaries using lax underwriting standards and channeled through the
financial system with an increasingly complex web of mortgage securitizations.
These trends, in turn, created unmoored expectations of continuous
price growth that caused a spike in residential construction. The overheated
housing market ultimately proved to be unsustainable, and the return to
more realistic levels has been very painful for the economy. As this process
continues to unfold, responsible policies are needed to assist the market in
its transition to a new, sustainable equilibrium supported by a prudent and
robust financial framework. In this context, healing the housing market
requires laying the foundation for balanced and sustainable growth, while
repairing and improving the housing finance system that helped inflate the
housing bubble.
The effects of the drop in housing prices have been amplified by
the uniqueness of housing as a financial asset class. Indeed, housing is the
single most important asset for a majority of American households. Houses
generate a steady stream of consumption services for their owners, as well as
enabling them to send their children to local schools and use neighborhood
amenities ranging from parks to retail stores to hospitals. They also create
demand and jobs as homeowners furnish their homes and invest in their
100 | Chapter 4
maintenance. By virtue of their tangibility, houses also serve as an important
form of collateral for other borrowing purposes, notably startup financing
for small businesses. Housing collateral attracts lender financing, making
housing the most levered asset in household portfolios and closely linking
the health of the housing market to that of the broader financial sector.
Consequently, declines in housing wealth can have a far greater effect on the
economy than equivalent losses in other financial assets, such as equities.
Setting the housing market back on track is a key step on the road to
recovery. Yet housing presents several particular challenges, many of which
derive from an array of institutional frictions in housing finance markets
that have been exposed by the enormous scale and scope of home price
declines and from very long lags in the adjustment in the stock of housing.
This chapter highlights some of these challenges. They include a poorly
functioning system for loss mitigation of nonperforming mortgages and
effective disposition of mortgaged properties; inadequate origination of
mortgage credit; and obstacles to refinancing, including the widespread phenomenon
of negative equity. These deficiencies form a mutually reinforcing
adverse feedback system in which negative equity raises the likelihood of
delinquencies that often result in a drawn-out foreclosure process, eventually
concluding with distressed sales that exert further downward pressure
on home prices and thereby deepen the amount of negative equity. The large
overhang of unresolved properties in distress, along with mortgage debt in
excess of home value, further feeds this negative dynamic by depressing
price expectations of potential homebuyers and lenders. Left unchecked, this
dynamic creates a dangerous possibility for housing prices to overshoot and
fall below their fundamental values, posing a difficult hurdle for sustained
economic recovery.
Some have argued that the best course of action is to rely on the
market alone to work out the problems of struggling homeowners, negative
equity, and foreclosed properties through liquidation. This approach
disregards the risk of overshooting the bottom, and it fails to recognize the
many complex incentive conflicts that exist between purely private parties,
such as homeowners, investors, and mortgage servicers. These conflicts and
the need to recognize and allocate housing losses to various economic actors,
present a serious collective action problem, the resolution of which by the
market has been sluggish, at best, over the past several years. Perhaps most
important, a laissez-faire approach also disregards the spillover effects of
large numbers of delinquencies and foreclosures on local housing markets,
the financial system, and the toll they exact on American families and the
economy in general.
Stabilizing and Healing the Housing Market | 101
The alternative to sitting back and waiting for these enormous challenges
to work themselves out slowly and painfully is for the Government to
engage in a series of coordinated, measured, and multifaceted policy actions.
This approach involves working in conjunction with market participants
and housing regulators to address the lingering effects of the bursting of
the housing bubble, as suggested, for instance, in a recent Federal Reserve
Board white paper (2012). This chapter describes a set of existing and proposed
policy initiatives that target many of the interlinked housing market
problems. Some of these policies are pursued through Government agencies,
such as the Federal Housing Administration (FHA), the Department
of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), and the Department of the
Treasury. Others are undertaken in conjunction with private investors, and
still others are carried out together with the government-sponsored enterprises
(GSEs), Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, under the supervision of their
regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA).
The Housing Crisis and the
Initial Policy Responses
After growing at a rapid pace through the early years of the new century,
home price appreciation ground to a halt in the summer of 2006. This
change in the path of housing prices triggered an initial wave of subprime
mortgage defaults, and the resulting losses quickly propagated through the
global financial system, bringing it to the brink of collapse and ushering in
a deep recession. By the beginning of 2009, nationwide measures of home
prices had declined for 30 straight months, falling by a total of nearly 28
percent. This drop in the national average masks significant regional variation.
In some states, like Florida and Nevada, where prices had gone up the
fastest, housing prices plummeted by 35 to 50 percent from their peak. Price
drops in some other states were much milder.
Overall, as shown in Figure 4-1, the decline in inflation-adjusted
home prices was unprecedented in the post-World War I U.S. economic
experience in both its severity and its geographic scope. Some of the
regional housing recessions—notably in California and New England in the
early 1990s—generated sharp and long-lasting price declines, but neither
was as steep and prolonged as the current episode. And during the Great
Depression, the only other instance of nationwide price declines since WWI,
much of the comparably-sized decline in nominal home prices was offset by
a concurrent drop in general price levels, so the decline in real housing values
was only about one-quarter as large as the one we recently experienced.
102 | Chapter 4
The unprecedented and ultimately unsustainable nature of housing
market trends before 2007 is further highlighted in Figure 4-2. The dashed
line depicts annualized growth in real levels of mortgage debt per homeowner
household between 1991 and the third quarter of 2011. Mortgage
debt balances grew at a rapid pace from 2001 to 2007, one that far exceeded
growth in real income during this period. There were many factors behind
the escalating household debt. In part, it reflected rising home prices and
growing household leverage driven by extraction of home equity and shrinking
down payment requirements. As households continued to accumulate
mortgage debt in the expectation of ongoing housing appreciation, housing
was becoming less and less affordable, as evidenced by the price-to-rent ratio
series (the sold line) in the same figure. After remaining in a narrow range
between 100 and 120 percent for nearly two decades, the price-to-rent ratio
accelerated rapidly to peak at 186 percent in the first quarter of 2006.
Once the bubble burst, falling prices and poor economic conditions
resulted in steep increases in delinquencies and foreclosures across a broad
spectrum of American homeowners. By the first quarter of 2009, nonperformance
rates among prime borrowers rose nearly threefold relative to
their level in the first quarter of 2005 (from 2.2 to 6.1 percent), while those
for subprime loans spiked to nearly 25 percent, from 10.6 percent four
years earlier. About 1.7 million homes were at some stage of the foreclosure
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Years since housing peak
Current (national)
Great Depression (national)
California 1990
Boston 1989
Real price level compared to peak
Source: S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index; the Great Depression time series from
Shiller (2005).
Figure 4-1
Housing Busts in U.S. History
Stabilizing and Healing the Housing Market | 103
process, and nearly 7 percent of total mortgage debt was seriously delinquent
(more than 90 days past due). Market participants were deeply pessimistic
about the future path for housing prices—the Case-Shiller index
futures contracts traded in January of 2009 suggested that house prices were
expected to fall an additional 10 percent by September 2010 (the dashed line
in Figure 4-3). Other housing futures contracts traded in over-the-counter
markets (not shown) were even more downbeat.
Initial Policy Responses to the Crisis
The broad meltdown in the financial sector called for a series of emergency
responses by the Executive Branch, the Legislative Branch, and the
Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve undertook a series of aggressive monetary
policy actions and launched a number of programs to support liquidity
and lending activity in key financial markets. Congress passed the Housing
and Economic Recovery Act (HERA) in July of 2008, which established the
Federal Housing Finance Agency, the new regulator of the GSEs with greatly
expanded powers. The HERA was followed by the Emergency Economic
Stabilization Act in October of 2008, which established the Troubled Asset
Relief Program.
In one of its first major policy actions, the Obama Administration
implemented the Financial Stability Plan in February 2009. A key part of
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
Mar-91 Mar-94 Mar-97 Mar-00 Mar-03 Mar-06 Mar-09
Sept-11
Mortgage value per home-owning
household ($2010)
(left axis)
Price-to-rent ratio
(right axis)
Dollars
Source: CoreLogic; Department of Labor; Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price
Index.
Figure 4-2
Price-to-Rent Ratio and Mortgage Debt
Price-to-rent ratio
104 | Chapter 4
the plan focused on maintaining the flow of housing credit and helping
responsible homeowners stay in their homes through the Making Home
Affordable (MHA) program. In particular, the Treasury Department made
an increased funding commitment to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which
had been placed in conservatorship six months earlier. The Federal Reserve,
which had previously announced a program to purchase up to $600 billion
of GSE debt and mortgage-backed securities, expanded the planned size of
the program to $1.75 trillion in March 2009. These actions have resulted in
economically meaningful and long-lasting reductions in mortgage interest
rates (Gagnon et al. 2010) and credit availability (Fuster and Willen 2010).
To help responsible households take advantage of these lower rates,
the MHA included the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP), which
was intended to enhance refinancing opportunities for borrowers who had
insufficient equity in their homes. While HARP helped homeowners to hold
onto their homes through more sustainable mortgages, other components
of the MHA focused on restructuring mortgages of borrowers struggling to
stay current on their loans. In particular, the Home Affordable Modification
Program (HAMP) provided a streamlined approach to modification of
delinquent loans and offered monetary incentives and procedural safe harbors
to industry participants. To help communities manage the destruction
caused when the housing market collapsed, the American Recovery and
140
160
180
200
220
240
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Index: Jan 2000 = 100
Source: Case Shiller.
Figure 4-3
S&P/Case-Shiller: January 2009 Expectations of Future House Prices and
Actual Price Index
Housing prices
implied by futures
contracts traded in
January 2009
Actual
Stabilizing and Healing the Housing Market | 105
Reinvestment Act of 2009 (the Recovery Act) provided additional support
to the housing market by extending HUD’s Neighborhood Stabilization
Program, which began under HERA. This program allocated funds to state
and local governments and nonprofit organizations to mitigate foreclosures
and to pursue innovative local approaches to deal with the economic effects
of abandoned properties. The Recovery Act extended the first-time homebuyer
credit established under HERA and increased it to $8,000. This program
was extended further by the Workers, Homeownership, and Business
Assistance Act of 2009.
To date, these initial responses to the housing crisis have assisted
several million households. The most recent housing scorecard released by
the Department of the Treasury and HUD indicated that, as of December
2011, more than 930,000 homeowners had received permanent modifications
under HAMP, putting the program on pace to reach the 1 million
threshold early in 2012. Of equal importance, HAMP provided a template
for major servicers to follow in conducting their own modifications outside
of the program. To date, servicers have undertaken nearly 2.7 million socalled
“proprietary” modifications, many of which would not have occurred
without the standards established by HAMP. The scorecard also highlights
998,000 loans refinanced though HARP, as well as nearly 1.2 million borrowers
helped through various FHA loss mitigation interventions. These
programs have faced challenges from a number of structural problems in
housing markets. These problems include incentive conflicts that arose
when loan servicing was separated from loan ownership in mortgage securitizations,
as well as uncertainty about legal liability in loan origination and
loss mitigation practices. These problems have been greatly exacerbated by
erosion in collateral values, which have increasingly fallen below the value of
associated loans and put more than one in five mortgage borrowers “under
water.” These dramatic declines in collateral necessitate eventual recognition
of economic losses and allocation of such losses to various economic actors.
As policymakers have increasingly focused on addressing these deficiencies,
each of these original MHA programs has undergone substantial modification,
described more fully in the following sections.
Negative Equity: An Unprecedented and Pervasive Problem
As noted, widespread declines in housing prices resulted in more than
a $7 trillion fall in aggregate housing wealth. These losses were borne to at
least some extent by most homeowners. For some homeowners, however,
falling prices not only wiped out their housing wealth in its entirety but also
pushed the value of their homes below the value of outstanding mortgages.
The resulting “negative” equity, which is estimated to total $700 billion, has
106 | Chapter 4
become one of the legacy hallmarks of the housing price bubble. This negative
equity resulted from large home price declines combined with a number
of other factors. According to recent estimates, as many as 10.7 million (or
22 percent of) borrowers are under water. The aggregate negative equity is
unequally distributed across the nation. Six states with the highest incidence
of negative equity—Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, and
Nevada—account for more than half of all underwater borrowers and of the
aggregate amount of negative equity (Figure 4-4). All of these states have
experienced steep declines in house prices.
Negative equity has been associated with a number of problems over
and above those caused by the more widespread loss in housing wealth.
Underwater borrowers find it difficult, if not impossible, to take advantage
of record low interest rates through refinancing, because lenders and
investors are unwilling to take on uncollateralized credit risk. The inability
to refinance prevents households from lowering their monthly mortgage
payments. It also undermines the effectiveness of monetary policy that aims
to lower borrowing costs to businesses and households and thus encourage
greater economic activity. (For more on the decision to refinance, see
Economics Application Box 4-1).
Underwater households have weakened incentives to invest in their
property, since the expected gains from their investment are likely going to
be absorbed by the lender. As a result, underwater households underinvest
Figure 4-4
The Distribution of Underwater Mortgages By State, 2011
Legend
< 10%
10% - 20%
21% - 29%
> 29%
N/A
Source: CoreLogic.
Stabilizing and Healing the Housing Market | 107
in home improvements and maintenance, which leads to the overall decline
in the quality of the nation’s housing stock (Melzer 2010).
Negative equity has also been associated with heightened realized
default rates. Several recent academic and industry studies have found that
the higher their negative equity, the more likely households are to become
delinquent (Bajari, Chu, and Park 2010; Elul et al. 2010). Recent work by
Federal Reserve Board economists (Bhutta, Dokko, and Shan 2010) shows
that a household’s equity position amplifies the effect of unemployment
shocks on default and that this interaction grows in strength with the degree
of negative equity. (For more on data challenges in evaluating the financial
situation of homeowners, see Data Watch 4-1). Household delinquency and
the ensuing foreclosures are very costly, as they disrupt the social fabric of
neighborhoods and cause lenders to engage in an expensive and drawn-out
process of liquidation. Moreover, foreclosures not only lower the value of
the foreclosed property itself; they also have a sizable spillover effect on
valuations of neighboring homes. According f to a recent academic study
(Campbell, Giglio, and Pathak 2011), each foreclosure within a 0.1 mile
radius of a given house lowers its predicted sale price by 7.2 percent.
Negative equity also poses a roadblock for efficient reallocation of
housing resources. Families naturally buy and sell houses over their life
cycle and in response to shocks such as illness or divorce. The necessity to
write a sizable check to the lender upon sale makes it effectively impossible
for liquidity-constrained households to trade their houses without creditimpairing
actions such as delinquency; deed-in-lieu, in which a borrower
returns the property to the lender; or short sale, in which a house is sold for
less than the balance of debts secured by the property. Negative equity also
has the potential to limit underwater borrowers’ ability to pursue employment
opportunities in other geographic areas. The empirical evidence to
date, however, has largely suggested that the adverse effect of negative equity
on labor mobility—the so-called “house lock effect”—is fairly limited.
Macroeconomic Effects of
Housing Market Weakness
The housing sector plays an important role in determining the health
of the broader economy. Two aspects of this relationship are particularly
important—the effect of housing wealth on household consumption and
the direct contribution of residential construction to gross domestic product
(GDP).
108 | Chapter 4
Economics Application Box 4-1: Making a
Decision about Refinancing a Mortgage
Mortgage rates in the United States reached historic lows in 2011,
presenting an opportunity for many homeowners to save money by
refinancing their fixed-rate mortgages. However, refinancing typically
involves a number of costs that push the effective interest rate above the
rates reported in news media. These costs include those associated with
obtaining a new loan, such as title insurance and various administrative
fees; risk-management charges related to loan origination (for example
“points”); underwriting charges for appraisal of the house; and the more
mundane costs of gathering documentation.
How does a homeowner decide whether it is worth paying the
additional costs to reap the benefit of the lower rate? The first step in
evaluating refinancing is to get a clear and comprehensive summary of
costs associated with a new loan; these should be provided by your loan
officer or mortgage broker on a HUD-1 form. While many of these costs
can be rolled into the loan, some have to be paid in cash up front.
The second step is to lay out the stream of all payments required
under the original loan and the new loan used for refinancing. Although
this process may seem involved, it will allow you to take into account
refinancing costs as well as the fact that you will be making payments on
a refinanced mortgage over a longer period than you will have remaining
on the existing mortgage.
Third, those payment streams need to be converted into one
number—the amount of spending today that this stream of payments is
worth. This is known as the net present value or NPV. The net present
value discounts costs paid in the future to reflect the time value of money
and the uncertainty associated with future returns. In the simplest possible
form, it is better to have a dollar today than a dollar tomorrow,
as this dollar can be invested and grow in value by the time, tomorrow
arrives. Hence, all future payments are discounted relative to today’s
outlays. The choice of the discount rate merits a separate discussion that
is beyond the scope of this example. However, some common choices
include discounting at the risk-free rate (commonly approximated by
the 10-year Treasury rate) or the expected rate of return for the stock
market (approximated, say, by the long-term average return on the S&P
500 index). The NPV calculation can be carried out with a spreadsheet
program such as Microsoft Excel or on a number of websites. Once NPV
values are computed for both payment streams, the one with the lower
value is the better choice.
Stabilizing and Healing the Housing Market | 109
The computation and comparison of net present values is the
main idea behind a broad range of online calculators designed to
answer the question of whether refinancing makes sense. An example
can be found on Jack Guttentag’s Mortgage Professor’s Website at
http://www.mtgprofessor.com/calculators/Calculator3a.html. Some
mortgage brokers are fond of making use of simple rules of thumb as
a shortcut for using the NPV approach. For example, they may suggest
that “the new mortgage rate has to be 1 percentage point lower to justify
refinancing with typical closing costs.” Recent estimates of such rule-ofthumb
threshold differences in interest rates have varied between 1 and
1.5 percentage points.
One often overlooked cost of refinancing has not yet been mentioned.
By refinancing today, one generally forgoes the opportunity to
refinance in the future if interest rates were to drop a bit further. Suppose
you determine that refinancing a 5.75 percent loan into a 4.5 percent
loan is advantageous from an NPV standpoint. Then refinancing the
original loan into a 4.25 percent loan would be even more beneficial, but
refinancing from a 4.5 percent loan would not. This difference between
payments at 4.5 percent and 4.25 percent is essentially the value of the
forgone option to delay refinancing. The value of preserving this option
has fluctuated over time, because it clearly depends on the volatility of
interest rates, the economic outlook, and the ability to maintain access
to credit markets-a nontrivial concern for today’s borrowers.
In recent work, Sumit Agarwal, John Driscoll and David Laibson
(2007) calculated the optimal interest rate differential at which to refinance
that explicitly takes into account the aforementioned option value
(these calculations can be found at http://zwicke.nber.org/refinance/).
Take, for example, a family that plans to stay in their house for 10 years,
has a $250,000 mortgage at 6 percent interest rate and has a marginal tax
rate of 28 percent. For this family, assuming an upfront fee of 1 percentage
point of mortgage value (1 point) and cash closing costs of $2,000,
refinancing is optimal if the interest rate on the new mortgage is 4.6
percent or less. Unlike the simple rule of thumb, this calculation takes
into account family expectations of the future inflation rate, interest rate
volatility, and how long they plan to stay in the house—the option value
determinants—which affect the ultimate recommendation.
110 | Chapter 4
Consumption Effects
The standard approach in economics has been to assume that households
consume about the same fraction of the increase in their wealth each
year, regardless of its source. Numerous econometric studies have come up
with a range of estimates that relate changes in household consumption to
changes in wealth (Poterba 2000). Although there is no single agreed-upon
value, the consensus range is fairly narrow—the fraction of each additional
dollar in wealth consumed in a given year (what economists call the marginal
propensity to consume out of wealth, or MPC) is estimated to be
roughly between three and five cents. Applying the lower of these estimates
to the $7.25 trillion in housing wealth losses to date implies consumption
losses of $218 billion a year, or 1.5 percent of GDP. Under standard Okun’s
law assumptions, this GDP impact, in turn, translates into a 0.75 percentage
point increase in the unemployment rate. The severity of losses experienced
during the recession that began in December of 2007 in both national output
and in labor markets makes these estimates appear too small.
One of the possible explanations for this puzzle may be that declines
in housing wealth have a more profound effect on consumption than
equivalent declines in other forms of wealth. Case, Quigley, and Shiller
(2005, 2011) find strong empirical evidence in support of this hypothesis by
exploiting substantial variation across states in house price paths and holdings
of equity assets. In particular, they relate quarterly growth rates in house
prices and equity holdings to quarterly growth rates in state-level retail
sales and find that the consumption response is more sensitive to changes
in housing wealth than to changes in stock market wealth. It is noteworthy
that both the level of the response and the difference between sensitivities to
financial and housing wealth shocks increase substantially once the recent
experience is incorporated in the data (the 2011 study includes data from
2000 through 2010.)
Why would households respond more to housing wealth shocks?
Part of the likely answer has to do with the very different distributions of
ownership of various financial asset classes. Most financial assets other than
liquidity-restricted retirement plans are heavily concentrated at the top of
the wealth distribution. In contrast, holdings of housing assets are much
more uniformly spread across different wealth, income, and demographic
strata. At the peak of the housing market in the third quarter of 2006,
home ownership stood near a record high at 69 percent. Although home
ownership rates among African American and Hispanic households were
noticeably lower (49 percent and 50 percent, respectively), they vastly exceed
ownership rates of all other financial assets other than bank accounts for
these two groups. Perhaps more important, housing assets make up a much
Stabilizing and Healing the Housing Market | 111
Data Watch 4-1: Need for a Comprehensive Source
of Data on Mortgage Debt and Performance
There are currently four basic sources of loan-level data on mortgage
debt: the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) database, data
reported by mortgage servicers, credit bureau data, and public records
data. Each of these sources provides insight about mortgage holdings,
but the existing system is inadequate for measuring the extent and ownership
of financial obligations backed by residential real estate.
The HMDA database contains data required to be publicly
reported for all mortgages. It is useful for measuring long-term
trends in mortgage application volumes and originations, but contains
little information on loan terms or performance following origination.
Further, HMDA data are released only annually with a significant lag.
In contrast, proprietary data sets from loan servicers, such as Lender
Processing Services (LPS) and CoreLogic, have useful information on
loan characteristics and performance but underrepresent certain loan
and investor types. They also have little detail on borrower income or
credit scores following origination and lack information on other debt
obligations, including those collateralized by the same real estate.
The credit bureau data track borrower credit scores and performance
on multiple debt obligations over time, but tell us little about loan
terms and mortgage contract type and nothing about the employment
status and current income of homeowners. Public records contain legal
notices of property-related transactions, such as mortgage origination
and foreclosure, but they contain little information beyond the reason for
creating the record, loan amount, and an associated property identifier.
Linking these data sources to produce a more comprehensive
database is a challenging undertaking, but a pilot version developed by
a team of researchers at Freddie Mac and the Federal Reserve Board
has laid a strong foundation for this effort. A combined database could
make available critical statistics on the health of the housing market. For
example, it could establish a link between first- and second-lien mortgages
on the same property, providing key information on the overall
extent of borrowers’ leverage in different housing markets. This, in turn,
would enable better risk management by first-lien lenders and private
investors, as well as better design and implementation of government
and private-sector loss mitigation programs. In addition, by utilizing
statistical sampling techniques, such a database could correct for known
biases across different data sources. Reliance on sampling also could
reduce operational burden, allowing for more timely reporting.
112 | Chapter 4
larger fraction of wealth among lower income households. Whereas housing
accounted for nearly two-thirds of the overall assets of households in the
bottom half of the wealth distribution in 2007, it constituted only 25 percent
of assets for those in the top decile, and only 10 percent for those in the top
percentile. Shocks to housing wealth not only affect more households than
other wealth shocks; they also apply disproportionately to those at the lower
end of the wealth distribution.
A Pew Research Center report issued in July 2011 provides a stark
illustration of these trends, concentrating on the disparate effects of the burst
housing bubble on the wealth of minority and white households. Because
home equity accounts for a much greater share of household wealth among
minorities—59 percent for African Americans and 65 percent for Hispanics
in 2005, compared with 44 percent for whites—minority households experienced
much greater losses from the housing downturn. These losses were
further compounded by the uneven geographic distribution of house price
declines. As underscored by the Pew report, more than 40 percent of the
nation’s Hispanic households resided in the five states with the steepest price
drops—Arizona, California, Florida, Michigan and Nevada—while only
about one in five of all white and African American households resided in
those states. For Hispanics in those five states, declining home prices have
nearly wiped out household net worth, with median values collapsing from
about $51,000 in 2005 to just $6,000 in 2009.
These trends matter to consumption because empirical research has
pointed out systematic differences in marginal propensities to consume
across income groups. For example, studies that analyzed the consumption
effects of the 2001 and 2008 tax rebates using actual household expenditure
data found that low-income households and those with low liquid wealth
spent considerably higher fractions of these rebates. These effects were identified
in credit card data (Agarwal, Liu, and Souleles 2007), the multiple-category
Consumer Expenditure Survey (Johnson, Parker, and Souleles 2006),
and automobile purchases (Parker et al. 2011). The fact that housing wealth
losses were concentrated among the subset of households most responsive to
such shocks may account in part for the magnitude of the observed declines
in consumption. Indeed, a recent study by Mian, Rao, and Sufi (2011) shows
that households with low levels of nonhousing financial assets experienced
much greater declines in consumption for a given decline in home prices.
A growing economics literature highlights the importance of household
debt balances in influencing the severity of economic slumps. Most
of the growth in household debt between 2002 and 2006 can be traced to
mortgage-related borrowing, which increased by nearly $5 trillion (or 94
percent of the total increase) over this period. As housing values collapsed,
Stabilizing and Healing the Housing Market | 113
many households found their balance sheets tilting heavily toward debt.
Household efforts to bring their balance sheets closer to equilibrium leverage
can potentially proceed along several avenues. Households can default
on their debt obligations. They can accelerate repayment of their debts. Or
they can repair their asset base through more aggressive saving. Collectively,
these approaches are often referred to as deleveraging.
A series of empirical papers attempts to quantify the effect of such
deleveraging on consumption (Mian and Sufi 2010; Mian, Rao, and Sufi
2011). These papers broadly suggest that the levered nature of household
housing assets amplified the effect of pure wealth losses from the crash in
housing prices. The studies compared the consumption response in counties
with different pre-recession levels of household debt and found that counties
with the highest debt levels experienced much larger and longer-lasting
drops in consumption than counties with low debt levels. This finding held
true for consumer durables, such as automobiles, appliances, and furniture,
as well as for consumption of groceries. These counties also exhibit patterns
consistent with deleveraging, as increases in the numbers of defaults, and
debt paybacks by non-defaulters are much higher in high-debt counties
than in low-debt ones. These trends in consumption in turn affect local
employment, particularly in sectors that produce locally consumed goods
and services, such as restaurants and retail establishments (Mian and Sufi
2011). Figure 4-5 illustrates the divergence in employment trends in such
nontradable industry sectors for high- and low-debt counties. In contrast,
the traded goods sectors (not shown) display no such divergence, suggesting
that the run-up in debt and bursting of the housing bubble have caused the
contraction in aggregate demand.
Aside from the consumption effects of debt reduction or increases
in savings needed to deleverage, households with impaired balance sheets
may also have difficulty obtaining credit, which would further affect their
consumption (Hall 2010). Before the crisis, the ability to use home equity as
loan collateral served as an important source of financing for household purchases
of goods and services. For example, Doms, Dunn, and Vine (2008)
find that the increasing ease of tapping home equity credit in the early 2000s
allowed homeowners to use their housing wealth to finance various forms of
consumption. Another example of the pernicious effects of over-leveraging
on access to credit, discussed earlier, is the inability of homeowners with
low or negative equity stakes to refinance into low-interest mortgages.
Moreover, reductions in the collateral value of houses have a negative effect
on the economic recovery by restricting one of the primary channels for
financing startup businesses.
114 | Chapter 4
Residential Construction and Home Ownership Patterns
As discussed in Chapter 2, residential construction in 2011 remained
at very subdued, albeit stable, levels. Starts of new housing units averaged a
little over 600,000, roughly in line with the levels observed in 2009 and 2010.
Housing starts of both single- and multi-family structures remain far below
their peak 2006 levels of 2 million units, weighed down by the cyclical weakness
in demand, the slow pace of household formation, high inventories of
vacant properties for sale, and tight financing conditions for homebuilders.
In addition to cyclical headwinds, residential construction has been
impeded by the need to reallocate the nation’s housing stock from owneroccupied
to rental units, as a growing number of households exited the ranks
of homeowners through foreclosures. Recent research by Federal Reserve
economists analyzes the moving decisions of homeowners who went
through foreclosure between 1999 and 2010 (Molloy and Shan 2011). This
study finds that post-foreclosure households do not tend to move in with
others to defray their living expenses. Rather, the overwhelming majority of
them (76 percent) end up renting single-family housing units.
This evidence suggests that many of the newly foreclosed households
will continue to exhibit strong preference for single-family structures.
However, the conversion of an owner-occupied house to a rental property
takes a certain amount of time, especially if the home is repossessed at the
0.91
0.93
0.95
0.97
0.99
1.01
1.03
1.05
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
High household
debt counties
Low household
debt counties
Indexed: 2007 = 1
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages; Mian and Sufi (2011).
Figure 4-5
Employment Growth: Nontradable Industries
Stabilizing and Healing the Housing Market | 115
conclusion of the foreclosure process. Repossessed homes need to be sold,
often rehabilitated, and then marketed to potential renters. This process is
made all the more difficult by tight credit conditions for financing investment
properties, evidenced by historically high shares of all-cash purchases
and by execution problems in amassing property portfolios necessary to
realize any economies of scale through multiple foreclosure auctions.
In the meantime, prices in rental markets have been trending upward,
pointing to the critical importance of efficient conversion of foreclosed
properties and providing some of the necessary impetus for this process. A
well-functioning mechanism for disposition and conversion of distressed
properties into rental units has the potential to ease the downward pressure
on owner-occupied house prices by removing a part of bank-owned
and shadow inventory of soon-to-be-foreclosed properties from the sales
market. (See the Data Watch 4-2 for discussion of challenges in measuring
home sales.)
Demand for rental housing is likely to grow at a healthy rate over
the next few years, creating an ongoing need to convert existing homes
to rental. First, household formation is poised to accelerate. As numerous
observers have pointed out, household formation slowed dramatically during
the 2007–09 recession and has only recently begun to grow. Data from
the Census Bureau show formation of fewer than 400,000 new households
in both 2009 and 2010, well below the 2002–07 annual average of 1.3 million.
The primary part of this trend is cyclical, deriving both from high
unemployment rates among the young and from a substantial drop-off in
immigration. A 2010 study done for the Mortgage Bankers Association
(Painter 2010) suggests that historically, as economic conditions improved,
individuals who delayed forming households during recession years were
more likely to turn to rental markets to fulfill their housing needs.
Second, credit conditions have tightened considerably in recent years.
Successful mortgage applicants have substantially higher average credit
scores and are required to put up larger down payments than was the case
in the era of rapidly rising house prices. For potential homebuyers who are
unable to put down 20 percent of the purchase price, loans through the
FHA and the U.S. Departments of Veterans Affairs (VA) and Agriculture
have become the primary and, in many cases, only avenues for mortgage
financing—providing a vital counter-cyclical buffer to sustain access to
credit through the crisis. Consequently, the agencies’ market share has risen
rapidly, with the FHA accounting for nearly 40 percent of all house purchase
loans in 2010. Among minority households, in particular, the FHA and
VA loans became the predominant form of financing for home purchase.
Between 2005 and 2010, the share of FHA/VA loans has skyrocketed from
116 | Chapter 4
Data Watch 4-2: Need for a Comprehensive Source
of Data on Home Sales
On December 21, 2011, the National Association of Realtors
(NAR) announced substantial downward revisions going back to 2007
of previously reported data on sales of existing homes. The revisions
reduced the estimated home sale projection for 2011 from nearly 5
million units to 4.25 million units, and reduced the number of reported
home sales between 2007 and 2010 by nearly 3 million units. Although
the implied pace of change in recent home sales was largely unaffected,
lower sales levels caused a reevaluation of housing market conditions,
and, by causing realtor commissions to be revised downward, are
expected to lower the level of GDP.
To a certain extent, revisions to the NAR data are inevitable. The
NAR sales estimates are based on reports from a subset of regional
Multiple Listing Services (MLS). The data from the covered areas must
be weighted to represent the areas that are not covered and adjustments
must be made to this weighting over time. Further, the NAR cannot
directly measure sales transactions conducted outside of Multiple
Listing Services platforms. These “unlisted” transactions may include
houses sold by owners without realtor assistance, sales carried out
by builders, and some foreclosure sales. These sales channels vary in
importance over the housing cycle and across different geographies,
something that can be difficult to capture accurately on a current basis.
NAR revisions also reflect the fragmented nature of local MLS
systems and their evolution over time. Historically, many metropolitan
regions were represented by several MLS databases. The NAR obtained
actual sales data from a subset of these databases and adjusted the numbers
to account for sales recorded in the remainder. MLS systems have
undergone considerable recent consolidation. As NAR adjustments
lagged consolidation of MLS systems, reported sales were being grossed
up by outdated factors and thus were systematically overstated.
Since all property sales are publicly documented by local deed
registration systems, it theoretically should be feasible to use these
records to estimate sales volumes across all jurisdictions and all channels,
and with minimal time delay. The main hurdle to constructing a
comprehensive national data source for real estate transactions will be
to integrate data across disjointed and dissimilar county-level recording
systems. Such data, however, would represent a reliable and timely
source of information on sales activity—useful information for macroeconomic
forecasters and an important gauge of health in the nation’s
housing markets.
Stabilizing and Healing the Housing Market | 117
15 percent to 80 percent of all purchase mortgages originated to African-
American households and from 8 percent to 75 percent of all purchase
mortgages originated to Hispanic households. During the past three years, at
least 60 percent of all first-time home buyers financed their purchases with
FHA or VA loans. Young households surveyed by Fannie Mae repeatedly
cite an insufficiently strong “credit history” and “not having enough for a
down payment” as two of the biggest obstacles to homeownership.
Third, younger households that just experienced a historic decline
in housing prices may be less optimistic about homeownership. Recent
research (Malmendier and Nagel 2011) showed that households coming of
age during periods of sizable declines in the equity market stayed away from
equity ownership in the future. For such households, a longer lifetime perspective
could not offset the dramatic price declines experienced early in life,
which thus tended to have a strong and long-lasting influence on subsequent
economic behavior. It is premature to say whether a similar “Depression
babies” effect is applicable to today’s young renters. The scant survey evidence
available on this question is mixed. On one hand, the Fannie Mae
surveys indicate that the majority of young households continue to regard
housing as a good financial investment and homeownership as a desirable
goal. On the other hand, a series of special supplements to the Michigan
Survey of Consumer Sentiment suggest that younger households hold more
pessimistic views of homeownership, although this result is limited to a
subset of responders with personal knowledge of someone who experienced
foreclosure or substantial home price declines (Bracha and Jamison 2011).
In sum, the weakness in the housing sector continues to weigh heavily
on macroeconomic performance. The enormity of losses in housing wealth
and the uneven distribution of those losses in the population, along with
the substantial weakening of household balance sheets burdened by debt
overhang, have an outsized effect on consumption. High unresolved inventories
of distressed properties, along with a concurrent need for large-scale
rebalancing of the housing stock, contribute to ongoing difficulties in the
residential construction sector.
These challenges are compounded by several structural problems in
housing markets that have been exposed by the crisis. Understanding and
addressing these institutional frictions represents a necessary step in formulating
appropriate policy actions.
Structural Problems in Housing Market
The shock to the housing market laid bare serious deficiencies in the
existing infrastructure for servicing delinquent mortgage loans, liquidating
118 | Chapter 4
foreclosed properties, and adjudicating legal disputes between various parties.
These deficiencies have impaired the effectiveness of loss mitigation
efforts and may also be affecting borrowers’ ability to access mortgage credit.
Adjudicating Legal Disputes
Rapid growth in the volume and complexity of securitized mortgage
credit during the bubble years outpaced developments in case law adjudicating
legal liability for representations and warranties associated with loan
underwriting. The resulting legal uncertainty has the potential to impede
origination of new mortgage credit if it unnecessarily adds to lender liability
vis-à-vis mortgage investors.
During the standard loan origination process an underwriter provides
legally binding representations and warranties (R&W) backing the veracity
of collected information. Representations and warranties encompass such
crucial elements of the loan application as borrower income, available assets,
and the appraised value of the house. Within a specified period of time
following securitization, an agent of the investors (the Trustee) conducts
a postsale audit of loan documentation. If the Trustee finds R&W violations
on a particular loan, the originator is obligated to buy back that loan
from the securitized pool. A similar audit may be conducted in the event of
mortgage default, when the discovery of R&W violations on defaulted loans
would also result in the investor “putting back” the loan to the originator.
These put-back rights create a liability for originators that is designed to
serve an important quality control function: the originator must bear the
risk of loss on defaulted loans with R&W violations.
As the number of intermediaries between the underwriter and loan
investor grew, the transmission of this liability by each party along the chain
became less well understood, and quality control standards became more
difficult to enforce. For example, many financial institutions increasingly
relied on independent mortgage brokers to carry out customer prospecting
and loan underwriting, especially in urban and minority-dominated
neighborhoods that have been historically underserved by traditional lenders.
Because mortgage brokers did not have sufficient capital to originate
and hold a substantial number of loans, they quickly sold their mortgages
to a larger financial institution, which, in turn, would securitize the resulting
loan portfolio in broader capital markets. In effect, mortgage brokers
functioned as independent contractors for banks that would eventually
securitize these loans. In a twist on a common description of mortgage
securitization, “originate-to-distribute,” this business model was labeled as
“outsource-to-originate-to-distribute.”
Stabilizing and Healing the Housing Market | 119
In theory, established financial institutions that securitized loans
had ample incentives to exercise due diligence. They retained liability for
representations and warranties, and carried reputational risk, as well as the
risk that they might not be able to pass faulty loans back to the originating
mortgage brokers. Yet, there is empirical evidence that at least some
banks actively securitized loans originated by mortgage brokers with little
or no documentation—the so-called “l(fā)iar” loans that can be easily falsified
(Jiang, Nelson, and Vytlacil 2011). The lengthening of the chain of financial
intermediaries made the evaluation and assignment of liability for faulty
underwriting processes considerably more complicated.
The complexity of the claims, and the sheer number of lawsuits that
are being litigated on a loan-by-loan basis, suggest that court resolution will
take considerable time, which poses a challenge to stabilizing the housing
market and accelerating a recovery.
Incentive Conflicts
Before securitization became prevalent, the majority of mortgages
was funded directly by banks and other deposit-taking financial institutions.
These loans were held on lenders’ own balance sheets and were typically
serviced by them as well. Securitization of mortgage credit either through
GSEs or private label issuers allowed the expansion of funding to broader
capital markets. As a result, bank-funded (or portfolio) mortgages became
less prevalent, ceding ground to GSE and private-label securitizations (PLS).
By 2007, the share of aggregate residential mortgage debt held on portfolio
had fallen to 37 percent from 48 percent in 1992, while that held by the
PLS investors nearly quadrupled to 19 percent over the same time period.
Investors in mortgage-backed securities relied on third-party servicers to
collect monthly payments, transmit those payments to various investor
classes, and mitigate losses on nonperforming mortgages.
The separation of mortgage ownership and servicing gave rise to a
number of incentive conflicts between loan investors and their servicers,
which made problem mortgages more difficult
to address. These relationships
are generally governed by “pooling and servicing agreements” (PSAs)
that specify permissible actions servicers may take in dealing with delinquent
loans. Although the overriding PSA principle is maximization of the value
of the loan pool, some litigation was necessary to clarify this principle. Even
now that the principle has been established, it can be interpreted in several
different ways, particularly for mortgage pools with multiple investor classes
or tranches. In particular, junior investors that are second in line (or lower)
to receive flows generated by mortgage pools have an incentive to legally
challenge modification actions that curtail overall cash flows. The resulting
120 | Chapter 4
internecine “tranche warfare” discourages servicer actions. Indeed, some
observers have argued that servicers tailor their loss mitigation practices to
minimize the risk of litigation by their investors. Because loan modification
is an expensive and uncertain undertaking, servicers may have an incentive
to pursue foreclosures as the least legally contentious option. Indeed, recent
research found evidence of considerably lower likelihood of modifications
for privately securitized mortgages than for portfolio-held loans where no
conflicts of interest are present (Piskorski, Seru, and Vig 2010; Agarwal et
al. 2011).
Moreover, because servicer compensation is based on the unpaid
principal balance of performing loans, their incentives are skewed toward
modification practices that favor reductions in interest rates and adding
unpaid loan balances (or arrears) to the principal, even when that is not
the most effective approach to ensuring long-term performance of the loan.
These incentive conflicts, coupled with the absence of established legal precedent,
effectively limited early modification efforts on securitized mortgages
to three alternatives: adding arrears to principal and either lowering the
interest rate or freezing it on adjustable-rate mortgages (Agarwal et al. 2011).
The unveiling of the Home Affordable Modification Program in
early 2009 substantially changed the playing field for loan modifications.
By establishing a standardized approach to modifying mortgage contracts
that explicitly maximized the return to investors as a group, the program
reduced the exposure of servicers performing such modifications to investor
lawsuits. The HAMP standards have served as a catalyst for spurring rapid
growth in mortgage modification efforts across the industry. As servicers
built up their distressed loan infrastructure to accommodate HAMP, they
also switched their own modification focus to more aggressive methods that
emphasize loan affordability.
Policy Actions
Both the complexity of the existing challenges in the housing market
and the importance to the broader economy of resolving these challenges
call for a robust and multifaceted menu of policy actions. Over the past three
years, the Administration’s housing policy has continued to expand to fit the
circumstances, building on the experience of the early responses to the crisis.
The Administration is pursuing additional innovative approaches designed
to help households refinance their mortgages and maintain access to credit,
to avoid unnecessary and costly foreclosures, to stabilize housing prices, and
to help communities rebuild after experiencing a wave of foreclosures and
erosion in property values.
Stabilizing and Healing the Housing Market | 121
Building on the Experience of Existing Programs
A number of program modifications are focused on counteracting
the corrosive effects of negative equity. These modifications also seek to
overcome a set of institutional hurdles that have thus far limited the effectiveness
of certain policy actions. In particular, the Administration worked
with the Federal Housing Finance Agency and private market participants to
improve HARP—the existing refinancing program for borrowers with insufficient
or negative equity in their homes whose mortgages are guaranteed by
Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. The revised program guidelines announced in
November 2011 expand the pool of eligible borrowers by removing limits
on loan-to-value ratios and extending the program deadline until December
2013. The program also lowers refinancing costs by reducing unnecessary
pricing overlays and negotiating favorable pricing on some of the major
closing cost items, such as title insurance. The revised HARP also addresses
some of the difficult institutional hurdles, such as coordination problems
with second-lien holders and mortgage insurers. The changes also lower
some of the representation and warranty requirements for existing loan
servicers, thereby encouraging greater lender participation. In a bid to further
increase use of HARP, the revised program allows servicers to solicit
some potentially eligible borrowers directly. Furthermore, major lenders
have committed to dedicate additional origination capacity and resources to
refinancing HARP borrowers.
Whereas changes in HARP were aimed at dulling the adverse effects
of negative equity on the ability of currently performing borrowers to
refinance their loans, other HAMP initiatives tackled the issues posed by
negative equity in modifying loans of delinquent borrowers. In particular,
the Principal Reduction Alternative (PRA), announced in October 2010,
augments the original HAMP focus on affordability with elimination of a
portion of the mortgage balance. The PRA builds on the insight that high
levels of negative equity contribute to mortgage default over and above the
effects of loan affordability. Consequently, modifications of delinquent loans
with high loan-to-value (LTV) ratios may be more effective if they include
a principal reduction component. The PRA requires servicers of non-GSE
loans to evaluate the benefit of principal reduction for loans that exceed the
appraised value of the house by 15 percent or more (that is, have LTV ratios
above 115 percent) in making their HAMP determinations. To encourage
servicers to use the PRA, HAMP provides monetary incentives for investors
to write down principal. At the same time, the PRA seeks to lessen the risk
of moral hazard by implementing principal write-down in three annual
installments and making it conditional on continuous performance of the
122 | Chapter 4
modified mortgage. Under this earned principal reduction structure, a
borrower has a strong incentive to remain current, which enhances the net
present value of the PRA modifications to investors. To further encourage
investors to evaluate the use of principal reduction in modifying problem
loans, the Treasury has recently announced a tripling of the PRA monetary
incentives. The Treasury also offered to extend PRA incentives to Fannie
Mae- and Freddie Mac-insured loans.
The pace of PRA modifications has picked up appreciably in the past
few months, with more than one in four HAMP modifications receiving
principal reductions. According to the latest Treasury report, more than
36,000 permanent modifications that include principal reduction had been
implemented by the end of November 2011 (Department of the Treasury
2011). The median PRA loan had an LTV ratio of 158 percent before modification
and a target ratio after modification of 115 percent. The median
amount of principal forgiveness for active permanent PRA modifications
was about $66,000. Because servicers are not required to offer principal
reduction and usually may do so only when permitted by the loan investor,
the growing use of the program suggests increasing acceptance of principal
reduction as an effective loss mitigation tool by private investors.
Similar acceptance is echoed in servicer actions on private, non-
HAMP, modifications. Several servicers have shifted their focus to principal
reduction for deeply underwater delinquent loans held in securitization
trusts. These reductions are typically earned over time to encourage borrowers
to maintain loan performance. Principal reductions are also often
coupled with a shared appreciation component that exchanges forgiven
principal for an equity stake in the property. If the market value of the house
in a future sale or refinancing exceeds its value at the time of principal reduction,
the borrower shares a part of the appreciation with the lender. Much
like the earned principal reduction, shared appreciation effectively raises the
borrower’s costs of defaulting to qualify for principal forgiveness.
Another HAMP-related initiative recently announced by the
Department of the Treasury expands the reach of the program by broadening
eligibility. One of the reasons many borrowers have not been able to take
advantage of the program is that eligibility was tied to first-lien mortgages.
Some borrowers with high medical debts, for example, but relatively average
mortgage burdens, did not previously qualify for the program. By expanding
eligibility, the changes aim to extend loan modifications to such borrowers
and lower the number of preventable foreclosures.
The Administration has also expanded housing assistance for unemployed
or underemployed homeowners. To help out-of-work homeowners
avoid foreclosure, these programs generally provide for a period of
Stabilizing and Healing the Housing Market | 123
forbearance of all or part of the monthly mortgage payment. In July of 2011,
as the length of unemployment spells continued to exceed forbearance periods
for many of the unemployed homeowners, the FHA and the Treasury
announced the extension of forbearance to 12 months. This change applies
to mortgage servicers that participate in the HAMP’s unemployment initiative
program (HAMP UP), as well as to the FHA Special Forbearance program.
Following the Administration’s lead, two major lenders and the GSEs
have recently announced their commitment to provide up to 12 months of
mortgage payment forbearance to unemployed borrowers.
Mortgage payment assistance for unemployed or underemployed
homeowners has become a prominent feature of state level programs developed
under the Hardest Hit Fund (HHF). The President announced the
establishment of the Fund in February 2010 to provide targeted aid to families
in states that have been hit hard by the economic and housing market
downturn. HHF currently provides assistance to homeowners in 18 states
and the District of Columbia. The specific programs are designed by state
housing finance agencies and take into account local market conditions.
In addition to helping unemployed borrowers, HHF programs commonly
include efforts to fund innovative approaches to modification of delinquent
mortgages and to allow homeowners to transition into more affordable
places of residence.
Furthermore, in June of 2011 HUD launched the Emergency
Homeowners Loan Program (EHLP) which provided $1 billion in interestfree
loans to help keep borrowers in non-HHF states who are unemployed,
or who suffer from a severe medical condition, from losing their homes. The
EHLP is available to borrowers with a long track record of staying current
on their mortgages but who find their ability to continue doing so compromised
by job loss or illness. EHLP loans are secured by a junior lien note
on the homeowner’s principal residence, and the balance on these loans is
forgiven in 20 percent increments for each year the borrower remains current
on regular mortgage payments.
The Administration’s Project Rebuild, introduced as part of the
American Jobs Act in September 2011, is another example of building on
the experience of existing housing programs. While the revised HARP and
the HAMP PRA focus on negative equity, Project Rebuild addresses the
damaging effects of foreclosed or abandoned homes on neighborhood property
values, economic prospects, and social fabric. Project Rebuild seeks to
integrate and expand strategies proven successful under the Neighborhood
Stabilization Program to deal with vacant and foreclosed properties. In
particular, it explicitly allows federal funding to support for-profit development
subject to HUD oversight. It also extends rehabilitation efforts to
124 | Chapter 4
commercial as well as residential properties. Project Rebuild further calls
for expanding support for land banks that work at the local level to acquire,
hold, and redevelop distressed properties. Federal funds granted under the
project would provide land banks with capital infusions that can be leveraged
with private-sector investments to finance long-term redevelopment
strategies.
New Levers in Housing Policy
Refinancing. The Administration has called on Congress to pass legislation
that will enable more homeowners to refinance their mortgages at
today’s historically low interest rates. First, the HARP program is available
only to homeowners whose loans are owned or guaranteed by the GSEs.
This restriction has left some borrowers unable to refinance their loans only
because their mortgages were kept on the originating bank’s books or were
securitized in the private, as opposed to the GSE, market—events largely
outside of a borrower’s control. To remove this arbitrary distinction, the
Administration proposes that the FHA be authorized to offer streamlined
refinancing to non-GSE borrowers with standard mortgage contracts. To
limit risks to the taxpayers, the proposal emulates HARP in requiring eligible
borrowers to have remained current on their mortgages and to meet
certain underwriting standards. Another risk-management component of
the proposal includes capping the loan-to-value ratio of eligible loans.
Second, while enhancements to HARP announced in November of
2011 will increase the reach of the program, more can be done to reduce
the barriers to refinancing of GSE-backed loans. Such steps would include
harmonizing underwriting requirements for mortgages with LTV ratios
below and above 80 percent; further reducing loan fees because GSEs do
not acquire any new credit risk by refinancing these loans; fully aligning
the treatment of representations and warranties for refinancing with the
existing or new mortgage servicers; and removing remaining differences in
HARP requirements that still exist between Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
These changes are aimed at streamlining the operational requirements of
the HARP program and making it more accessible to a greater number of
borrowers. By leveling the playing field between existing and new servicers,
the proposed changes also seek to harness competitive forces to bring more
interest savings to borrowers.
Third, the Administration’s proposal helps address the problem of
negative equity by providing a pathway for responsible homeowners who
refinance their mortgages to rebuild their equity more quickly. Under this
option, home owners would refinance into a shorter-maturity (20-year, for
example) mortgage and commit to deploying the savings from refinancing
Stabilizing and Healing the Housing Market | 125
to rebuilding equity in their homes. As an example, consider a borrower who
has a 6.5 percent mortgage originated in 2006 with an outstanding balance
of $200,000, whose house is worth $160,000 (a loan-to-value ratio of 125).
This borrower could lower the monthly payment by $166 by refinancing
into a 20-year mortgage at 3.75 percent. Should the borrower choose to keep
their mortgage payment at its original level and direct the $166 in savings
to principal reduction, the outstanding mortgage balance would decline to
$152,000 in five years. Under the proposal, underwater borrowers would
have the choice of pursuing this pathway to rebuild their home equity. To
assist borrowers who make this choice, the proposal directs the GSEs and the
FHA to cover the closing costs of their refinanced loans.
Servicing standards. The experience of the past few years showed
that the Nation is not well served by the patchwork of rules that govern the
mortgage servicing system. To improve accountability and align incentives
in the mortgage servicing industry, the Administration recently released a
unified framework of servicing standards—the Homeowner Bill of Rights—
that is designed to better serve borrowers, investors, and the overall housing
market. The Administration will work closely with the Consumer Financial
Protection Bureau (CFPB) and other independent regulators, Congress,
and other stakeholders to create a more robust and comprehensive set of
rules driven by a set of core principles outlined in the framework. These
principles include full disclosure of all fees provided in understandable
language upfront, with any changes disclosed before they go into effect. The
framework also requires servicers to implement standards and practices
that minimize conflicts of interest, such as those that exist between multiple
investor classes and those that arise when the servicer simultaneously owns
a secondary lien on the property. To make loss mitigation actions more
timely and effective, servicers are required to contact homeowners who
have demonstrated hardship or fallen delinquent, and provide them with
a comprehensive set of options to avoid foreclosure. Servicers must further
allow homeowners the right to appeal denials for mortgage modification to
an independent third party and provide homeowners who find themselves
in economic distress with access to a customer service employee with a
complete record of previous communications with that homeowner. To
minimize inappropriate foreclosure actions, servicers may schedule a foreclosure
sale only after they have certified in writing that all loss mitigation
alternatives have been considered. To ensure compliance, servicers must
maintain strong controls over servicing and loss mitigation operations and
subject these controls to periodic independent audits. The Homeowner Bill
of Rights is meant to provide an enforceable set of rules, not just guidance,
for the servicing industry.
126 | Chapter 4
Conversion of Repossessed Properties into Re,ntal Units. An orderly,
fair process for disposition of foreclosed properties remains a key objective
of housing policy. Given the ongoing reduction in rates of homeownership,
many foreclosed properties will have to be converted to rental units,
a process that typically involves rehabilitation. The demand for this type
of housing stock will come mainly from private investors whose activity to
date has been hampered by execution problems in putting together property
portfolios through a series of small-scale acquisitions. Tight credit conditions
for financing investment properties have further limited the ability of
private investors to fill the gap in demand.
To counteract these problems, the FHFA, with the Departments of
Treasury and Housing and Urban Development, initiated a process to manage
the sale of REO properties held by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the
FHA. The goal of this effort is to allow private investors to bid on acquiring
pools of REO properties in exchange for a commitment to rehabilitate and
manage the properties as rental units. Bulk purchases will make it easier for
investors to achieve economies of scale as they implement their individual
business strategies. Qualified bidders must demonstrate evidence of property
management experience and adequate capital resources, as well as agree
to abide by property usage restrictions. For instance, antiflipping provisions
establish minimum time periods that an investor must hold the property
before seeking to sell it, and minimum reinvestment requirements impose
certain quality standards for rented properties.
In many ways, the REO-to-rental conversion program seeks to build
on the best practices established by successful policy interventions during
the crisis. The program focuses on leveraging the expertise and financial
resources of private investors, while preserving value for the taxpayers. It
looks to avoid rigid top-down solutions, allowing for customization at the
local level. And it makes use of the unique position of the GSEs and FHA as
owners of large nationwide inventories of distressed properties to provide
a large-scale, transparent, and predictable mechanism for converting these
properties to better suit local housing demands. Furthermore, the process is
intended to help the industry develop a viable framework for acquiring and
managing large-scale scattered-site rental portfolios. Similar to the HAMP
experience, this framework may well help establish industry standards.
Conclusion
Developments in the housing market played a central role in the financial
crisis and the ensuing recession, and they continue to present a headwind
for the economic recovery. Although housing markets are stabilizing
Stabilizing and Healing the Housing Market | 127
in many regions, the healing process will inevitably take time. This is a
reflection of both the magnitude of the recent housing price collapse and
the many institutional obstacles on the path to a new equilibrium. Getting
to the end of this path will require unwinding accumulated inventories of
foreclosed homes, whether by finding new owners or by converting them
to rental units. It will require enabling more homeowners to refinance their
mortgages at today’s low interest rates. It will require resolving multiple
conflicts of interest in the modification of delinquent loans and providing
meaningful assistance to unemployed homeowners as they search for new
jobs that would allow them to remain in their homes. It will require restoring
access to credit for responsible borrowers and repairing household balance
sheets hard hit by erosion of home equity. And it will require working out
legal uncertainties and fixing up mortgage finance markets.
Instead of waiting for these processes to play themselves out slowly
and painfully, the Administration has embarked on a series of multifaceted
and fiscally responsible actions in partnership with private market participants
and housing regulators to proactively repair the housing market and
ease the transition to a new and stable equilibrium. The new policy initiatives
seek to enable refinancing, to unlock access to credit for responsible
underwater homeowners, to reallocate foreclosed properties to the rental
market, to prevent unnecessary foreclosures for borrowers struggling with
temporary loss of income, to implement sustainable modifications of delinquent
loans, and to repair the frayed infrastructure of mortgage servicing
and mortgage finance.
129
C H A P T E R 5
INTERNATIONAL TRADE
AND FINANCE
Over the past year, global economic growth has slowed, largely due to a
range of challenges in the advanced economies. These adverse shocks
are, for the most part, unrelated to policies or business decisions undertaken
within the borders of the United States. Nevertheless, in an integrated global
economy, the United States cannot fully escape their impact.
One could hardly begin with a starker example of an adverse shock
to the world economy than the massive earthquake that struck Japan’s
northeastern coast on March 11. This earthquake was the most powerful
to have hit Japan in recorded history, triggering tsunami waves that leveled
towns and claimed nearly 16,000 lives. Alongside the devastating human
toll, the disaster also had a major impact on the Japanese economy. The
International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that the Japanese economy
contracted by 0.9 percent in 2011. The economic impact also extended far
beyond Japan’s borders. For months afterward, supply chains around the
world, especially in the automotive industry, were disrupted by production
slowdowns and parts shortages.
While Japan’s severe economic slowdown in 2011 was driven by
a natural disaster, those elsewhere in the developed world were largely a
product of forces outside of nature. Slow growth has exacerbated sovereign
debt and deficit problems in Europe, and austerity measures put into place
in response have impeded near-term growth in a number of euro-area
countries. In January, the IMF reported that the euro area’s gross domestic
product (GDP) grew 1.6 percent in 2011, down from 1.9 percent in 2010,
and predicted that the euro area would contract by 0.5 percent in 2012.
Growth in the United Kingdom has also slowed significantly, in part reflecting
tight fiscal policies, and is estimated by the IMF to have been only 0.9
percent in 2011. With the European Union, Japan, and the United States
collectively accounting for almost 60 percent of global GDP, slower growth
130 | Chapter 5
in these economies was sufficient to lower growth at the global level in 2011,
as Figure 5-1 illustrates.
In the face of the broad-based slowdown in economic growth in the
developed economies, growth in emerging markets also decelerated.1 Slower
growth in import demand in the large economies meant slower export
growth in emerging markets.2 For example, growth in China is decelerating
because of a decline in export growth as well as a slowdown in domestic real
estate investment. Although the IMF predicts China is likely to grow more
than 8 percent in 2012, its slowdown contributes to the loss of momentum
in global growth.
1 The growth slowdown in some emerging markets also reflected the impact of policy
tightening in some countries to prevent overheating. As the year progressed, concerns about
overheating tended to give way to concerns about the economic slowdown in the developed
countries.
2 The emerging markets aggregate in Figure 5-1 includes Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China,
Colombia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Israel, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Russia, Singapore,
South Africa, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine, and Venezuela. Seventeen
member states of the European Union (the EU-27) use the euro. They are Austria, Belgium,
Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Malta,
Netherlands, Portugal, the Slovak Republic, Slovenia, and Spain.
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2002:Q1 2004:Q1 2006:Q1 2008:Q1 2010:Q1
Annualized quarterly percent change
Figure 5-1
Real GDP Growth, 2000–2011
2011:Q3
United States,
European Union,
and Japan
Emerging
markets
Note: Weights come from each nation’s share of GDP within each aggregate.
Source: Country sources; International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook,
September 2011; CEA calculations.
International Trade and Finance | 131
Viewed in the context of these external challenges, the growth of U.S.
exports over the past year has been a particular bright spot. Despite a slowing
global economy, America’s exports of goods and services have surpassed
their pre-crisis peaks and have been growing more than fast enough to meet
the President’s goal of doubling the 2009 export level by the end of 2014.
Many factors are contributing to this fast pace of growth, including continued
productivity growth in manufacturing, a shift in unit labor costs that
favors U.S. businesses over those in other advanced countries, and technological
innovation in the energy sector, which is improving America’s trade
balance in petroleum products. A possible further weakening of foreign
demand conditions, however, could pose a risk to future U.S. export growth.
Global economic events could also affect the U.S. economy through
financial links between the United States and the rest of the world. These
links have increased dramatically in recent decades. U.S.-owned assets
abroad and foreign-owned assets in the United States increased more than
six-fold between 1994 and 2010.
“Global rebalancing” has been a major theme of U.S. international
economic policy since the beginning of the Obama Administration. In the
years before the global financial crisis erupted in 2008, large asymmetries had
developed in the global economy. Several countries characterized by large,
persistent current account surpluses, including Germany, Japan, and China,
relied too heavily on unsustainable growth in net exports to drive economic
growth. Several other countries characterized by large, persistent current
account deficits, including the United States, relied on unsustainable growth
in household consumption and construction of residential real estate. A
more symmetric, better balanced pattern of growth is needed throughout
the major economies. In the United States, future growth must be driven
less by consumption and more by net exports and investment. Conversely,
countries that have traditionally run large current account surpluses need
to rely more on domestic consumption and less heavily on net exports. So
far, the United States has made significant progress toward rebalancing.
For progress to continue, however, U.S. exports must grow even more, and
consumption in the surplus countries must increase.
The Euro-Area Crisis and Its
Implications for the United States
A key potential risk in 2012 to the U.S. and global economic recoveries
remains the sovereign-debt and banking crises in Europe. Economic and
fiscal conditions vary greatly among the 17 economies in the euro area, as
illustrated in Figure 5-2. Although there is significant heterogeneity among
132 | Chapter 5
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Estonia
Slovak Republic
Finland
Austria
Belgium
Ireland
Netherlands
Germany
France
Spain
Portugal
Italy
Greece
2000–2007 average
2012 projection
Note: Projections include revisions as of January 2012.
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, September 2011.
a. GDP Growth (Percent)
0 50 100 150 200
Greece
Italy
Ireland
Portugal
Belgium
France
Germany
Austria
Spain
Netherlands
Finland
Slovak Republic
Estonia
2000–2007 average
2012 projection
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, September 2011.
b. Public Debt–GDP Ratio (Percent)
Figure 5-2
Economic and Fiscal Indicators for Selected Euro-Area Countries
International Trade and Finance | 133
euro-area economies, economic and fiscal conditions in most of them
deteriorated throughout 2011. In 2012, the economies of Estonia, Finland,
and the Slovak Republic are predicted to grow by more than 2 percent, but
those in Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain are predicted to shrink by more
than 1.5 percent. Similarly, the ratio of general government gross debt to
GDP is projected to be roughly 70 percent or below in Estonia, Finland,
the Netherlands, the Slovak Republic, and Spain and above 110 percent in
Greece, Ireland, Italy, and Portugal.
Economic research shows that there are many determinants of sovereign
credit risk or sovereign borrowing costs, including individual factors
(Berg and Sachs 1988) and global financial factors (Eichengreen and Mody
2000; Longstaff et al. 2011). Since early 2010, both sets of factors raised borrowing
costs for some smaller and a few larger economies in the euro area.
The European Commission (EC) and the IMF negotiated assistance programs
for Ireland (November 2010), Portugal (May 2011), and Greece (May
2010, July 2011, and October 2011). In October 2011, the sovereign-debt
crisis intensified in Italy and Spain, the third- and fourth-largest economies
in the euro area.3
In response to the marked increase in sovereign borrowing costs, the
European Central Bank (ECB) intervened, resuming its Securities Markets
Program, in an effort designed to lower sovereign bond yields by purchasing
government debt in secondary markets. European leaders and institutions
have also introduced and expanded various measures to inhibit contagion,
such as the European Financial Stability Facility. While these measures have
helped contain the sovereign-debt crisis in Europe, significant risks remain.
Market participants are expressing ongoing concerns about the fiscal conditions
of Italy and Spain, as well as Greece and Portugal, in part because of
fears that economic growth in these countries is likely to be sluggish for a
prolonged period, exacerbating their fiscal situation.
European banks are among the largest holders of European government
debt. (See Financial Stability Oversight Council 2011 for a discussion
of the interconnections between U.S. banks, European banks, and European
government debt.) As concerns about sovereign debt rose, spreads widened
on sovereign bond yields relative to German bond yields in June 2011 (as
highlighted in Figure 5-3), leading to deteriorating conditions of both solvency
and liquidity among European banks. Toward the end of 2011, many
European banks were facing shortened maturities and higher costs of funding
in the interbank market, an important source of bank liquidity.
In December 2011, after two successive cuts in interest rates, the ECB
took major steps to provide increased liquidity to euro-area banks. Among
3 Assistance programs for Greece negotiated in 2011 have not yet been implemented.
134 | Chapter 5
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
2,400
2,800
3,200
3,600
Jan-2010 Jul-2010 Jan-2011 Jul-2011 Jan-2012
Jan. 31
Basis points
Source: Bloomberg.
a. Greece and Portugal
Greece
Portugal
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Jan-2010 Jul-2010 Jan-2011 Jul-2011 Jan-2012
Italy
Spain
Belgium
France
Jan. 31
Basis points
Source: Bloomberg.
b. Italy, Spain, Belgium, and France
Figure 5-3
10-Year Bond Spreads Over German Bonds, 2010–2012
International Trade and Finance | 135
other measures, the ECB’s new longer-term refinancing operation extended
the maturity of loans offered to banks from one year to three years, and the
ECB eased collateral requirements for those loans. The Federal Reserve also
extended and reduced the cost of dollar liquidity swap arrangements to the
ECB, as it had done during the credit freeze of 2008–09. A currency liquidity
swap is an agreement between two or more parties to exchange a set amount
of a given currency for another currency at a given price until a specific date
in the future. In this case, the Federal Reserve provides dollars for periods
ranging from overnight to as long as three months in exchange for the currency
of the foreign central bank. In turn, the foreign central bank can lend
the dollars during the specified period in its local markets, helping to relieve
funding pressures in those markets and to prevent the spread of strains to
markets elsewhere.
Given the interconnectedness of European and U.S. banks and the
presence of branches, agencies, and subsidiaries of European banks in the
United States, adverse financial conditions in Europe can be transmitted
to American financial institutions. According to the Federal Reserve’s
Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, several European branches tightened
standards on commercial and industrial (C&I) loans over the second half
of 2011, in contrast to U.S. and other foreign banks. The C&I loans on
the books of European branches in the United States have in fact declined
noticeably since the middle of 2011. Such financial data are being monitored
closely. One of the goals of recent financial oversight embedded in the
Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act is to reduce
systemic risk by increasing transparency. Among other things, the new law
supports trading of financial instruments on central exchanges, including
derivatives. (For a discussion of the role of the Office of Financial Research
in fostering transparency, see Data Watch 5-1.)
Similarly, trade and investment links between the United States and
Europe are broad and deep, and, in recent years, of growing importance
relative to the rest of the world. Europe is a significant destination for U.S.
exports, accounting for more than 20 percent of U.S. goods exports and
nearly 40 percent of U.S. service exports. In addition, sales by European
affiliates of U.S. multinational firms totaled $3.1 trillion in 2008, making up
more than half of the $6.1 trillion in total sales abroad by U.S. multinational
firms. Furthermore, Europe is the leading foreign source of investment and
jobs in America, accounting for $173.2 billion, or 76 percent, of all foreign
direct investment (FDI) inflows into the United States in 2010.
136 | Chapter 5
Data Watch 5-1: The Significance of the Office of Financial Research
(OFR) in Combating Global Risks to the U.S. Financial System
The recent financial crisis presented a stark example of the need for
comprehensive data on the financial system. While the initial catalyst for
the financial crisis was a decline in U.S. housing prices that in 2007 led
to a dramatic rise in subprime mortgage defaults (Brunnermeier 2009),
neither market participants nor policymakers were aware of the extent
to which leverage, reliance on ultra-cheap short-term funding, and a
web of interconnected transactions and claims had built up in the financial
system prior to that time. It became clear that investors had placed
too high a value on the underlying homes, real estate, and other assets
that were supposed to stand behind their investments. Consequently, as
defaults on mortgages multiplied, they triggered a wholesale flight from
related financial securities, which spread across countries and financial
markets. The inadequacy of information available to assess risks properly
magnified that flight from risk (Squam Lake Working Group 2009).
The resulting credit crunch ultimately triggered a global economic
recession from which many countries are still recovering.
Responding to the devastating effects of the financial crisis, on July
21, 2010, Congress enacted the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and
Consumer Protection Act (PL 111-203). The creation of the OFR in that
Act addresses two glaring deficiencies in the financial data infrastructure
that were revealed by the crisis. First, the OFR is charged with increasing
the availability of financial information so that policymakers can better
identify, analyze and monitor potential risks to the U.S. financial system.
Critically, given the interconnectedness of global financial markets, this
legislation permits the acquisition of data from financial institutions
related to their activities globally that may pose a threat to the financial
stability of the United States. Second, OFR is charged with improving
the quality of financial information, in part by standardizing the types
and formats of data that are reported to regulators. Standardized data
would make it easier for policymakers to accurately evaluate whether
a financial institution or group of institutions—located either domestically
or abroad—or certain financial activities in which they may be
engaged pose a threat to the U.S. financial system.
Over the past eighteen months, the OFR has laid the critical
groundwork for enhancing both the quantity and the quality of financial
information that is available to U.S. policymakers. The OFR is in
the midst of comprehensively cataloguing the data that are currently
held and collected by U.S. financial regulators. Concurrently, the OFR
will collaborate with the member agencies of the Financial Stability
Oversight Council to identify and fill deficiencies in the collection of
International Trade and Finance | 137
Outlook for Europe and Implications for the U.S. Economy
As noted, the crisis in Europe has slowed both current and predicted
growth. The IMF estimates that euro-area growth in 2011 was 1.6 percent,
but for 2012, the IMF forecasts that economies in the euro area will contract
by 0.5 percent.
Faltering consumer confidence in Europe has spread to countries outside
the euro area. Britain’s Nationwide Consumer Confidence Index fell for
the fifth month in a row in November 2011, reaching an all-time low of 36
points, compared with a historical average of 77. Economic growth projections
for the European Union for 2012 are lower than for 2011: -0.1 percent
in 2012 compared with 1.6 percent for 2011 (IMF 2012). A slowdown in
Europe could affect the U.S. economy through two channels in addition to
the finance channel mentioned above: trade and direct investment.
Exports. The share of U.S. goods exports to Europe has been over
20 percent for decades. A severe financial episode in Europe could reduce
exports from businesses throughout the United States. As is the case with
flows of inward investment, exports to Europe are distributed broadly across
the United States, as displayed in Figure 5-4. The European Union is the
destination for more than 20 percent of total goods exports from Alabama,
Connecticut, Indiana, Massachusetts, South Carolina, and West Virginia.
Exports range from cars, aircraft, and semiconductors, to coal, gold, soybeans,
kaolin, and live chickens. Moreover, export data for commodities
underestimate the extent of U.S. trade with Europe because, as noted, more
than one-third of U.S. service exports go to Europe. Shrinking purchases of
data on financial markets. Likewise, the OFR has taken an important
step toward enhancing the quality of the financial data infrastructure
through the promotion of a global Legal Entity Identifier (LEI) for
financial institutions. At the G-20 Cannes Summit, leaders supported
the development of a global LEI and tasked the Financial Stability Board
with coordinating this work. U.S. policymakers have partnered with the
global financial services industry, foreign regulators, and associations
such as the International Organization for Standardization to develop
and begin to implement a universal standard for identifying counterparties
to financial transactions (Department of Treasury 2011). In time,
further initiatives will be undertaken to meet the information needs
of regulators in fulfilling the mandate of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street
Reform Act and responding to potential threats to the financial stability
of the United States.
138 | Chapter 5
American goods and services by Europeans could have a significant impact
on U.S. employment in several states.
Foreign Direct Investment. Declines in output, profit, and investor
confidence in Europe could have an adverse effect on the ability and willingness
of European firms to invest in American firms and jobs. The United
States received more than $228 billion in FDI from all foreign sources
in 2010, over 75 percent of which came from Europe. Between 2004 and
2010, FDI flowed into every state, with Texas receiving the most, followed
by Alaska, California, New York, Indiana, Illinois, Ohio, Alabama, South
Carolina, and Georgia.
International Cooperation in Resolving Crises
The data in Figure 5-3 starkly reflect growing concerns of market
participants regarding the scope and magnitude of euro-area bank and sovereign-
credit risk. In the last decade, systemic risk related to financial crises
has received more attention in the economics literature, including studies
by Allen and Gale (2000), Kaminsky, Reinhart, and Vegh (2003), Frankel
and Wei (2005), Reinhart and Rogoff (2009), and Ang and Longstaff (2011).
While Europe has the capacity to take responsibility for addressing
its crisis through decisive policy action and a credible financial backstop,
the United States has made clear that the international community has a
strong interest in the successful resolution of the crisis. The Administration
Note: This map depicts the state from which the product is last shipped, which is not
necessarily the state in which the product is produced. Products with multiple stages of
production often move across state boundaries more than once before leaving the country.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Data.
Figure 5-4
Share of Each State's Goods Exports to the European Union by State,
2010
Legend
< 5%
5% - 9.9%
10% - 14.9%
15% - 20%
> 20%
International Trade and Finance | 139
is engaging with European governments both bilaterally and in multilateral
forums. The United States has also been involved in the response to the crisis
through its role in the IMF.
The Administration continues to urge movement along several
dimensions in Europe: robust implementation of countries’ agreed fiscal and
structural reform programs, in the context of steps that euro-area leaders
have outlined to reform fiscal governance in the euro area; a more substantial
financial firewall to ensure that governments can borrow at sustainable
interest rates while executing policies to strengthen the foundations for
growth and to reduce their debts; and measures to ensure that European
banks have sufficient liquidity and are adequately capitalized to maintain the
full confidence of depositors and creditors.
Global and U.S. economic performance will depend, in part, on the
swift resolution of problems in the euro area. In such times of global economic
and financial disequilibrium, U.S. coordination with international
partners remains essential.
Foreign Direct Investment, International
Trade, and the U.S. Economy
Experience and economic theory suggest that a global economy can
provide enormous advantages for American workers, consumers, and firms.
In the absence of international trade and investment, a country can consume
only what it produces, it can invest only what it saves, it can use only the
technology that it creates, and it can take advantage of only those natural
resources within its borders. Countries that have deliberately cut themselves
off from international trade and investment for extensive periods of time
have paid a stiff price in forgone opportunities for investment, consumption,
and growth. North Korea, a nation that has pursued this kind of isolation
assiduously, illustrates this point in a powerful and tragic way. Before Kim
Il-Sung seized power in northern Korea, it was at least as rich as southern
Korea. Today, per capita GDP in South Korea is over 17 times higher than
that of North Korea.
One of America’s achievements after World War II was helping to
build the open and integrated global trading and investment system that
now incorporates almost all of the world’s economies. Of course, this system
brings challenges, along with opportunities. The Obama Administration
has focused on meeting the challenges of this system in ways that enable
American workers and firms to make the most of the rich opportunities
provided by a more open global trading and investment system. At the same
time, the Administration has sought to ensure, through strong enforcement
140 | Chapter 5
efforts, that other countries play by the rules of the system, and it has sought
to protect those who are potentially adversely affected by global competition
with a stronger safety net and an improved training and reemployment
system (discussed in Chapters 6 and 7).
Investment in the United States by Foreign Companies
The United States had the largest annual flow of inbound FDI of any
economy in the world in every year between 2006 and 2010. By 2010, the
cumulative FDI stock in the United States had reached nearly $3.5 trillion—
more than three times the FDI stock in each of the next three largest recipients
(Hong Kong, France, and the United Kingdom) and more than five
times China’s cumulative inbound FDI stock ($579 billion). Given the rapid
GDP growth of large emerging markets such as Brazil, India, and China,
both before and after the global financial crisis, it is not surprising that these
countries and other emerging markets are absorbing an increasing fraction
of the world’s FDI. Nevertheless, their inflows remained substantially below
those into the United States throughout this period.
Like trade flows, FDI flows tend to be procyclical, rising when the
global economy expands and contracting when it shrinks. In late 2008 and
2009, as the global economy sank into its deepest postwar recession, FDI
inflows around the world contracted (Figure 5-5); by 2009, total FDI flows
were roughly 60 percent of their 2007 levels. Nonetheless, the United States
remained the largest destination for new FDI inflows. As both the U.S. and
global economies recovered from the recession, FDI inflows into the United
States increased 49 percent from 2009 to 2010. Then, as global growth
slowed again in 2011, FDI into the United States also decelerated. Through
the third quarter of 2011, FDI inflows into the United States were running
roughly 4 percent below 2010 levels.
If the global economy returns to normal growth rates, FDI inflows
into the United States will likely resume their growth. The Nation continues
to offer a set of “fundamental attractors” to foreign investors that other
countries struggle to match. One such attractor is the sheer size of America’s
domestic market. In 2010, America’s GDP was nearly two-and-a-half times
larger than that of China, the world’s second-largest economy. The United
States also offers potential investors a strong rule of law, a highly skilled,
motivated workforce, a highly developed financial system, and effective
protection of property rights. The United States continues to lead the world
in key technologies, attracting investment by firms eager to conduct worldclass
research in close proximity to the world’s top universities. For all of
these reasons, leading companies around the world continue to be attracted
to investment opportunities within the borders of the United States.
International Trade and Finance | 141
The Benefits of FDI. U.S. affiliates of foreign firms make significant
contributions to U.S. employment, output, investment, research and development
(R&D), and exports. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) of
the U.S. Department of Commerce surveys the activities of foreign-owned
affiliates in the United States. According to its data, in 2008, subsidiaries
of foreign companies accounted for nearly 5 percent of U.S. private-sector
jobs, more than 11 percent of all U.S. private capital investment, more than
14 percent of all U.S. private-sector R&D, and 19 percent of all U.S. goods
exported. In that year, the U.S. employees of these global companies earned
an average annual compensation of about $73,000—about one-third more
than the economy-wide average.
Economic research shows that the benefits of foreign investment are
even greater than these measures indicate. When foreign subsidiaries use
advanced technologies and effective management to achieve high levels of
productivity in their U.S. operations, the benefits can “spill over” to their
American competitors (Keller and Yeaple 2009). As U.S. firms increasingly
interact in their home market with highly productive foreign subsidiaries,
the U.S. firms may be able to learn from their competitors’ strengths.
Keller and Yeaple find that 14 percent of the aggregate productivity growth
between 1987 and 1996 (a period of rapidly rising FDI in the United States)
resulted from FDI-related productivity spillovers. These spillovers were
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
$ Billions
Figure 5-5
Annual FDI Inflows, Selected Countries, 2006–2010
United States
China
Brazil
Russia
India
Source: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
142 | Chapter 5
particularly valuable for small firms, which do not routinely encounter these
competitors in markets outside the United States. One reason proximity
matters is that employees who move from foreign firms to domestic firms
are often an important conduit through which knowledge diffuses from
foreign to domestic firms (Poole forthcoming).
While foreign firms sometimes establish entirely new enterprises in
the United States, with newly constructed plants and newly hired workers
(known as “greenfield” investment), they more often gain a foothold in the
U.S. market by merging with or acquiring existing domestic businesses.
These transactions can be beneficial. Finally, FDI can help connect domestic
firms to export networks and opportunities. The importance of such connections
is well documented in developing countries (Aitken, Hanson, and
Harrison 1997), but the United States can also benefit from such connections.
Encouraging FDI in the United States. The Obama Administration
has taken vigorous steps to facilitate and promote inward FDI in the United
States. As emerging markets expand, the forces of economic gravity are
likely to pull more and more of the world’s FDI inflows into these economies.
Recognizing the reality of greater global competition for FDI, the
Obama Administration has set up SelectUSA, a “one-stop shop” based in
the Department of Commerce that helps both foreign and U.S. investors find
the best options for their prospective businesses within the borders of the
United States. SelectUSA is the first systematic Federal Government initiative
to identify, inform, assist, and attract potential investors to the United
States. It is also finding ways to partner with state and local economic development
agencies, so that governments at all levels can coordinate efforts to
attract investment. In the United States, state, local, and regional economic
development organizations (EDOs) facilitate business investment attraction,
retention, and expansion. SelectUSA can help these organizations compete
more successfully with alternative production sites outside the United States;
it can also function as an important resource for these organizations on
international investment issues.
SelectUSA’s activities cover a broad range of investment promotion
functions. Staff respond to investment inquiries, help connect investors to
appropriate federal and state agencies, and educate investors regarding relevant
U.S. policies and procedures. SelectUSA staff and senior leadership also
serve as ombudsmen for the investment community in Washington, working
across the Federal Government to address investor concerns and issues
involving federal agencies. Finally, SelectUSA works with U.S. EDO officials
and U.S. embassies and consulates to organize events abroad that enable U.S.
locales to promote themselves as a destination for FDI. President Obama has
recently called for a substantial increase in support for SelectUSA, proposing
International Trade and Finance | 143
$12 million in new resources and an increase in staff to 35 full-time employees.
Complementing this investment, President Obama has proposed to
increase the presence of the Department of Commerce’s U.S. and Foreign
Commercial Service officers in key markets. These new officers will enhance
the ability of the U.S. global network of embassies and consulates to promote
FDI in the United States.
President Obama has also called for tax reforms that will help attract
more FDI. These proposals include a decrease in the United States’ corporate
income tax rate, as well as additional tax incentives for firms that
manufacture, conduct R&D, or invest in the capability to produce clean
energy products within the borders of the United States. At the same time,
the President’s proposals eliminate incentives for U.S. firms to move jobs
and production offshore. By complementing the United States’ fundamental
attractors with well-targeted FDI promotion efforts, the Federal Government
can help ensure that the United States remains a premier destination for foreign
direct investment for many years to come.
The National Export Initiative
In his January 2010 State of the Union address, President Obama set
a goal of doubling U.S. exports of goods and services in five years, meaning
that nominal exports would double from their 2009 level of $1.58 trillion
to an annual level of $3.16 trillion by the end of 2014. To meet that goal,
nominal U.S. exports must grow an average of 15 percent a year. So far,
exports have grown even faster, putting the U.S. economy on track to meet
the President’s goal. In fact, the United States is currently ahead of schedule,
despite the recent global trade slowdown. Over the 12 months ending in
November 2011, total U.S. exports of goods and services exceeded $2.08
trillion, surpassing the pre-crisis peak level of $1.7 trillion and establishing
a historical record. Current data suggest that the ratio of exports to GDP
nearly reached 14 percent in 2011, another historical record.
Anatomy of Recent Growth in Goods Exports. U.S. trade data provide
an interesting picture of the markets and goods in which America’s export
growth has been concentrated since the global financial crisis. Table 5-1
ranks U.S. export goods categories in order of the biggest increases in export
value between the first half of 2009 and the first half of 2011. The top 10
categories collectively account for 72 percent of the total value increase in
exports between the two periods.
The biggest increases have been concentrated in manufacturing
industries characterized by high technology and capital intensity and in primary
products, reflecting America’s abundant endowments of human and
physical capital, its technological prowess, and its natural-resource wealth.
144 | Chapter 5
Between the first half of 2009 and the first half of 2011, the United States
increased its exports of vehicles by more than $26 billion (83 percent); its
exports of engines, appliances, and general machinery by more than $25
billion (35 percent); and its exports of electrical machinery by more than
$19 billion (33 percent). Exports of plastics, organic chemicals, and steel and
ferrous metals increased by 53 percent, 57 percent, and 78 percent, respectively.
These data point to America’s competitiveness in important sectors
of manufacturing.
At the same time, the data reaffirm the United States’ strength as an
exporter of natural-resource-intensive goods. Exports of mineral fuels and
oils (a commodity dominated by shale oil) surged by 150 percent, or more
than $35 billion, over the two-year period. That surge stems from technological
breakthroughs in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing that
are allowing U.S. producers to extract oil from previously unusable areas;
these technological developments are reviewed further in Chapter 8. Fuel
exports have grown so much that the United States became a net exporter
in 2011, for the first time in decades. The United States remains the world’s
largest importer of crude oil, and U.S. net imports of crude remain large
relative to net exports of fuel products, but increased domestic production is
offsetting some crude oil imports. Exports of gold, diamonds, and precious
metals grew 94 percent, reflecting the high prices of those commodities on
international markets.
Exports of cereals grew 77 percent, reflecting America’s strength as
a producer of agricultural commodities. This strength is also reflected in
the impressive growth of total agricultural exports, a broader category not
shown in the table, which increased by 51.8 percent over the same period, an
expansion of $24 billion in dollar terms. The U.S. Department of Agriculture
reports that U.S. agricultural exports reached a record high of $137.4 billion
in Fiscal Year 2011, and that America’s agricultural sector recorded a
trade surplus of $42 billion over that period. America’s ranchers, farmers,
and producers are benefiting from the Administration’s focus on free trade
agreements and increased market access abroad.
Trends Driving Growth in Goods Exports. The sharp growth in
goods exports reflects, in part, the impact of recovering from the depth of
the global financial and economic crisis. It also reflects the impact of coordinated
Federal Government action flowing from the President’s National
Export Initiative. These actions amplify the positive influence of longer-term
trends that are enhancing the competitiveness of the U.S. tradable goods sector,
particularly in manufacturing. U.S. workers are more productive than
those of any other G-20 economy, and U.S. productivity growth has been
especially strong in the manufacturing sector. However, highly productive
International Trade and Finance | 145
U.S. workers can be placed at a competitive disadvantage because of low
labor costs abroad. This disadvantage was especially severe in the early
years of the 2000s when the enduring effects of earlier financial crises in
many parts of the world depressed production costs in much of Asia, Brazil,
Russia, and elsewhere.
Since then, continued robust productivity growth in the United States,
particularly in the manufacturing sector, has been reinforced by a gradual
realignment of the currencies of many U.S. trading partners. The result has
been a sharp improvement in relative unit labor costs in the United States.
For example, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks changes over
time in the unit labor cost of manufacturing in the United States and in key
trading partners. U.S. hourly compensation in manufacturing has grown
over the past decade, but rapid productivity growth in the United States has
reduced the cost of producing a unit of manufactured output. Meanwhile,
measured in U.S. dollars, the cost of producing a unit of manufactured
output in key trading partners has risen, in some cases substantially. Of the
19 economies tracked by the BLS, only Taiwan managed to improve its unit
labor cost position more than the United States did.4 Figure 5-6 displays
changes in manufacturing unit labor costs for some of the key economies
tracked by the BLS.
4 Although the BLS does not track Chinese unit labor costs, it has tracked an index of import
prices from China since 2003, and the most recent movements in this index suggest that
Chinese unit labor costs are also rising.
Table 5-1
Growth in U.S. Goods Exports, by Product
Product HS-code
Export growth,
2009:H1–2011:H1
12-month
sum
(Sept. 2010–
Aug. 2011)
($ Billions)
Change
($ Billions)
Change
(% )
Mineral fuels (including shale oil) 27 35.8 150 113.3
Vehicles and parts 87 26.3 83 112.7
Engines, appliances, and general machinery 84 25.7 35 198.7
Electrical machinery and equipment accessories 85 19.1 33 157.3
Precious metals and gems 71 16.6 94 64.9
Plastics 39 10.2 53 57.5
Organic chemicals 29 8.0 57 44.4
Optical equipment and medical devices 90 7.4 24 78.0
Cereals 10 6.7 77 27.8
Iron and steel 72 5.5 78 23.8
Note: Export growth is measured between the first half of 2009 (2009:H1) and the first half of 2011 (2011:H1).
Source: U.S. International Trade Commission.
146 | Chapter 5
The impact of these shifts can be seen in a number of industries
including the auto industry. As U.S. auto demand recovers, the Big 3
domestic auto companies and the foreign-domiciled companies have been
expanding U.S. production. This expansion is designed not only to serve the
U.S. market but also to use U.S. production sites as an export platform from
which to serve other markets within the Americas and beyond. Ford has
announced intentions to increase investment in the United States, both to
serve the U.S. market and to export. Such plans include insourcing production
of its F-650 and F-750 medium-duty trucks to Ohio from Mexico; it also
reportedly plans to move manufacture of components like transmission oil
pumps from China to Michigan.
Improved competitiveness also appears to be reflected in employment
data. U.S. manufacturers have added jobs for two consecutive years,
something that had not happened since the late 1990s. Manufacturing
employment has grown faster in the United States than in any other leading
developed economy since the start of the recovery. As of the most recent
period for which comprehensive data are available, the United States has
added more net manufacturing jobs since the start of 2010 than the rest
of the Group of 7 countries put together, with over 300,000 created since
December 2009. While the economy is still far from recovering all the
manufacturing jobs lost during the recession, signs suggest that the United
-23.0 -10.8 2.1 2.9
14.1 17.1
20.8
40.8 44.1
67.6
79.0
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Percent
Figure 5-6
Change in Manufacturing Unit Labor Costs, 2002–2010
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Taiwan
United
States
Singapore Japan United
Kingdom
Korea Sweden Germany France Canada Italy
International Trade and Finance | 147
States may be experiencing a manufacturing revival. Between 2010:Q1 and
2011:Q3, manufacturing employment rose 2.5 percent in the United States
compared with 2.4 percent in Germany and 1.8 percent in Canada.
In some industries, the advantage created by high U.S. productivity
is reinforced by the additional advantage of abundant, domestic, low-cost
natural gas. Only a few years ago, leaders of the domestic organic chemical
industry predicted that shortages in natural gas would dramatically raise
the domestic price of natural gas, one of their key inputs. Without adequate
domestic supplies of natural gas at reasonable prices, it seemed likely that
chemical production would have to shift overseas.
Since the mid-2000s, however, the discovery of new natural gas
reserves, such as those within the Marcellus Shale Formation, and the development
of hydraulic fracturing techniques to extract natural gas from these
reserves have led to rapidly growing domestic production and relatively low
domestic prices for households and downstream industrial users. By keeping
domestic energy costs relatively low, the increased supply from this resource
supports energy-intensive manufacturing in the United States. In fact,
companies such as Dow Chemical and Westlake Chemical have announced
intentions to make major investments in new U.S. facilities over the next
several years. In the longer run, the scale of America’s natural gas endowment
appears to be large enough that exports of natural gas to other major
markets could be economically viable. The Obama Administration is taking
steps to ensure that this resource is developed in a safe and environmentally
responsible way.
However, in most of the manufacturing industries where American
firms continue
to enjoy robust export sales, U.S. producers rely principally
on high productivity, rather th,an inexpensive inputs, to offset the higher
wages and other labor compensation they pay their U.S. workers. The openness
and competitive intensity of the American economy have been a key
source of our national strength, since they have increased the efficiency
of U.S. firms and industries. (See Hsieh and Klenow 2009, 2011 for recent
research.) As a consequence, even extremely low wages in developing countries
are not sufficient to provide a commanding cost advantage with respect
to U.S. firms, at least in some product categories.
Exports can also be measured by looking at major destination markets.
Table 5-2 ranks destination markets by the increase in value of exports
between the first half of 2009 and the first half of 2011. The top 10 markets
collectively accounted for 70 percent of the total increase in export value.
Export flows to Canada and Mexico increased by nearly $80 billion. Much
of the rest of the U.S. export expansion was driven by exports to Asia. Even
the tsunami-battered Japanese economy purchased nearly $8 billion more
148 | Chapter 5
in U.S. exports in the first half of 2011 than it did in the first half of 2009.
Outside of North America and Asia, Brazil continued to display its emerging
economic importance, absorbing a 71 percent increase in U.S. exports that,
in dollar terms, slightly exceeded export growth to Japan.
The Role of Services in Export Growth and America’s Current
Account Balance
While export growth is critical, exports are just one component of the
current account balance, the most comprehensive measure of the Nation’s
exchange of goods and services with the rest of the world. The main components
of the current account include exports and imports of goods, exports
and imports of services, and the income balance—the difference between the
income American firms earn from their foreign businesses and the income
foreign firms earn from their U.S. businesses.
A look at the recent history of the U.S. current account balance and its
key components reveals some interesting patterns. Although U.S. exports of
goods are at historical highs, reflecting in part the improved competitiveness
of American manufacturers, the U.S. trade deficit in goods (which does not
include trade in services) has nevertheless widened significantly since early
2009, as an expanding economy has boosted demand for imports (Figure
5-7). The trajectory of the U.S. current account, however, is following a
different path now than it did in the previous recovery, and the difference
primarily reflects the impact of the other two main elements of the current
account—services trade and the U.S. income balance.
Table 5-2
Dissection of U.S. Goods Export Growth, by Market
Market
Export growth,
2009:H1–2011:H1
12-month sum
(Sept. 2010–Aug.
2011)
($ Billions)
Change
($ Billions)
Change
(% )
Canada 43.1 45 272.2
Mexico 36.3 62 187.1
China, Mainland 19.2 63 102.2
Euro Area 16.1 20 193.2
Republic of Korea 9.0 72 42.1
Brazil 8.4 71 40.2
Japan 7.7 31 64.3
Hong Kong 6.9 71 31.9
Taiwan 6.0 80 27.5
Singapore 5.0 51 30.5
Note: Export growth is measured between the first half of 2009 (2009:H1) and the first half of 2011 (2011:H1).
Source: U.S. International Trade Commission.
International Trade and Finance | 149
From the early 2000s through 2006, the current account balance
tracked the trade balance in goods quite closely. The two series began to
diverge in late 2007. The balance on goods remained in deep deficit, but the
trade surplus in services began to increase, and the income balance grew
even more rapidly. When the global financial crisis hit in earnest in the
third quarter of 2008, U.S. growth and import demand dried up, and the
two series moved closely together (this time rapidly toward balance) through
early 2009. Then, as financial markets stabilized and growth resumed, a gap
opened up once again. The balance on goods deteriorated, but the services
surplus expanded and the income balance grew even more sharply, largely
offsetting the declining balance in goods and keeping the current account
relatively stable. More recently, the goods trade balance appears to have
broadly stabilized, whereas the services surplus and the income balance
continue to grow. With a need to further strengthen the current account balance,
federal policymakers recognize the need not only to encourage exports
of goods, but also to expand the important role that services trade can play
in that process.
The Prospects for Trade Growth in Services. Like most other advanced
economies, U.S. GDP is dominated by service industries. According to the
Bureau of Economic Analysis, services, broadly defined, account for more
than 60 percent of U.S. GDP. However, the role of business services within
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
2000:Q1 2002:Q1 2004:Q1 2006:Q1 2008:Q1 2010:Q1
$ Billions
Figure 5-7
U.S. Current Account Balance and Its Components, 2000–2011
Balance
on goods
Overall current
account balance
Balance on income
Balance
on services
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Note: The current account balance above includes goods, services, and income, but does
not include unilateral transfers.
2011:Q3
150 | Chapter 5
the U.S. economy is less widely recognized. In 2007, a year unaffected by the
recent severe downturn and gradual recovery, business services, a collection
of industries that includes finance, engineering services, research and
development services, and software production, employed 25 percent of the
U.S. workforce according to data from the Economic Census. The share of
employment in business services was substantially larger than in the entire
manufacturing sector in that year (10 percent), and the average wage in
business services, $56,000, was significantly higher than in manufacturing
($46,000) (Jensen 2011).
While services remain more difficult to trade than goods, advances in
communications technologies and the growing ease and declining expense
of international travel are making business services increasingly tradable
across countries. As this trend gained strength, employment in the business
service sector increased almost 30 percent between 1997 and 2007, while
manufacturing employment decreased more than 20 percent. Most tradable
business services rely intensively on highly skilled experts, which the United
States has in large numbers. In other words, the growing tradability of business
services plays to America’s comparative advantage. Some evidence of
this potential is apparent when one looks at the broader context of America’s
trade across the full range of service industries.
Services exports have expanded dramatically, growing by 114 percent
between 1997 and 2010, according to official data. They now account
for nearly 30 percent of total U.S. exports. Imports of services have also
expanded rapidly, but the U.S. surplus in services trade, already large, has
more than tripled since 2003.
What are the categories of services exports, and what is their relative
contribution to the surplus? Figure 5-8 depicts the aggregate service trade
flows in the five main categories tracked by official statistics and measures
their contribution to America’s overall services trade surplus.
Travel exports reflect the spending of foreign tourists and business
travelers to the United States who purchase goods and services here, while
travel imports reflect purchases made by U.S. residents traveling abroad.
The United States remains among the world’s leading tourist destinations
and runs a surplus in travel trade. The Obama Administration has sought
to expand U.S. travel exports with unprecedented federal action to promote
international tourism in the United States. In 2010, the President signed into
law the Travel Promotion Act, which established the Corporation for Travel
Promotion, now known as Brand USA, a public-private partnership dedicated
to promoting travel to the United States. The State Department has
also increased its visa-processing capacity in priority countries like Brazil
International Trade and Finance | 151
and China to ensure that the United States benefits from the rapid expansion
of outbound tourism from these emerging markets.
Moreover, on January 19, the President established a Task Force
on Travel and Competitiveness that will develop a National Travel and
Tourism Strategy with a goal of making the United States the world’s top
travel and tourism destination. The benefits of that strategy include not only
the potential increase in travel exports, but also lower travel imports as it
will provide Americans with more and better choices of travel and tourism
destinations within the United States. Because of their value as public goods,
the government has an important role in ensuring that national treasures
such as Yellowstone National Park and the Statue of Liberty are appropriately
maintained and made accessible to domestic and international tourists.
While there are many private, state, and local destinations in the United
States, public expenditures on the National Park System (NPS) are much
lower than the benefits they provide to all Americans, even to those who are
not necessarily planning a vacation or visit to one of the 397 destinations
that make up the NPS (National Research Council 1996). This provides yet
another example of the ways in which investments in the environment yield
benefits for the economy (Chapter 8).
In the category of passenger fares, exports are those received by U.S.
carriers from foreign residents; imports are those paid by U.S. residents
28
4
-11
72 70
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
Travel Passenger fares Other
transportation
Royalties and
license fees
Other private
services
Thousands
$ Billions
Figure 5-8
Contribution to Services Surplus by Service Sector Category, 2010
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
152 | Chapter 5
to foreign carriers. Other transportation exports and imports include U.S.
international transactions arising from the transportation of goods by ocean,
air, land, pipeline, and inland water carriers.
Royalties and license fees cover transactions with nonresidents that
involve intangible assets, including patents and trade secrets, which are
involved in the production of goods. This category also includes copyrights,
trademarks, franchises, rights to reproduce or distribute motion pictures
and television recordings, rights to broadcast live events, software licensing
fees, and other intellectual property rights. In 2010, this category was the
largest single contributor to the services surplus, highlighting the importance
to the United States of enforcement of strong intellectual property
rights in other countries.5
The final category, other private services (OPS), generates by far
the highest level of exports, and it is this category in which the promise of
business services exports is seen. The main services included in OPS are
education, financial, insurance, telecommunications, and business, professional,
and technical services. The most important subcategory—business,
professional, and technical services—accounts for more than half of OPS
exports. Altogether, OPS exports expanded by about 150 percent from 2000
through 2010—a compound average growth rate of nearly 10 percent a year.
The additional detail on service exports and imports presented in
Table 5-3 and Table 5-4 underlines two important facts about U.S. services
trade. First, the other advanced industrial countries are still America’s
dominant trading partners in this sector, both as markets and as suppliers.
As rapid economic growth raises income levels in large emerging markets,
however, U.S. service export flows to these countries are likely to grow.
Second, as noted, the surplus in services is disproportionately driven by two
categories—other private services and royalties and licensing—that are skillintensive
and thus conform to America’s comparative advantage as a technologically
advanced nation with an abundant supply of highly educated
workers. This supply of skilled workers and the broader role that education
plays in the U.S. labor market is discussed in Chapter 6.
In addition to exporting services, U.S. firms provide services through
affiliates in foreign markets. Over the past decade, services provided through
affiliates have grown rapidly, and in 2009, the most recent year for which
comprehensive data are available, services supplied through the foreign
affiliates of U.S. firms totaled $1.1 trillion. Of course, U.S. customers also
5 In fact, the official numbers for royalty and license fees may understate, perhaps substantially,
America’s receipts for the use of its intangible assets. A report submitted last year by leading
international economists (Feenstra et al. 2010) noted the ability of multinational corporations
to effectively locate their intellectual property in low-tax jurisdictions, minimizing their global
tax liability as well as measured U.S. royalties and license fees.
International Trade and Finance | 153
purchase services from the U.S. affiliates of foreign firms. These purchases
totaled $668.8 billion in 2009. The difference between services received from
and supplied to the United States via the channel of affiliate sales was $407.6
billion, providing yet another reflection of America’s comparative advantage
in this domain (Koncz-Bruner and Flatness 2011).
Policy Initiatives to Support Export Growth in Goods and Services
Recent economic research has focused on U.S. firm productivity and
the fixed cost of exporting as fundamental determinants of U.S. exports at
the firm and product level (Bernard et al. 2003; Melitz 2003). Fixed costs for
firms are associated not only with the decision to begin exporting but also
with the decision to export to a specific country. Before significant exports
to a given country can begin, a prospective exporting firm must develop a
strategy that allows it to compete successfully against experienced rivals in
that country, which operates under a different legal system and may use a
different language. Successful exporters must invest considerable management
attention and time to developing this strategy before they can begin
to earn any returns from exporting. The costs of serving a particular foreign
market may also increase if the firm’s products and complementary services
must be significantly altered to meet the demands and tastes of customers
in that market. Exporters also must incur the costs of finding distribution
channels in the foreign country and the ongoing costs of transporting their
goods across national borders and contending with tariff or nontariff barriers
to trade. These costs are worth incurring only if the firm is dynamic and
productive enough to have a high probability of success.
Federal programs exist to help firms deal with these costs. While
private firms must take the lead in crafting their export strategies, the
Department of Commerce’s International Trade Administration maintains
offices of trade professionals in more than 100 U.S. communities and 77
foreign countries to help U.S. firms become export-ready, identify target
markets, and navigate the demands of foreign regulation and cultural differences.
The Federal Government can also use effective multilateral, bilateral,
or regional trade negotiations to reduce the costs imposed on U.S. firms by
foreign tariff and nontariff barriers. It can also seek to ensure that American
firms face a level playing field by insisting that U.S. trading partners honor
their treaty commitments regarding market access for U.S. firms. Finally, in
circumstances in which a particular exporter faces financing constraints or
the threat of subsidized finance for international competitors, the Federal
Government can seek to alleviate these constraints and counter foreign
154 | Chapter 5
Table 5-4
Cross-Border Services Imports by Type and Country, 2010
Country
2010 Imports ($ Millions)
Total private
services Travel Passenger
fares
Other transportation
Royalties
and license
fees
Other
private
services
All countries 368,036 75,507 27,279 51,202 33,450 180,598
Total for the top 10 countries 215,078 33,704 11,410 25,382 25,071 119,511
Canada 39,652 4,324 3,705 3,107 3,031 25,485
United Kingdom 31,740 245 — 974 16 30,505
Japan 25,579 6,539 501 4,404 1,036 13,099
Ireland 23,541 3,278 1,331 5,670 7,817 5,445
Germany 22,476 2,606 2,562 3,632 3,187 10,489
Mexico 19,665 630 399 1,748 5,272 11,616
China 15,067 2,409 1,473 1,887 4,016 5,282
Switzerland 13,730 8,999 697 904 379 2,751
Brazil 13,661 2,108 207 156 141 11,049
France 9,967 2,566 535 2,900 176 3,790
Other countries 152,958 41,803 15,869 25,820 8,379 61,087
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Table 5-3
Cross-Border Services Exports by Type and Country, 2010
Country
2010 Exports ($ Millions)
Total private
services Travel Passenger
fares
Other transportation
Royalties
and license
fees
Other
private
services
All countries 530,274 103,505 30,931 39,936 105,583 250,320
Total for the top 10 countries 290,680 59,489 19,659 20,395 65,607 125,530
Canada 50,521 16,641 4,182 2,984 8,287 18,427
United Kingdom 48,535 8,765 2,801 3,641 6,864 26,464
Japan 44,750 10,198 4,360 3,555 10,721 15,916
Ireland 24,840 1,033 280 300 12,850 10,377
Germany 24,118 4,534 1,248 2,779 6,181 9,376
Mexico 24,110 6,117 2,612 1,226 2,526 11,629
China 21,135 3,780 1,225 2,296 3,333 10,501
Switzerland 20,313 1,043 320 1,169 8,281 9,500
Brazil 16,515 4,236 1,683 998 3,123 6,475
France 15,843 3,142 948 1,447 3,441 6,865
Other countries 239,594 44,016 11,272 19,541 39,976 124,790
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
International Trade and Finance | 155
government efforts. Over the past three years, the Obama Administration
has placed renewed emphasis on all of these policy domains.
Free Trade Agreements with Colombia, Panama, and Korea. The
Obama Administration has worked to restore the Nation’s economic stability
and support jobs for more Americans with the expansion of smart,
responsible trade policy. From day one, the Obama Administration has
insisted on higher standards for trade agreements. The President moved to
address important concerns that the Administration, certain stakeholders,
and Members of Congress had with respect to the situations in Colombia,
Panama, and Korea. This domestic consultation and further consultations
with U.S. trading partners took time, as did negotiations with Congress to
ensure that the passage of the free trade agreements was accompanied by a
strengthening of America’s Trade Adjustment Assistance program for workers
adversely impacted by international competition and by an extension of
key trade preference programs. Once this process was complete, Congress
passed the three agreements in quick succession in the fall of 2011, marking
the biggest step forward in American trade liberalization in nearly two
decades. Of the three agreements, the most economically significant was
the Korea–United States free trade agreement, which was expected to boost
annual U.S. goods exports to Korea by as much as $11 billion. The agreement
also included Korean commitments expected to result in considerable
expansion of U.S. services exports.
The Trans-Pacific Partnership. In November 2009, President Obama
announced the Administration’s intention to participate in Trans-Pacific
Partnership (TPP) negotiations to conclude a free trade agreement with key
trading partners in the Asia-Pacific region. The agreement aims to set a new
and higher standard for regional free trade agreements, not only addressing
the traditional core issues in such agreements but broadening the scope
to include regulatory coherence and priorities for small and medium-size
enterprises. In addition to the United States, the other countries participating
in the negotiations currently include Australia, Brunei Darussalam,
Chile, Malaysia, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam.
At the November 2011 APEC meeting in Honolulu, TPP leaders
announced the broad outlines of a TPP agreement. In addition to existing
negotiating partners, Japan, Canada, and Mexico have formally expressed
their interest in joining TPP negotiations. While no decision has been
made yet by the TPP countries regarding expanding negotiations, interest
by Japan, Canada, and Mexico in the TPP demonstrates the economic and
strategic importance of this initiative to the Asia-Pacific region.
Support for Small Exporters. In a world of imperfect financial markets,
the costs of financing export operations pose an additional barrier for
156 | Chapter 5
smaller firms. Given that export opportunities can come to small exporters
with significant risks attached, domestic financial institutions may regard a
small firm that is highly dependent on exports as a riskier (and therefore less
creditworthy) borrower than one with an exclusively domestic focus. The
relatively modest financing needs of small exporters are a further disincentive
to private financial institutions, which would have to engage in timeconsuming
assessments of the firm, its products, and the country-specific
risks involved in a transaction to originate only a small loan with limited
value for the lending institution. Unless it is obvious to the lender that the
firm has excellent prospects for significant export growth, and brings with
it the near certainty of rapid expansion in loan volume, the money a private
bank can make on such a transaction is limited relative to the transaction
costs themselves.
To address these issues the Federal Government has directed the
Export-Import Bank of the United States to proactively support small
and medium-size firms. First established in the 1930s to finance U.S.
international trade when and where private-sector financing was difficult
or unreasonably costly to obtain, the Ex-Im Bank has historically focused
much of its lending activity on larger, established exporters. The Obama
Administration, however, has encouraged the bank to substantially increase
lending to smaller firms, and in Fiscal Year 2010, the Ex-Im Bank authorized
$5 billion—20 percent of its total authorizations—to support small businesses
as primary exporters. The Ex-Im Bank approved 3,091 transactions
involving small business exporters—88 percent of total authorizations. In
the same year, the bank issued 2,524 insurance policies to small business
exporters, 90 percent of such policies for the year. The bank also authorized
a record $2.2 billion in working-capital guarantees, 70 percent of which supported
small business.
Financial support for the expanding international activities of small
business extends beyond the Ex-Im Bank. The Overseas Private Investment
Corporation (OPIC), the U.S. Government’s development finance institution,
extends medium- to long-term financing through direct loans, loan
guaranties, political risk insurance, and support for investment funds to eligible
investment projects in developing and emerging markets, where conventional
financial institutions often are reluctant or unable to lend. In Fiscal
Year 2011, 78 percent of OPIC’s projects, representing nearly $1 billion in
commitments, involved American small and medium-sized businesses.6
6 The Ex-Im Bank and OPIC follow the Small Business Administration’s definition of
a small business, using guidelines that reflect, among other things, sales, employment
levels, and sector of economic activity. These guidelines are available online at
http://www.sba.gov/sites/default/files/Size_Standards_Table.pdf.
International Trade and Finance | 157
Promoting U.S. Economic Interests Abroad. Even as it seeks to open
up new markets for American business through new trade agreements, the
Obama Administration is also working to protect American commercial
interests under existing trade agreements. An historic victory came in May
2011, when the World Trade Organization (WTO) issued a final ruling siding
with the United States in its case against the European Union over illegal
subsidies to Airbus. After decades of dispute and more than five years of
official proceedings, the WTO ruled that the EU governments had provided
$18 billion in illegal subsidies to Airbus and ordered them removed by the
end of the year. U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk hailed the ruling, saying,
“The WTO Appellate Body has confirmed without a doubt that Airbus
received massive subsidies for more than 40 years and that these subsidies
have greatly harmed the United States, including causing Boeing to lose sales
and market share in key markets throughout the world.” If the European
Union fails to comply with the WTO directive, the United States can seek
the right to impose countermeasures.
In its ongoing dialogue with China, the Obama Administration
secured a strong commitment from Chinese President Hu Jintao that China
would stop discriminating against U.S. technologies and intellectual property
in its government procurement plans. The Administration is monitoring
developments closely to ensure that market realities conform to central
government directives. The United States has filed a WTO case against
China, challenging the troubling imposition by China of antidumping and
countervailing duties against imports of U.S. chicken “broiler products.”
The Administration scored another major victory in January 2012 when the
WTO’s Appellate Body upheld a WTO panel ruling condemning Chinese
export quotas and duties on certain key industrial raw materials as a violation
of China’s WTO commitments. These actions add to a series of cases
in which the Federal Government has taken action at the WTO to protect
U.S. economic interests jeopardized by Chinese policy in areas such as steel
products, electronic payment services, and wind power equipment.
In November 2011, the United States gained China’s confirmation
through bilateral negotiations that it would not require foreign electric
vehicle manufacturers to transfer technology to Chinese enterprises or to
establish Chinese brands as a condition for investing and selling in China.
One year earlier, the United States successfully persuaded China to adopt
transparent and non-discriminatory technology standards for its emerging
smart grid market and to remain technologically neutral with regard to the
development of third-generation and future technologies for its telecommunications
market.
158 | Chapter 5
Several of America’s trading partners, including China, have effectively
imposed bans on U.S. meat product exports. These bans have no
scientific basis, and the Administration has been trying to bring these bans
to an end as soon as possible. In 2011, agreements were reached to resume
exports to Chile and Egypt. Fifty-seven countries have removed their avian
influenza bans on imports of poultry products from the United States since
2008. Most of the countries that imposed bans on the import of U.S. swine,
pork, and pork products in the wake of international concern over the H1N1
virus have removed those bans.
With strong support from the United States, Russia concluded negotiations
to join the WTO in December 2011. In supporting Russia’s WTO
accession, the Obama Administration has laid the basis for a more effective,
rules-based approach to managing U.S. trade relations with the largest
economy not yet inside the WTO system. The Administration will be working
with Congress to end application of the “Jackson-Vanik” amendment
to Russia so that the United States can enjoy all of the benefits of Russia’s
membership in the WTO and U.S. companies and workers can compete on a
level playing field with those of other WTO Members in exporting products
and services to Russia.7
To further enhance the Federal Government’s ability to protect the
Nation’s commercial interests, the President is creating and seeking funding
for a new Trade Enforcement Unit, which will significantly enhance the
Administration’s capabilities to aggressively challenge unfair trade practices
under international and domestic trade rules. The President is also proposing
to improve trade inspection capabilities of the Customs and Border Patrol
and the Food and Drug Administration, to increase the likelihood of stopping
counterfeit, pirated, or unsafe goods before they enter the U.S. market.
Certain countries, including China, aggressively use subsidized capital to
promote their exports, and appear to offer such export financing on better
terms than allowed under current international best practices. In response,
the Administration will actively employ its existing authorities so that the
Ex-Im Bank can provide U.S. firms competing for domestic or third-country
sales with matching financial support to counter foreign noncompetitive
official financing that fails to observe international best practices.
The IMF estimates that sub-Saharan Africa will grow by 5.5 percent
in 2012, faster than advanced, emerging, and developing economies as a
whole. Between 2000 and 2010, five of the 10 fastest-growing economies
in the world were in sub-Saharan Africa, and trade between Africa and the
7 The Jackson-Vanik amendment is a provision in the 1974 Trade Act that denies most favored
nation status to certain countries that restrict emigration. It was introduced during the Cold
War, partly as a response to efforts by the Soviet Union to restrict emigration.
International Trade and Finance | 159
rest of the world increased more than 200 percent. Central to the United
States’ economic policy for Africa is the African Growth and Opportunity
Act (AGOA), which provides duty-free access to a broad range of exports
from 37 eligible sub-Saharan African countries. To help African countries
make the most of AGOA’s trade benefits, the United States funds technical
assistance work at Regional Trade Hubs. The United States also fosters
investment by negotiating Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs) with African
countries. In 2009, the United States launched BIT negotiations with
Mauritius, and, in 2011, the U.S. Senate ratified the U.S.-Rwanda BIT.
In agriculture and other sectors, the U.S. Agency for International
Development uses public-private partnerships to build new markets and
has been recognized by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and
Development as the best among its peers with respect to private-sector
engagement. The Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) is partnering
with American and local businesses. From helping the Port of Cotonou
in Benin cut its average customs-clearance time in half to facilitating an
American company’s efforts to provide much-needed power to Tanzania’s
national grid, the MCC is investing in infrastructure to expand trade,
commerce, and development across the African continent. Other agencies—
including OPIC and the Ex-Im Bank—have significantly increased
their investment in Africa. These activities are consistent with the goals of
President Obama’s Presidential Policy Directive on Global Development
signed in September 2010 that establishes a new model for U.S. development
efforts.
Tax Reform to Promote American Competitiveness. The
Administration’s proposed reform of the U.S. corporate income tax seeks
to enhance American competitiveness, promote investment in the United
States, and support continued robust growth of American exports. As part
of a comprehensive tax reform plan, the President has proposed a reduction
in the U.S. corporate income tax rate, with additional incentives available for
firms that manufacture, conduct research and development, or invest in the
capability to produce clean energy products within the borders of the United
States. At the same time, the President addresses longstanding features of
the American corporate tax system that encourage some companies to move
jobs and production overseas.
Increasing Market Access for Services. As noted, the United States has
a strong comparative advantage in services. The global market for services
trade, however, remains far more closed than the global market for manufactured
goods. The long history of extensive trade in goods, the relatively
simple nature of many barriers (tariffs and quotas) to such trade, and the
cumulative result of six decades of multilateral, bilateral, and regional trade
160 | Chapter 5
liberalization efforts have resulted in a global economy in which formal barriers
to trade in manufactured goods are reasonably low, especially in the
advanced industrial countries.
The barriers to trade in services are more complex and harder to
quantify. Hufbauer, Schott, and Wong (2010) review a number of methodologies
for quantifying the barriers to trade in services and present new
estimates at the country level of the tariff equivalents of these barriers. Their
findings suggest that the aggregate level of discrimination against services
imports in important emerging markets such as China, India, and Indonesia
is equivalent to a tariff on these imports of more than 60 percent. The size
of these barriers may not be surprising—extensive international trade in
services is a recent phenomenon, and diplomatic efforts to open services
markets are just beginning—but these barriers deprive American firms of
critical export opportunities to rapidly emerging markets in an area where
their international comparative advantage is the strongest.
America’s productive exporters of services cannot solve this problem
on their own. The President is committed to negotiating effectively and
aggressively for increased liberalization of services trade. The Administration
has already made progress in bilateral and regional trade agreements, but the
largest emerging-market economies have not yet been fully engaged in these
initiatives. The primary multilateral means for seeking greater services market
access has been through negotiations pursuant to the General Agreement
on Trade in Services (GATS) and, to a lesser degree, the WTO Agreement
on Government Procurement. While taking existing GATS disciplines and
market access commitments into account, the United States is also pursuing
additional pathways to services liberalization, including a new, multiparty
agreement open to any country ready to take on high standards and address
new issues such as trade in the digital economy. Other advanced countries
and progressive developing countries are likely to share the U.S. interest
in pushing for greater liberalization of services trade and may be willing
partners in this effort.
Recent scholarship demonstrates that services liberalization is in the
interest of countries that are importing services as well as those that are
exporting services. Better access to world-class services raises productivity
and living standards in emerging-market economies. Interesting evidence
on this point comes from a randomized experiment in India (Bloom et al.
2011). Researchers based at Stanford University and the World Bank randomly
selected a set of Indian textile factories to receive a complimentary
five-month program of consulting services from a leading international firm.
Upon arriving in these factories, the researchers and consultants found that
productivity was hampered by poor management practices. Over the next
International Trade and Finance | 161
five months, the consultants worked with the firms to implement standard
management practices proven to have enhanced productivity, output, and
profitability in the West. When the project ended, the “treated” factories had
cut defects roughly in half, substantially reduced inventories, and increased
output, while the control factories saw little change. The authors calculate
that these performance improvements increased profits by about $350,000
a year. These are sufficiently large increases that the firms would have made
enough money from the consulting projects to be able to pay the consultants
commercial rates for their engagement in the projects.
Given the magnitude of the improvement, why had the firms not
adopted these practices earlier? The researchers’ results suggest that informational
barriers were the primary factor explaining the lack of adoption.
What is true for India is likely to be true throughout the developing world.
By reducing barriers to trade in services, developing countries can help their
own firms move toward the productivity frontier achieved in the West.
Conclusion
Over the course of 2011, the pace of growth in the global economy
slowed, posing challenges for the U.S. recovery. Nevertheless, U.S. exports
have climbed to record high levels, the current account deficit narrowed
to 2.9 percent of GDP in the third quarter, and the economy has begun to
rebalance its sources of growth, laying the foundation for sustained future
expansion. The greatest threats to continued progress in these domains lie
beyond America’s borders. Provided Europe’s debt crisis can be resolved,
America’s export growth and progress toward rebalancing are likely to continue
at a brisk pace. Other developments in the global economy, notably
the continued expansion of international trade in services and the interest
of major trading partners in new U.S. trade initiatives, provide a foundation
of new opportunities on which the U.S. economy can build in the years to
come.
163
C H A P T E R 6
JOBS AND INCOME:
TODAY AND TOMORROW
Recessions caused by financial crises typically cause large declines in
aggregate demand, as households that have borrowed excessively during
the boom years bring down their debt during and after the recession.
This deleveraging cycle takes time and disrupts the labor market, because
reductions in consumer spending mean that employers require fewer workers
to satisfy customer demand. Long-term problems that have been building
over several decades pose a further set of challenges for the labor market.
Inequality was sharply rising and earnings were stagnant for middle-income
families for many years before the latest recession. And job growth from the
end of the 2001 recession through 2007 was the weakest for any recovery in
more than five decades. The Great Recession exacerbated these problems.
Despite the severe damage caused by the recession that began in
December 2007, the labor market is gradually improving. Sustained privatesector
job growth resumed more quickly after the official end of the 2007–09
recession than it did after the two previous recessions (Figure 6-1). Private
employers have now added jobs, on net, every month since February 2010.
In 2011, 2.1 million private-sector jobs were added to the economy, the most
in any year since 2005. But, given the depth of the 2007–09 recession, the
recovery has not yet resulted in enough new jobs to replace all of those that
were lost.
Continuing the recovery is essential to putting more Americans back
to work. And even as the economy and job market recover, long-term trends
that predate the recession continue to pose a challenge for American families
and businesses. Responding to these challenges, the President has proposed
measures that independent economists predict would create millions of jobs.
To make sure that Americans are equipped to compete in the economy of
the future, the President has also taken steps to improve K–12 education
and to make college more accessible and affordable for middle-class families,
164 | Chapter 6
actions that should help to mitigate the long-term trend of growing income
inequality.
Jobs and Employment
The traditional pattern has been that as both the U.S. economy and
population have grown, so too has the number of jobs filled by American
workers. Between January 1980 and July 1990, from business-cycle peak to
business-cycle peak, total U.S. employment grew by an average of 151,000
net new payroll jobs a month; it grew even more quickly, at a rate of 178,000
payroll jobs a month, between July 1990 and March 2001, again from
business-cycle peak to business-cycle peak. But this long-term pattern of job
growth changed around the turn of the millennium. Between March 2001
and December 2007, the economy added a monthly average of only 68,000
total jobs and only 50,000 private-sector jobs. U.S. job creation slowed
even as productivity growth remained relatively strong, and even as other
developed countries, such as the United Kingdom and Canada, maintained
robust job growth.
Against this backdrop of weak employment growth beginning in
about 2000, the economy fell into recession in December 2007 and began
to shed jobs at the end of 2008 at a rate unprecedented in the postwar era.
-900
-600
-300
0
300
600
900
1,200
Jan-1980 Jan-1985 Jan-1990 Jan-1995 Jan-2000 Jan-2005 Jan-2010
Thousands
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 6-1
Monthly Change in Private-Sector Employment, 1980–2012
Jan-12
Note: The large fluctuations in private-sector employment in 1983 were due to strike
activity. Shading denotes recession.
Jobs and Income: Today and Tomorrow | 165
During 2008 and 2009, the economy lost an average of 361,000 jobs a month,
reaching a high of 818,000 jobs in January 2009. As the recession continued,
the unemployment rate doubled, from 5.0 percent in April 2008 to a peak of
10.0 percent in October 2009, a rate not seen since 1983 (Figure 6-2).
Soon after the President signed the American Recovery and
Reinvestment Act (Recovery Act) on February 17, 2009, the pace of job loss
slowed. The private sector has added jobs in each of the past 23 months, registering
a cumulative gain of 3.7 million jobs since February 2010, including
2.1 million jobs in 2011. Private-sector job growth has averaged 159,000 jobs
per month since February 2010, and 218,000 jobs per month in the last three
months (ending in January 2012).
The recession has had a large and continuing negative fiscal impact on
State and local governments, however, and they continue to shed workers,
thus offsetting some of the private-sector job growth. Nonetheless, with the
support provided by the Recovery Act and by the payroll tax cut and unemployment
insurance extensions contained in the Tax Relief, Unemployment
Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010, the U.S. economy
has added jobs in every month since February 2010, excluding temporary
Census hires. The continuing recovery has brought the unemployment rate
down from a peak of 10.0 percent in October 2009 to 8.3 percent in January
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Jan-1980 Jan-1985 Jan-1990 Jan-1995 Jan-2000 Jan-2005 Jan-2010
Percent
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 6-2
Unemployment Rate, 1980–2012
Jan-12
Note: Shading denotes recession.
166 | Chapter 6
2012. The 0.9 percentage point decline in the unemployment rate that
occurred in 2011 is the largest in any calendar year since 1994.
The pace of the recovery has varied across sectors of the economy,
with those sectors most harmed by the financial crisis the slowest to recover.
Since February 2010, when the private sector began consistently adding
jobs, job growth has been strong in industries such as education and health
services (+717,000 jobs as of January 2012); trade, transportation, and utilities
(+683,000 jobs); and manufacturing (+400,000), but is still weak in some
sectors, notably construction (+43,000 jobs) and State and local government
(-456,000 jobs). The continued weakness in these two sectors reflects the
severity of the financial crisis and the recession’s impact on the housing
market and on government revenues.
The pace of recovery has also differed across demographic groups.
The Hispanic unemployment rate reached a peak of 13.1 percent twice, first
in August 2009 and then again in November 2010. The unemployment rate
for African Americans reached 16.7 percent in March 2010 and then again as
recently as August 2011. The unemployment rates for Hispanics and African
Americans as of January 2012 are well below their respective peaks—down
2.6 percentage points for Hispanics and 3.1 percentage points for African
Americans—but still remain elevated.
Trends in the labor force participation rate and in the employmentto-
population ratio that pre-date the recession, and were exacerbated by the
recession, are a continuing concern. After trending upward for most of the
post-World-War-II period, largely because of increases in the fraction of
women in the labor force, the participation rate has been in a secular decline
since the late 1990s, driven by declining participation of Americans between
the ages of 16 and 54, as well as by the aging of the workforce. These same
developments have also lowered the employment-to-population ratio. The
labor force participation rate fell further in the recession. As discussed in
Chapter 2, many of those who have left the labor force since the beginning
of the recession have enrolled in school.
Extended unemployment insurance benefits have encouraged workers
who lost their jobs through no fault of their own to keep searching for
work, thereby maintaining a connection to the labor force. Helping more
Americans get back to work more quickly remains the top priority of the
Administration’s economic policy. That is why, in September 2011, President
Obama proposed the American Jobs Act to support and speed up the ongoing
recovery for American workers and their families. More recently, the
President’s 2012 State of the Union Address and Fiscal Year 2013 Budget
laid out a blueprint for an economy built to last on American manufacturing,
American energy, skills for American workers, and American values.
Jobs and Income: Today and Tomorrow | 167
The Dynamics of Labor Market Trends
Underlying the changes in employment is a dynamic process through
which firms are born and die, jobs are gained and lost, and workers transition
in and out of employment and between jobs. These labor market
dynamics have strong cyclical properties that have been very much at work
during and since the recession, but secular trends are also changing the
functioning of the U.S. labor market over the long run.
Job Dynamics
The job market is dynamic, with new firms entering and others exiting,
and some growing and others contracting. The dynamic job market is
supported by a safety net that helps to protect workers when job transitions
do not occur smoothly and that gives entrepreneurs a backstop when they
take risks with potentially high payoffs in future productivity. The importance
of the many facets of the safety net is discussed in detail in Chapter 7.
These job dynamics are characterized by gross flows of job gains
and job losses across firms. Gross job gains are measured as jobs created in
new and expanding firms, while gross job losses are measured as jobs that
disappear in firms that are contracting or closing.1 Net job growth in a given
period is the difference between gross job gains and gross job losses:
where
and NETt is the net number of jobs created by firms in the economy in
period t; Gt is the amount of gross job gains in the period; Lt is the amount
of gross job losses; i is a firm; C is the set of firms that are either new or have
grown in period t; D is the set of firms that have either exited or contracted
in period t; and N is the number of jobs.
To calculate the rates of net job growth, gross job gains, and gross job
losses, each of these values is divided by overall employment in the economy
1 Alternative measures of gross job gains and gross job losses use units of observation other
than the firm, such as the establishment, generally a physical location of business activity where
goods and services are produced. Using units smaller than firms leads to higher rates of gross
gains and losses because jobs that flow across the units within a firm are counted in the gross
measures.
168 | Chapter 6
averaged between one period and ,the next period. So, for example, the rate
of gross job gains in period t is:2
Recent work by economists using the Business Dynamic Statistics
(BDS) data at the U.S. Census Bureau demonstrates the tremendous dynamism
of private-sector employment in the United States (Haltiwanger,
Jarmin, and Miranda 2010; Haltiwanger 2011). Between 1980 and 2009 (the
most recent year of BDS data), approximately 17 percent of all jobs in the
private sector in an average year were added in that year at new or expanding
firms; approximately 15 percent of jobs in an average year were gone by the
next year because firms closed or contracted. While both large and small
firms contribute to gross job gains and losses, small firms tend to gain and
lose jobs disproportionately and to account disproportionately for net job
growth.
Recent research suggests that an important part of the explanation
for the disproportionate amount of both gross job gains and gross job losses
accounted for by small firms is that they tend to be young. Put differently,
startups and other young firms drive the large rates of job gains and losses
in small firms. Between 1980 and 2009, for example, 18.2 percent of overall
gross job gains each year were in new firms—mostly small new firms—even
though new firms accounted for only 3.1 percent of employment (Data
Watch 6-1). These numbers make clear the importance and contribution of
America’s entrepreneurs to the dynamism of the economy.
The annual average rates of job gains and losses between 1980 and
2009 mask two important features of heterogeneity across time—secular,
or long-term, trends, and cyclical patterns. The rates of both gross gains
and gross losses have been declining over time. Whereas, on average, 18.2
percent of private-sector jobs in the 1980s were newly created positions
in startups or expanding firms, gross job gains fell to 16.8 percent of total
private-sector employment in the 1990s and to 15.8 percent between 2000
and 2009 (Figure 6-3). Similarly, gross job losses were slightly more than
16.2 percent of overall private-sector employment in the 1980s but fell to
14.9 percent in the 1990s and then remained largely the same between 2000
and 2009. These secular declines also are apparent when one focuses more
narrowly on startups. Gross job gains from startups accounted, on average,
2 The data on U.S. firms capture gross flows over a 12-month period beginning and ending
in March. So, for example, the rate of job gains in year t=2009 refers to information on jobs
gained in firms between March 2008 and March 2009.
Jobs and Income: Today and Tomorrow | 169
Data Watch 6-1: Measurement of Startups
Research based on a new Census Bureau data set called the
Longitudinal Business Database (LBD) has led to new discoveries about
the important role that startups play in creating jobs. The LBD contains
annual information on virtually the entire universe of U.S. nonfarm
private businesses that paid Federal payroll and income taxes between
1976 and 2009, and it will continue to be updated as new data become
available.
LBD data are available both at the level of the firm—a measurement
unit combining all of the economic activity of a business that
occurs under common operational control—and at the level of individual
establishments—physical locations of economic activity where
goods and services are produced. The initial data are derived from
quarterly Internal Revenue Service filings that are compiled by the
Census Bureau and augmented with data collected through the Census
Bureau Economic Censuses and business surveys. The final LBD data set
contains annual information on payroll, employment size, industry, and
other key economic variables for both firms and establishments.
One of the key advances of the LBD is its ability to track the
births and deaths of firms. When a new economic entity is reported in
the administrative sources used to create the LBD, the Census Bureau
determines whether that new economic entity is a new firm, a new establishment
that is part of an existing firm, or an establishment that has
undergone a change in legal form because of a merger, change in ownership,
or some other similar change. Through this process, the Census
Bureau is able to identify essentially all new private payroll startups.
The creation of the LBD has allowed researchers to study comprehensively
the process of private-sector job gains and losses. One of the
most important findings has been how important startups are to the
dynamism of the U.S. economy. For example, Haltiwanger, Jarmin, and
Miranda (2010) find that about 2.5 million net new private-sector jobs
were gained in 2005. Firm startups created nearly 3.5 million net new
jobs in that year, while all other firms together lost about 1 million jobs
on net.
More information on the LBD is available from the Census
Bureau at http://www.ces.census.gov/index.php/bds/bds_home. The
Bureau of Labor Statistics has produced a separate database, the
Business Employment Dynamics (BED), which tracks gross quarterly
job gains and losses; more information about the BED is available at
http://www.bls.gov/bdm.
170 | Chapter 6
for 3.6 percent of the overall number of private-sector jobs in the 1980s but
for only 2.7 percent between 2000 and 2009.
The rates of gross job gains and losses exhibit not only secular declines
but cyclical patterns as well. Gross job gains are procyclical, increasing in
expansions and declining in recessions, whereas gross job losses are countercyclical,
increasing during recessions and declining in expansions. In the
depths of the recent recession, gross job losses rose sharply, but the decline
in gross job gains was even more notable.
An alternative data set produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics
(BLS) offers more frequent and more recent data than the BDS. The Business
Employment Dynamics (BED) reports quarterly data on payroll employment
at the level of the Employer Identification Number (EIN). An EIN is
a tax-reporting construct rather than an economic construct, but the unit
of observation in the BED consists in most cases of all of the operations of
a particular firm located within a given U.S. state. Movements in gross job
gains and losses in the BED on an annualized basis since its 1990 inception
are broadly similar to those in the BDS; most important, the BED also shows
a trend decline in gross gain and loss rates since 2000.
The quarter-to-quarter movements shown in Figure 6-4, which are
based on BED data through the second quarter of 2011 (the most recent
quarter of data available), show a large increase in the rate of gross job
losses toward the beginning of the recession; the rate reached a peak in the
0
5
10
15
20
25
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Percent of total U.S. private-sector jobs
Figure 6-3
BDS Estimates of Annual Gross Job Gain and Loss Rates, 1980–2009
Gross jobs gained
Gross jobs lost
Source: Census Bureau.
Note: Shading denotes recession.
Jobs and Income: Today and Tomorrow | 171
first quarter of 2009, and then returned to approximately the pre-recession
trend by the beginning of 2010. The BED data also show a precipitous fall
in the rate of gross job gains during the recession, and although that decline
reversed and gross job gains exceeded gross job losses by the second quarter
of 2010, the gains so far have resulted in too few new jobs to accommodate
the large number of individuals who lost jobs in the 2007–09 recession.
Now that researchers have documented the long-term secular slowdown
in job gains and losses, the underlying reasons for the slowdown and
its implications for the future of the U.S. economy are fast becoming the
subject of an active debate. One possible reason for the slowdown in job
reallocation is the aging of the population. Older workers may be less likely
to become entrepreneurs, and research has documented a positive correlation
between worker age and job tenure (Davis et al. 2007; Krueger 2010).
But while the U.S. population is indeed aging, it is and will remain much
younger than the population in the countries of Western Europe. So, to the
extent that aging can explain part of the slowdown in job flows in the United
States, other countries can be expected to experience slowdowns as well.
Further research is needed to better understand the secular trends in job
flows in the United States, and international comparisons could be helpful
in this regard.
Because of the importance of entrepreneurship to the vitality of the
economy, the President last year launched Startup America, a national
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1990:Q1 1994:Q1 1998:Q1 2002:Q1 2006:Q1 2010:Q1
Percent of total U.S. private-sector jobs
Figure 6-4
BED Estimates of Quarterly Gross Job Gain and Loss Rates,
1990–2011
Gross jobs gained
Gross jobs lost
SouSroceu: rDceep:a rtment of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
2011:Q2
Note: Shading denotes recession.
172 | Chapter 6
campaign to improve the environment for high-growth entrepreneurs by
expanding their access to capital and connecting them with mentors, helping
the Nation’s veterans start businesses, reducing barriers to entrepreneurship,
and fostering entrepreneurship in communities.
Worker Flows
The reallocation of jobs across firms is accompanied by the flows of
individual workers between firms and in and out of employment. Overall,
the net change in employment at a firm must by definition equal the difference
between the firm’s hires and separations. But the rates of worker
flows are larger than the rates of job reallocation: a firm may maintain stable
employment (no gross job gains or losses) from one year to the next while
having many individual workers come and go from within its employee
ranks.
On a monthly basis, flows of workers into firms (hires) and out of
firms (separations) are large. As captured since December 2000 in the BLS
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, hires and separations have both
averaged more than 4.7 million a month and have tended to track each other
closely over time. As Figure 6-5 illustrates, firm hires and separations before
the start of the recession in 2007 were notably below the levels observed
before the start of the 2001 recession.
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
Jan-2001 Jan-2003 Jan-2005 Jan-2007 Jan-2009 Jan-2011
Thousands
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 6-5
Hires and Separations, 2001–2011
Separations
Hires
Nov-11
Note: Shading denotes recession.
Jobs and Income: Today and Tomorrow | 173
As the U.S. economy fell into recession in December 2007, worker
flows slowed notably, with large monthly declines in the number of separations,
and even more precipitous monthly declines in the number of hires.
A decline in separations during a recession may seem counterintuitive, but
it is attributable to a large decline in the frequency of workers quitting their
jobs; quits are usually a sign of workers leaving jobs voluntarily for better
opportunities. So while layoffs were increasing over this period, the decline
in quits swamped the increase in layoffs. Overall, the economy on net was
shedding jobs at a very fast pace during the recession because the decline in
hiring in absolute numbers was larger than the decline in separations. Hires
and separations both began to rise in the second quarter of 2010, but both
remained below pre-recession levels at the end of 2011.
One can also study flows of workers into and out of employment,
unemployment, and the labor force. Perhaps most important over time are
the flows into and out of unemployment, which can be calculated using
the Current Population Survey (CPS). Because of the structure of the CPS,
in any given month three-quarters of the sample members have also been
interviewed in the previous month, making it possible to use these repeat
respondents to follow transitions into and out of unemployment. The BLS
has been constructing these flows each month since 1990 in a manner
that also matches up with the level of reported unemployment. Figure 6-6
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Feb-1990 Feb-1994 Feb-1998 Feb-2002 Feb-2006 Feb-2010
Inflow rate
Outflow rate
Percent
Figure 6-6
Flows into and out of Unemployment as Percent of the Labor Force,
1990–2012
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Jan-12
Note: Shading denotes recession.
174 | Chapter 6
displays the extent of inflows and outflows as a percent of the total labor
force for each month from the start of 1990 through January 2012.
Although the BLS labor force flow series goes back only to 1990 and is
dominated by strong cyclical movements, the data in Figure 6-6 through the
end of 2007 suggest a secular decline in both the inflow and outflow rate. A
similar decline has also been documented elsewhere (see, for example, Davis,
Faberman, and Haltiwanger 2006) for years before 1990, using alternative
methods of calculating unemployment inflows and outflows. As with job
flows, the aging of the population may account for some of these secular
declines, because older workers tend to leave jobs less often than younger
workers and, when they do, are more likely to leave the labor force permanently.
But the declining flows into and out of unemployment also may
reflect other forces that have lowered the rates of gross job gains and losses
over the past three decades.
As the recession began, monthly inflows and outflows from unemployment
both stood at approximately 2.4 percent of the labor force. Both
began to rise steeply, but the inflow rate rose more quickly than the outflow
rate, increasing the unemployment rate to levels not seen in approximately
30 years. Put differently, both the increase in the monthly average probability
of a worker entering unemployment and the decrease in the monthly
average probability of an unemployed worker exiting unemployment have,
as in a typical recession, contributed to the observed rise in unemployment
(Elsby, Michaels, and Solon 2009). Since March 2009, unemployment inflow
and outflow rates, measured as a share of the labor force, each have been
over 3 percent. Because the outflow rate was notably higher than the inflow
rate near the end of 2011, the unemployment rate has fallen.
The labor market is still recovering from the cyclical impacts of the
recession. And it is still subject to the long-term slower trend in gross job
gains and losses, as well as to the long-term decline in the share of the population
that is employed. In the face of these trends, the Administration has
pursued and continues to pursue robust policies to foster faster job creation
in the short run, as well as an economic environment in which existing
firms have reasons to increase employment, new firms are able to grow and
innovate, and workers can find satisfying employment.
Earnings and Income Mobility over the Career and between
Generations
Although the Nation’s labor market is highly dynamic in terms of
worker flows, the United States has had low rates of income mobility for
decades, both across the career and across generations.
Jobs and Income: Today and Tomorrow | 175
Low rates of income mobility across the career are especially notable
for men, whose higher rates of labor force attachment make them much
less likely than women to have years with zero earnings. Kopczuk, Saez, and
Song (2010) show that the annual earnings of a man averaged across 11 years
early in his working career are highly predictive of his annual earnings averaged
across 11 years later in his working career. For example, a man in one
of the bottom two quintiles of the income distribution early in his lifetime
has less than a 10 percent chance of rising to the top quintile 20 years later.
Family (or individual) incomes in one generation are also highly
correlated with family (or individual) incomes in the next generation. In
other words, the children of parents who are poor are more likely than
the children of well-off parents to be poor when they grow up. A common
measure of mobility across generations is the intergenerational elasticity
(IGE) of earnings or income, which is defined as the percentage difference
in a child’s income associated with a 1 percent difference in the parent’s
income.3 These IGE estimates are sensitive to several measurement issues,
particularly fluctuations in incomes from year to year. Studies based on U.S.
data that deal appropriately with these measurement issues suggest that
plausible estimates of the average IGE between fathers and sons are between
0.4 and 0.6. An IGE of 0.4 means that if one father earned 20 percent more
than another over their lifetime, the first father’s son on average would earn
8 percent more than the second father’s son; an IGE of 0.6 means that the
first father’s son would earn 12 percent more on average than the second
father’s son. That is, the higher the IGE is, the lower economic mobility is
between the generations.
Data limitations make it difficult to infer whether the IGE or the correlation
between parents’ and children’s income has changed significantly
over time (Data Watch 6-2). Lee and Solon (2009) conclude that the IGE in
the United States was fairly stable for cohorts born between 1952 and 1975,
while Aaronson and Mazumder (2008) present evidence suggesting that it
has increased in the past 30 years, implying that intergenerational mobility
has fallen. None of the available research has suggested a decline in the IGE
over time. Moreover, the widening of income inequality has meant that it is
harder for someone born into the bottom to move to the middle or the top
of the income distribution.
The high degree of persistence in incomes between generations in the
United States is especially noteworthy in the context of cross-country comparisons.
Corak (2011) makes such a comparison and finds that the average
3 IGEs most commonly have been estimated as the regression coefficient resulting from a
linear regression of the logarithm of the income (or earnings) of a child on a measure of the
logarithm of income (or earnings) of a parent or family.
176 | Chapter 6
estimated IGE of 0.47 for men in the United States, while lower than the IGE
for countries such as the United Kingdom (0.50) and South Africa (0.69),
is much higher than the IGE for men in countries such as Sweden (0.27),
Norway (0.17), Finland (0.18), and Denmark (0.15). Jäntti et al. (2006) also
compare IGEs for men’s incomes in some of the same countries and report
similar estimates.4
While many factors contribute to cross-country differences in intergenerational
mobility, one clear pattern is that countries with more intergenerational
mobility also tend to have lower point-in-time income inequality.
Figure 6-7 plots the relationship across 13 industrialized countries between
the IGE of the earnings of fathers and sons as reported in Corak (2011)
4 One exception is that Jäntti et al. report a somewhat lower IGE (0.31) for the United
Kingdom, below that of the United States but still well above those in Nordic countries.
Following the literature, this discussion focuses on IGEs for men, because in many countries
the inconsistent labor force participation of women complicates the estimation of their IGEs.
Data Watch 6-2: Intergenerational Mobility
One measure of opportunity is the extent to which children grow
up to live in better economic and social circumstances than their parents.
While there has been useful research on this topic, data limitations
have hampered attempts of economists and other social scientists to
measure the extent of intergenerational mobility. Researchers interested
in intergenerational mobility in the United States most commonly have
used one of two nationally representative surveys to assess the relationships
between the income and occupations of children and those of
their parents—the Panel Study of Income Dynamics or the National
Longitudinal Survey. Neither of these surveys was designed specifically
to address questions concerning intergenerational mobility, however,
and the lack of precision resulting from the relatively small numbers of
people surveyed makes it difficult to discern trends in economic mobility.
Grusky and Cumberworth (2010) have suggested that, if organized
into an administrative database with strict confidentiality protections,
information gleaned from U.S. tax records could allow researchers
to gain a much fuller picture of the evolution of earnings and career
outcomes between generations. Mazumder (2005) has taken a step
in this direction, using data from the Survey of Income and Program
Participation linked to Social Security earnings records to study the relationship
between parents’ earnings and the later earnings of their adult
sons. He finds that the intergenerational elasticity of earnings is around
0.6, which is larger than had been found in previous studies, probably
because he had access to more accurate earnings histories.
Jobs and Income: Today and Tomorrow | 177
and the Gini coefficient of after-tax 1985 income as reported in the OECD
statistical database. The Gini coefficient, shown along the horizontal axis of
the figure, is a common measure of income inequality; higher values mean
higher levels of income inequality. Higher IGEs along the vertical axis mean
less intergenerational mobility. The United States appears in the upper right
part of Figure 6-7, indicating both high inequality and low intergenerational
mobility.
As other research has shown, the finding of a positive relationship
between IGE and inequality—a relationship that Krueger (2012) has referred
to as “the Great Gatsby Curve”—is robust to alternative choices of countries,
intergenerational mobility measures, and year in which income inequality is
measured (see, for example, Corak 2011; Andrews and Leigh 2009; OECD
2010). This robust relationship suggests that at least some of the same mechanisms
that drive income inequality also drive intergenerational mobility.
For example, a rise in the rate of return to schooling can be expected to lead
to both a rise in point-in-time income inequality and a decline in intergenerational
mobility because educational attainment is positively correlated
across generations.
The educational system also may contribute to the pattern in Figure
6-7. Research has found a strong negative correlation between spending
on public education and IGEs across countries (Ichino, Karabarounis, and
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4
Intergenerational earnings elasticity
Source: Corak (2011) and OECD.
Figure 6-7
The Great Gatsby Curve: Inequality and Intergenerational Mobility
United Kingdom United States
Spain
France
Japan
Canada
New Zealand
Germany
Sweden
Finland
Norway
Denmark
Gini coefficient (1985)
Italy
178 | Chapter 6
Moretti 2011). This pattern suggests that public investments in supporting
children may help to reduce persistent inequality across generations.
Similarly, the OECD has concluded that educational policies ranging from
support for early childhood education to measures that support postsecondary
education for students from low-income backgrounds can increase
intergenerational income mobility (OECD 2010). As discussed later in this
chapter, the Administration has taken multiple steps to improve the quality
of education and to provide opportunities for all students to earn a postsecondary
credential or degree.
Overall Trends in Income and Rising Inequality
Irrespective of the persistence in income across generations, the rungs
on the ladder of the income distribution in the United States have moved
farther apart, and income growth has been stagnant for the middle class for
a decade.
One indicator of the evolution of income over time is annual real
median household income, which rose in the United States from the late
1960s through the late 1990s, was stagnant in the first part of the 2000s, and
then, as is typical during recessions and their aftermath, fell between 2007
and 2010 (the last year for which data are available).
50.3
47.3
45.6
44.2
42.2
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Percent
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; CEA calculations.
Figure 6-8
Percent of Households with Annual Income
within 50 Percent of the Median
Jobs and Income: Today and Tomorrow | 179
Rising income inequality is another major development in the United
States economy (see, for example, Autor, Katz, and Kearney 2008; Card
and DiNardo 2002; CEA 1997). Growing dispersion of household incomes,
a manifestation of growing dispersion of earnings, means that fewer and
fewer households have incomes in the middle band of the income distribution.
This can be seen clearly in Figure 6-8. In 1970, just over 50 percent of
households had incomes within 50 percent of the median; that share fell to
just over 44 percent in 2000 and to just over 42 percent in 2010.
Another way to look at changes in the distribution of income is to
examine the rates of income growth for households at different income levels.
A report released by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) in October
2011 examines real growth in after-tax (and transfer) household income
from 1979 through 2007 across quintiles and the top 1 percent of the income
distribution. Figure 6-9, reproducing information from the CBO report,
provides stark evidence of the rise in inequality, showing that real after-tax
incomes grew by just 18 percent over nearly 30 years for those in the bottom
income quintile and rose only somewhat more rapidly for those in the
middle 60 percent of the distribution, but grew by a stunning 278 percent for
those in the top 1 percent of the distribution.
As a result of these divergent growth rates, increasingly more income
has been concentrated at the top and less at the bottom of the income distribution.
The CBO reports that the share of total after-tax household income
18 28 35 43
65
278
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Lowest
quintile
Second
quintile
Middle
quintile
Fourth
quintile
81st-99th
percentiles
Top 1 percent
Percent change
Source: Congressional Budget Office.
Figure 6-9
Growth in Real After-Tax Income, 1979–2007
180 | Chapter 6
for the bottom four income quintiles was lower in 2007 than it was in 1979,
and the share for those in the 81st to 99th percentiles was essentially flat.
For the top 1 percent, however, the share more than doubled, from almost 8
percent in 1979 to 17 percent in 2007.
Piketty and Saez (2003, 2010), using data and definitions of income
slightly different from the CBO report, focus on income inequality between
those at various places in the very top of the distribution and the rest of the
population. They find that the share of income prior to taxes and transfers
excluding capital gains going to the earners in the 90–95th percentile of the
distribution barely changed between 1979 and 2010 and that the share of
income going to those in the 95–99th percentiles rose from almost 13 percent
to about 16 percent. But the share of income going to the top 1 percent
of earners rose from 8 percent in 1979 to 18 percent in 2007, the highest it
had been since the Roaring Twenties, and it still stood at over 17 percent in
2010 (Figure 6-10).
Rising inequality has important implications in the context of low
rates of intergenerational mobility. As incomes become more unequal,
larger increases in household income are necessary for families to move
from a lower part of the income distribution to a higher part—for example,
from a level of household income that classifies a family as living in poverty
to one that puts it in the middle of the distribution. Low rates of economic
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1913 1923 1933 1943 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003
Figure 6-10
Share of Total U.S. Income Earned by Top 1 Percent, 1913–2010
Percent of total U.S. income
Note: Total income includes wages and salaries (including bonuses and stock-option
exercises), pensions, profits, farm income, dividends, interest, and rental income.
Source: Piketty and Saez (2003, 2010); authors provided an estimate for 2010 based on
partial returns.
Jobs and Income: Today and Tomorrow | 181
mobility across generations imply that children born in poverty are more
likely to remain in poverty as adults, while children born to higher-income
parents are more likely to have higher incomes as adults. As long as income
inequality is increasing, those adult children will find themselves even
farther away from the middle class than their parents were. Perhaps even
more worrisome, the Great Gatsby curve in Figure 6-7 suggests that a rise in
inequality for the current generation of families could lead to a slowdown in
economic mobility for the next generation.
The confluence of rising inequality and low economic mobility over
the past three decades poses a real threat to the future of the United States as
a land of opportunity. Social and economic mobility across generations are
at risk of declining unless concerted efforts are devoted to providing more
opportunities for those born into lower-income households.
Long-Term Unemployment
The upheaval in the labor market brought on by the recession that
started in late 2007 is primarily a cyclical phenomenon. A major challenge,
especially given the long-term changes in the labor market that were underway
even before the recession, is how to prevent these cyclical dislocations
from having permanent effects on workers’ prospects. This means that
pathways for the long-term unemployed to return to the workforce are a
particular priority The protracted high level of unemployment has led to
large numbers of long-term unemployed workers—those who have been
out of work for more than 26 weeks. Currently, 5.5 million workers—more
than two-fifths of all unemployed individuals—have been jobless for more
than 26 weeks, and over 1.8 million have been without a job for more than
two years.
Historically, as depicted in Figure 6-11, the share of the unemployed
that has been unemployed for more than 26 weeks has been quite cyclical,
starting at a relatively low point right before a recession, growing thereafter,
and usually peaking many months into the recovery before gradually declining.
Another useful measure of unemployment duration is the median duration—
the amount of time that the person in the middle of the distribution
has spent unemployed to date. Typically, this measure has been similarly
cyclical, and as a result of the 2007–09 recession it remains elevated at 21.1
weeks.
A long period of joblessness is obviously first and foremost a serious
hardship for the individuals involved. The loss of income due to unemployment
can wreak havoc on households’ finances, often necessitating liquidation
of savings. Households with unemployed members are more likely to
fall behind on their bills and to suffer foreclosure or bankruptcy; foreclosures
182 | Chapter 6
also can have adverse effects on the prices of neighboring homes. To help
the long-term unemployed keep their homes, the Administration created
a version of the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) for the
unemployed, called HAMP UP, in which unemployed homeowners were
given a three month forbearance period on their mortgage payments. In July
2011, this forbearance period was extended to 12 months.
Income losses associated with job loss can persist even after reemployment.
Recent research examined male workers age 50 or younger with
at least three years of tenure who lost their jobs in mass layoffs (defined as
employment decreases of at least 30 percent over two years at their place of
employment) between 1980 and 2005. The researchers concluded that job
displacement led to a loss of 1.7 years of earnings, on average, accumulated
over 20 years. Moreover, job displacement led to an average accumulated
earnings loss of 2.8 years if the job was lost when the unemployment rate was
above 8 percent, but the earnings loss was only half as large—1.4 years—if
the job was lost when the unemployment rate was below 6 percent (Davis
and von Wachter 2011).
In addition to the mortgage forbearance program mentioned above,
the Administration has supported the long-term unemployed by calling
for extended unemployment compensation, which provides much-needed
income to these workers and their families while the recipient searches for
work. As explained in Chapter 7, continued extensions of the Emergency
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan-1980 Jan-1985 Jan-1990 Jan-1995 Jan-2000 Jan-2005 Jan-2010
Percent
Figure 6-11
Median Duration of Unemployment and Long-Term Unemployed as a
Percent of Total Unemployed, 1980–2012
Long-term unemployed as a
percent of total unemployed
(left axis)
Weeks
Median duration of
unemployment
(right axis)
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Jan-12
Note: Shading denotes recession.
Jobs and Income: Today and Tomorrow | 183
Unemployment Compensation and Extended Benefits programs through
2012 are vital to those who remain unemployed. Additionally, the American
Jobs Act proposal for extending unemployment benefits also included significant
reforms to the unemployment insurance system designed to speed
the return of benefit recipients to work.
As part of his Fiscal Year 2013 Budget, the President is proposing
a $12.5 billion Pathways Back to Work Fund to provide employment
opportunities for vulnerable youth, low-income adults, and the long-term
unemployed, and an expanded community college initiative to support state
and community college partnerships with business to give workers the skills
employers need. The President also is proposing to streamline training and
employment services for dislocated workers, improving access to critical
supports for getting the unemployed back into employment.
Preparing for Tomorrow’s Labor Market
Even as the Administration remains focused on strengthening and
sustaining the recovery from the recession, the President continues to
address the longer-term challenges in the structure of the American economy
and labor market. To ensure that American workers are prepared to
meet the evolving needs of employers, the Nation’s education and training
system must provide the workers of tomorrow with the skills they will need
for the jobs of tomorrow. At the same time, jobs and workplaces also must
evolve to enable workers to fulfill family and other nonwork responsibilities
(Box 6-1). This section describes what the jobs of tomorrow are likely to
look like, why educating workers is a cornerstone of economic opportunity
and growth, and how the Administration’s policies are working to prepare
Americans for the jobs of tomorrow.
Education and the Workers of Tomorrow
The rise in wage and income inequality over recent decades is largely
attributable to long-lasting structural changes in the U.S. economy. Among
the changes are technological advances that have increased employer
demand for a relatively more highly educated workforce, a slowdown in
the expansion of educational attainment, and increased competition from
overseas for many lower-paid jobs. Another is a decline in the share of the
workforce covered by collective bargaining agreements and the decline in
the real value of the minimum wage, both of which historically helped protect
the wages of lower-paid workers.5
5 Extensive reviews of existing research can be found in Acemoglu and Autor (2011) and Autor
and Katz (1999).
184 | Chapter 6
Box 6-1: Work-Life Balance in the Jobs of Tomorrow
American household life has changed dramatically over the past
half century in ways that have caused many workers to face conflicts
between their work and personal lives. Women are now the majority
recipients of bachelor’s and advanced degrees and compose nearly 50
percent of the workforce. Families rely increasingly on women’s earnings
to make ends meet. In addition to managing care of children, both
men and women juggle elder caregiving responsibilities with work. In
2008, approximately 43.5 million Americans served as unpaid caregivers
to a family member over the age of 50. Workplace flexibility is also
important for older Americans themselves. In 2011, the first of the baby
boomers turned age 65. Workplace flexibility policies, such as part-time
work or job sharing, facilitate a phased retirement that helps older workers
transition slowly out of the workforce, allowing them to take care of
their health needs and maintain their economic security while moving
toward retirement.
Workplace flexibility can be expanded by increasing workers’
control over when, where, and how much they work. These goals can be
achieved through a variety of different arrangements that allow workers
to continue making productive contributions to the workforce while also
attending to family and other responsibilities. Arrangements range from
job sharing, to phased retirement of older workers, to telecommuting.
Workplace flexibility policies not only help employees balance work and
family responsibilities but also can improve employers’ bottom lines.
As in all business decisions, the critical considerations for employers
in adoption of flexible workplace policies are the benefits and costs.
Almost one-third of firms cite costs or limited funds as obstacles to
implementing workplace flexibility arrangements. On the benefit side,
however, as documented in CEA (2010), these practices can reduce
turnover and improve recruitment, increasing the productivity of
an employer’s workforce. Moreover, flexible workplace practices are
associated with improved employee health and decreased absenteeism,
a major cost for employers. The CEA study estimated that wholesale
adoption of flexible workplace policies could save as much as $15 billion
a year through greater productivity, lower turnover, and reduced absenteeism.
Should more firms adopt such practices, the benefits to society,
in the form of reduced traffic, improved employment outcomes, and
more efficient allocation of workers to employers, could be even greater
than the gains to individual firms and workers (Galinsky et al. 2011).
Although the academic literature has identified numerous benefits
from flexible workplace practices, along a variety of dimensions, the
Jobs and Income: Today and Tomorrow | 185
adoption rates for these practices differ across industries and employers
of different sizes. Goldin and Katz (2011) explored the prevalence
of flexible workplace arrangements across industries and found that,
although these practices are gaining in popularity, some industries lag
behind, in particular the business and financial sectors. Overall, the
CEA study reported that more than half of employers report allowing
some workers to periodically change their starting and quitting times.
However, only 28 percent of full-time workers and 39 percent of parttime
workers report actually having flexible work hours. Even if some
employers offer more flexible workplace arrangements, there remains
the concern that their employees may not be taking advantage of those
arrangements because either, in the case of unpaid leave, they cannot
afford to bring home a smaller paycheck, or, in the case of paid leave,
they are afraid to take leave for fear of missing out on advancements or
not being viewed as a “team player.”
A lack of data has hindered deeper understanding of the benefits
and costs of flexibility, as well as knowledge about who is taking advantage
of that flexibility. The largest, most detailed source of data, a survey
of employers, provides information on practices that is now three years
old and does not contain information for the smallest firms. The only
nationally representative data from workers are seven years old and
provide little information on the prevalence of flexible practices. While
the existing evidence has demonstrated a strong connection between
flexibility and productivity, additional research exploring the mechanism
through which flexibility influences worker’s job satisfaction and
firms’ profits would better inform policymakers and managers alike.
In the summer of 2012, the results of a module added to the American
Time Use Survey will provide expanded information about workplace
flexibility from the workers’ perspective. The module asks survey
respondents about their access to leave and flexible scheduling, how they
use such policies to balance their work and personal responsibilities, and
whether they fail to take advantage of existing policies because of a fear
of negative consequences. These data will add to the existing knowledge
base on workplace flexibility. Although the literature is small, the best
available evidence suggests that adoption of more flexible practices can
boost productivity, improve morale, and benefit the U.S. economy—all
while strengthening families.
186 | Chapter 6
Because these structural changes have shifted demand toward a workforce
with relatively more education, a substantial fraction of the overall
increase in wage and income inequality is related to a growing divergence in
earnings between those with more years of education and those with fewer
years of education, as depicted in Figure 6-12.
For example, in 2010, workers with a bachelor’s degree or higher
earned nearly twice as much as those with a high school degree, a premium
that has risen since 1980, when college graduates earned 45 percent more
than high school graduates. In fact, even long before the most recent recession,
the average real annual earnings of those with a high school degree or
less fell below the levels of the 1970s.
One important way to help stem the tide of rising inequality, and
potentially to ameliorate the effects of low intergenerational economic
mobility, is to increase the number of workers who obtain postsecondary
education and earn higher wages as a result. For this reason, President
Obama has set the ambitious goal of returning the United States, by 2020, to
the world’s top spot in the share of 25- to 34-year-olds with a college degree.
Increasing the number of workers who obtain postsecondary education
is also vital for meeting the changing skill needs of firms. The BLS
Employment Projections Program produces forecasts of employment by
industry, occupation, and education on an approximately biennial basis.
The industry employment forecasts are based on incorporating projections
of the size of the labor force into a model of output growth across
U.S. industries. These detailed industry employment forecasts are then
mapped into projections of employment growth by occupation, and then
into forecasts of growth in employment by education group. Beginning
with the newly released projections for 2010–20, the BLS is projecting
employment growth by education group by assigning to each occupation
the typical level of formal education needed to enter the occupation, and
then aggregating by education group the projected employment growth in
the occupations requiring that level of education. As shown in Figure 6-13,
the BLS projects that in the coming years, jobs requiring education beyond
a high school degree will grow by more than the average, while occupations
requiring at most a high school diploma will grow by less than the average.
For example, between 2010 and 2020, employment in jobs that require an
associate’s degree is projected to grow by 18.0 percent, 3.7 percentage points
more than the average projected employment growth of 14.3 percent. Much
of the divergence in employment growth across education groups is driven
by the projected growth of sectors such as health care and education that
intensively utilize workers in occupations that typically require education
beyond a high school diploma.
Jobs and Income: Today and Tomorrow | 187
Information that tracks the changing skill needs of firms can help
Americans make informed career decisions. In addition to the statistics published
by the BLS on existing and projected jobs by industry, occupation, and
education, the potential exists to harness new data sources to gain a deeper
understanding of what skills are in high demand. For example, the more
than 50 million U.S.-based members of LinkedIn, an online professional
networking company, typically provide to LinkedIn their job titles and the
companies they work for, and upon joining, many members also provide
information on their past work history. LinkedIn classifies members’ jobs
by industry and occupation, often at a more detailed level than is available
in government statistics. The resulting information can be used to track
changes over time in the industries and occupations in which LinkedIn’s
members work and to identify emerging sectors and job titles. LinkedIn’s
members are not a nationally representative sample of the U.S. workforce,
but because they tend to work in sectors of the economy that require higher
levels of education, the information embodied in the changing distribution
of the industries and occupations in which members are employed has the
potential to inform the decisions of individuals considering specific educational
and career paths.
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
1963 1972 1981 1990 1999 2008
Bachelor's degree or higher
Associate's degree or some college
High school degree
Less than high school
Note: The sample includes workers aged 25–65 who worked at least 35 hours a week and
for at least 50 weeks in the calendar year. Before 1992, education groups are defined based
on the highest grade of school or year of college completed. Beginning in 1992, groups are
defined based on the highest degree or diploma earned. Earnings are deflated using the
CPI-U. Calculations are based on survey data collected in March of each year and reflect
average wage and salary income for the previous calendar year.
Source: CEA calculations using March Current Population Survey
Dollars (2010)
Figure 6-12
Average Annual Earnings by Worker Education Level, 1963–2010
188 | Chapter 6
LinkedIn has produced initial tabulations from among its U.S. members
of the growth rate of employment in industries and occupations since
2007. These tabulations are for a longitudinal sample of individuals, based
on aggregated historical data from their resumes and other information that
they provide, LinkedIn reports that two of the fastest-growing industries
among their members between 2007 and 2011 were the Internet and oil
and energy; two of the fastest-shrinking industries were newspapers and
construction. Among the fastest-growing occupations were social media
(including jobs titles such as social media manager, social media marketing
manager, and social media specialist) and digital technology (including
digital producer, digital product manager, digital strategist, and digital sales
manager); LinkedIn reports that teachers and middle-management positions
were among the shrinking occupations.
One of the main drivers of the increasing relative demand for workers
with more education and training is the continuing shift toward using
machines or computers to perform the routine tasks once done by workers.
Although the BLS, assuming a continuation of these trends, projects that the
number of manufacturing jobs will decline between 2010 and 2020, the U.S.
manufacturing sector has added more than 400,000 net new jobs since the
beginning of 2010, the first sustained job growth in manufacturing since the
late 1990s.
-0.2
-2.1
3.2
2.6
3.7
2.2
7.4
5.6
-10 -5 0 5 10
Less than high school
High school diploma or equivalent
Some college, no degree
Postsecondary non-degree award
Associate's degree,
Bachelor's degree
Master's degree
Doctoral or professional degree
Percent change minus average percent change
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 6-13
Difference Between Projected Employment Growth Rate by Education
and Average Projected Employment Growth Rate, 2010-2020
Jobs and Income: Today and Tomorrow | 189
Some of the recent growth in manufacturing jobs is the direct result
of firms that are choosing to produce goods in the United States rather than
using overseas labor. The Administration is supporting this “insourcing”
with new tax proposals that eliminate tax advantages for moving jobs overseas
and reward companies that choose to invest in or bring jobs back to the
United States. In addition, the President has proposed measures to revitalize
the manufacturing sector. These measures include initiatives to help develop
and produce advanced technologies, ensuring clean energy technologies that
will fuel the 21st century economy are built in the United States; funding to
help catalyze partnerships between universities and industries to develop
new technologies for manufacturing products and processes; the creation
of a new Interagency Trade Enforcement Center to challenge unfair trading
practices; and tax incentives to promote job growth in communities hard-hit
by factory closings.
Increasing Educational Attainment
To prepare for the jobs of tomorrow, it is essential to invest in the
American workforce and to increase the number of young people who
attain a college degree. Meeting the President’s college completion goal for
25- to 34-year-olds requires investments in early, primary, and secondary
education to increase the number of students who are college-ready when
they graduate from high school. Meeting the goal also requires policies and
programs that make college more affordable and accessible.
Teachers in the Nation’s public schools are crucial to preparing children
for the jobs of tomorrow. During the depths of the recession, however,
many State and local governments were forced to make cuts, resulting in
the loss of more than 200,000 education jobs over the past three years. Had
it not been for the combined $40 billion in targeted assistance through the
Recovery Act’s State Fiscal Stabilization Fund and the Education Jobs Fund,
the cuts would have been worse: these programs provided the resources to
support 420,000 teacher job-years. Given the continued need to prevent
teacher layoffs and to rehire many of the teachers who lost their jobs during
the recession, the President’s FY 2013 Budget proposes a $25 billion teacher
stabilization fund.
The Administration also has made improving the quality of education
a priority and has taken an innovative approach, using grant competitions
and evaluations to fund promising practices and learn more about what
works, from early childhood education through high school. A key part
of this effort has been Race to the Top grants, established as part of the
Recovery Act. Competitive grants have been awarded to states to undertake
innovative reform in four areas of K–12 education: implementing rigorous
190 | Chapter 6
standards and assessments; using data to improve instruction and decisionmaking;
recruiting and retaining effective teachers and principals; and
turning around the lowest-performing schools. Race to the Top grants have
catalyzed widespread reform even in states that did not win an award.
In 2011, Race to the Top funds were also used for Early Learning
Challenge grants to promote evidence-based evaluation of programs,
develop strategies for families and parents to assess the quality of early learning
programs, and create age-appropriate curricula and assessment systems.
The Early Learning Challenge fund announced nine state grant winners in
December 2011. As with the K–12 Race to the Top competition, although
not all proposals were funded, the framework of providing competitive
grants to states to formulate their own solutions focused local conversations
on education reform. The Early Learning Challenge grants complement the
Administration’s major investments in improving a cornerstone of early
childhood education, the Head Start and Early Head Start programs, by
increasing funding by $2.1 billion in two years through the Recovery Act,
by nearly doubling the number of children and families served by Early
Head Start, and by taking key steps to increase Head Start Center program
quality and accountability. Notably, the Department of Health and Human
Services has begun implementing new regulations that, for the first time,
require current grantees that do not meet quality benchmarks to compete
for continued funding.
In addition to Race to the Top, the Administration has funded other
important innovations in education. The Investing in Innovation Fund supports
projects in K–12 education that test, validate, and scale up promising
strategies and interventions that raise overall student achievement, close
the achievement gap, and improve outcomes for high-need students. The
Promise Neighborhoods initiative supports cradle-to-career wraparound
services to improve educational outcomes for students in distressed highpoverty
neighborhoods. The President’s 2012 State of the Union Address
challenged all states to do what 21 states have already done: require all students
to graduate from high school or stay in school until age 18. Raising the
compulsory schooling age increases average educational attainment and, for
those induced to stay in school longer, leads to higher earnings when those
students become adults. In view of the positive externalities from schooling,
economists Milton and Rose Friedman wrote, “What kind of governmental
action is justified…? The most obvious is to require that each child receive
a minimum amount of schooling of a specified kind” (Friedman and
Friedman 1962).
The President has committed to continued investments in America’s
education system. Beyond making investments to help all students prepare
Jobs and Income: Today and Tomorrow | 191
for college, the Administration is working to make college affordable for
American families. In recent years, published college tuitions have risen
sharply, posing a threat to the Nation’s growing need for workers with
college-level skills. The Administration has made college accessibility and
affordability a top priority. Through the Recovery Act and the Health Care
and Education Reconciliation Act passed in 2010, the Administration raised
the maximum Pell Grant award from $4,731 in 2008 to $5,550 in 2010, and
the FY 2013 Budget calls for the maximum to increase to $5,635 for the
2013–14 school year. Some 8.1 million college students received an average
of $3,700 in Pell Grants in 2009–10. These figures are up sharply from the
year before President Obama took office, when 5.5 million college students
received an average of $2,650 apiece in Pell aid, and the President remains
committed to protecting these historic increases in Pell Grant awards.
In addition, the American Opportunity Tax Credit (AOTC), established
through the Recovery Act, provides up to $2,500 a year for college
tuition and related expenses for American families. Compared with the
Hope Scholarship that it largely replaces, the AOTC offers a higher maximum
benefit; can be claimed for up to four, rather than only two, years of
undergraduate education; has a higher income eligibility cutoff, making the
credit available to more middle-class families; and is partially refundable,
thereby also reaching lower-income families. This credit is estimated to have
benefited 9.4 million students and their families in 2011. In December 2010,
the President signed an extension of the AOTC through the end of 2012, and
his FY 2013 Budget request proposes to make the AOTC permanent.
Data from the College Board (2011) demonstrate the effectiveness
of these Administration initiatives to keep college affordable (see also CEA
2011). The estimated average net price for full-time students attending public
four-year institutions increased by only about $60 between 2007–08 and
2011–12, and the estimated average net price for full-time students attending
public two-year and private nonprofit four-year institutions actually fell.
To build on the successes of Pell expansions and the AOTC as well as
lessons from K–12 education reform, the President has proposed a Race to
the Top for College Completion and Affordability to make public colleges
more affordable and a better value and to drive reforms that will help more
students complete their degrees on time. The FY 2013 Budget also proposes
reforms to the distribution of campus based-aid to reward colleges that are
serving low-income students, setting tuitions responsibly, and offering a
quality education that prepares students to obtain employment and repay
their loans. Finally, the Budget proposes a new First in the World Fund that
introduces an evidence-based framework, modeled after the Investing in
Innovation initiative, to develop, validate, and scale up effective approaches
192 | Chapter 6
in higher education. (For a discussion of financing the cost of college, see
Economics Applications Box 6-1.)
Federally Supported Job Training
The education of workers does not end when they complete formal
schooling and enter the labor market. As the economy evolves, workers
often need to develop new skills to meet the changing demands of firms.
In many cases, firms partner with their workers to help them acquire new
skills, but for workers who have lost their jobs or are seeking to change fields
or careers, this option may not be available. Providing such workers with
opportunities for training is especially important in today’s economy given
the continued high rates of unemployment that are the direct result of the
recession, and it will remain important in ensuring a skilled workforce well
into the future.
The Federal Government funds two main training programs
for adults—the Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) program and the
Workforce Investment Act (WIA) formula grant program. The WIA Adult
and Dislocated Programs have by far the largest reach, serving 8.6 million
participants in 2010 (the most recent year for which data are available) at
a total annual cost of $3.8 billion.6 Created in 1998, the WIA system provides
reemployment and training services to adults who are economically
disadvantaged and to workers who have been displaced from their jobs.
Importantly, WIA moved the design and management of job training programs
to the local level by creating “one-stop” employment centers where
job seekers can access all employment services of the Department of Labor.
WIA provides both short-term services, including job search assistance and
basic skills assessments, and longer-term services that involve more substantial
career counseling as well as training services. Program participants work
with a case worker to choose the menu of services that best meets their needs,
although limited funds mean not all participants have access to all services
deemed appropriate. Research suggests that the average WIA participant
benefits from the program, although the quality of the services provided is
somewhat uneven. One recent study found that, on average, WIA training
programs for adults boosted employment and earnings, although there was
substantial variation across states and across participants depending on
which WIA program they were in and what kind of services they received
(Heinrich, Mueser, and Troske 2008). Growing evidence from studies of
state programs, particularly studies that track participants for a longer
6 Other smaller programs serving many fewer participants include the Employment Services
Program and the Adult Basic Education Program. In addition, WIA also has a small program
that serves economically disadvantaged youth.
Jobs and Income: Today and Tomorrow | 193
Economics Application Box 6-1: Calculating the Cost of College
The decision to attend college is one of life’s most important
decisions. Individuals with a college degree earn substantially more
throughout their working lives than otherwise similar non-degree holders,
on average, but the dollar costs of college can be high and many students
accumulate substantial debt. In addition, there is an “opportunity
cost” of college—students are unable to work for pay while performing
school-related tasks.
One key piece of information that a prospective student should
have is the actual dollar price of college that the student is likely to
pay. The published costs of a year of college do not tell the full story.
Many students receive Federal assistance, and individual colleges and
universities often have their own need-based aid programs, as well as
merit scholarships.
The Department of Education has two particularly useful tools for
prospective college students who would like to understand better what
they are likely to pay in tuition, room and board, expenses, and fees.
While the exact financial aid available to any particular student depends
on a number of factors including household size, household income, and
asset net worth, the Department of Education’s FAFSA4caster (http://
fafsa4caster.ed.gov/) can help students learn how much aid might be
available. Using the College Navigator tool (https://nces.ed.gov/collegenavigator/),
a prospective college student can learn how Federal, state
and local, and institutional aid affect net prices at specific colleges.
A menu-driven format allows a prospective student to select a college
or set of colleges (say, by geography or type of degree) and discover
the average net price paid by students of various income levels at each
college on the prospective student’s list. The average net prices across
schools can vary widely and can deviate substantially from the published
costs. For example, information from the College Calculator shows that,
for households with income between $48,000 and $75,000, the average
annual cost of attending one of the top ten national universities (as
ranked by U.S. News and World Report) in 2009–10 was $52,796. The
average net price for those who received aid at one of those institutions,
however, was a substantially lower $9,340. Meanwhile, large state
schools with much lower published costs than the private universities
can have higher net costs. For households in the $48,000–$75,000
income range that received aid, the average annual net cost (including
the costs of living on campus) in 2009–10 at the top ten largest public
universities was $13,486.
194 | Chapter 6
period of time, shows that training for adults can have large positive effects
on earnings. Combining classroom learning with more hands-on training
usually has led to the largest and most lasting impacts (Hotz, Imbens, and
Klerman 2006; Dyke et al. 2006).
The Trade Adjustment Assistance program was established in 1963
and has undergone numerous changes since its inception, but its basic purpose
remains to provide training to workers displaced as the result of foreign
competition. Eligible workers receive the same kinds of reemployment and
training services offered to WIA participants, but more generous funding
allows them to receive training for a longer period of time. Moreover, TAA
provides income supplements to regular unemployment insurance benefits
as well as an allowance for relocation. If the displaced worker is over 50 years
old and finds a new job paying less than $50,000 a year, TAA also provides
the worker the option to receive wage insurance in the amount of half the
difference between his or her old and new wage (up to a cap of $10,000) for
up to two years.
Recognizing the importance of job training to American workers
and their families, the President has proposed a major initiative to provide
workers with the tools and skills they need to find new jobs—by forging new
partnerships between community colleges and businesses to train 2 million
skilled workers and by streamlining access to training and employment
services for dislocated workers.
The current system does not treat all workers who were dislocated
because of economic shifts equally. As noted above, workers in tradeimpacted
industries are eligible for extensive income support, training, and
reemployment services under the TAA, while those who lose their jobs for
other reasons receive less generous assistance. In this increasingly global
economy, it is difficult to distinguish between trade, technology, outsourcing,
consumer trends, and other economic shifts that cause displacement.
The President believes that dislocated workers should be able to access
a single program, visit a single location or go to a single web site to find
information about and assistance with job and training opportunities in
their community. Ensuring that displaced workers have the information and
training they need to successfully return to work is important not only for
those who have lost their jobs as a result of the 2007–09 recession, but also
for those who will be in need of these services in the future.
Jobs and Income: Today and Tomorrow | 195
Conclusion
The 2007–09 recession severely disrupted a labor market that was
already under stress from decades of rising inequality, stagnant middleclass
incomes, and weak job growth in the 2001–07 recovery period. The
job market has been recovering gradually since the end of the recession,
and the Administration continues to make strengthening and sustaining
the recovery in the job market a top priority. The policies proposed by the
Administration will promote continued economic growth and job creation
by supporting aggregate demand through an extension of the 2 percentage
point payroll tax cut, the continuation of extended unemployment insurance
benefits, investments in infrastructure, and assistance to states and localities
to retain school teachers and first responders. Investments in expanded
reemployment services and training for low-skilled and displaced workers
will help get Americans back to work. And the President’s proposals to
invest in elementary and secondary education and to make college more
affordable will lay the foundation for a stronger economy in the future.
197
C H A P T E R 7
PRESERVING AND MODERNIZING
THE SAFETY NET
Today’s dynamic, global economy, driven by rapid technological change,
offers abundant benefits and opportunities—but also entails many risks.
The Great Recession has made clearer than ever that a strong and flexible
economy requires a robust safety net to protect families against major risks
and to reduce the likelihood that temporary economic shocks will inflict
permanent harm on families and the economy.
In the first weeks after President Obama was inaugurated, the
President and the Congress enacted policies to expand and strengthen
the safety net in response to the ongoing economic crisis. The American
Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (the Recovery Act) provided
increased funding for a number of key safety net programs, including
unemployment insurance (UI), Temporary Assistance for Needy Families
(TANF), Medicaid, and the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC). These and
other safety net programs have been critical in cushioning American families
from the effects of the Great Recession and in stabilizing the economy
by supporting aggregate demand.
One way to gauge the impact of the safety net is to consider the number
of American families that would have been in poverty were it not for
the support provided by specific programs. These effects are significant. In
2010, the official poverty rate was 15.1 percent, which translates to roughly
46 million people living in poverty. According to U.S. Census Bureau estimates,
were it not for unemployment insurance benefits, 3.2 million more
Americans would have been in poverty in 2010. This figure includes about
2.3 million nonelderly adults, 900,000 children, and 100,000 adults age 65
and older. Among families participating in the program, the receipt of UI
benefits has the effect of cutting the poverty rate roughly in half (Gabe and
Whittaker 2011).
198 | Chapter 7
Data Watch 7-1: The Census Bureau’s Supplemental Poverty Measure
The official poverty measure was developed in the 1960s. According
to this measure, a family is considered to be poor if its before-tax income
falls below a “poverty line” that varies according to family size and
composition.
In 2011, the Census Bureau released an alternative to the official
poverty measure that presents a more complete picture of poverty and of
the effects of policies to support low-income families. This Supplemental
Poverty Measure (SPM), developed early in the Obama Administration,
is based on an approach recommended in 1995 by the National Academy
of Sciences. Like the official poverty measure, the supplemental measure
compares the resources available to a household with a threshold level of
income that takes into account household composition. It differs from
the official measure, however, both in how it calculates resources and in
how it sets the thresholds. The supplemental measure adds in-kind assistance
such as nutritional assistance and subsidized housing to household
resources and subtracts necessary expenses such as taxes, child care, and
other work-related expenses, as well as medical out-of-pocket costs. Its
thresholds are calculated differently than those for the official poverty
line, and they reflect geographic differences in housing costs.
Overall, 16.0 percent of all Americans were estimated to be in
poverty in 2010 according to the supplemental measure, compared with
15.2 percent using the official methodology.a Differences between the
two measures vary across demographic groups. For example, because
they disproportionately benefit from programs like the Earned Income
Tax Credit (EITC) and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program
(SNAP), children are more likely to be in poverty according to the official
measure, which does not account for support from these programs.
By contrast, the poverty rate for elderly Americans is higher according
to the supplemental measure, since unlike the official measure, it subtracts
out-of-pocket medical expenses from income.
The supplemental poverty measure allows researchers to isolate
more accurately the effects of a specific policy, source of income, or
category of expense on the prevalence of poverty. Among the programs
studied by the Census Bureau, the EITC has the largest antipoverty
effect; according to the supplemental measure, in the absence of the
tax credit, an additional 6.1 million people would have been in poverty
in 2010. Accounting for medical out-of-pocket expenses in the supplemental
measure, on the other hand, moved 10 million individuals into
poverty in 2010.
a This official estimate differs from the usual published rate (of 15.1 percent) as
unrelated individuals under 15 years of age are included in the universe.
Preserving and Modernizing the Safety Net | 199
The official definition of poverty does not account for the effect of
taxes paid and tax credits, such as the Earned Income Tax Credit. Nor does
it incorporate the value of in-kind benefits. As a result, the official measure
does not reflect the benefit that American families receive from the EITC
or important safety net programs, such as the Supplemental Nutrition
Assistance Program (SNAP), on the official poverty rate. However, such a
calculation is possible using an alternative measure of poverty, known as the
Supplemental Poverty Measure (Data Watch 7-1). Using the supplemental
measure, the Census Bureau estimated that in the absence of the EITC
another 6.1 million Americans, nearly half of them children, would have
been in poverty in 2010. In that same year, SNAP benefits lifted 2.9 million
adults and 2.2 million children out of poverty. Considered all together, it is
estimated that the social insurance and means-tested transfer programs that
make up the safety net reduce the number of Americans falling below the
poverty line by more than half (Ziliak 2011).
Safety net programs can improve economic efficiency by supplementing
private markets if they fail to provide adequate insurance against major
economic risks. A fundamental market failure common to both insurance
and annuity markets is adverse selection, which arises when consumers
know more than insurers about their own risk—their expected medical
claims, their likelihood of becoming unemployed, or their expected longevity
(Rothschild and Stiglitz 1976). If insurance or annuity contracts are
priced according to the average risk in a population, coverage will be attractive
to those who know that they are at high risk and unattractive to those
who know that they are at low risk. To the extent that high-risk consumers
are more likely to purchase insurance, the cost of coverage will rise, which
in turn will make coverage even less attractive to their low-risk counterparts.
The gravity of the adverse selection problem will vary across types of insurance
and, for a given type, across market segments. Some types of insurance,
such as unemployment insurance, have virtually no private market. Private
health insurance and annuity markets exist, though not without substantial
support from tax and regulatory policies; even with this support, coverage
remains costly and incomplete.
In addition to addressing specific types of market failure, a strong
safety net can promote growth and entrepreneurship. By providing a basic
level of security, well-designed safety net programs help create an environment
that encourages people to engage in value-creating activities such as
changing jobs or starting a new business. A strong safety net is especially
important in a global economy in which international trade and financial
integration can bring both substantial benefits and increased risk. Robust
cross-country evidence finds that economies that have stronger safety nets
200 | Chapter 7
also tend to pursue more efficient economic policies (Rodrik 1998). Safety
net programs also protect workers and their families from the labor market
disruptions that can arise from technological change and other sources of
fluctuation in demand. Finally, safety net programs can be an important
component of automatic stabilizers—providing expansions in aggregate
demand that help counteract the weakening of the economy during economic
downturns.
An effective and efficient safety net must adapt and evolve in response
to changes in technology and economic conditions. This chapter provides
an overview of the key components of the safety net in the United States,
emphasizing recent policy developments and proposals to keep the nation’s
safety net strong.
Unemployment Insurance
Unemployment insurance has long been an essential component of
the safety net for workers who have lost a job through no fault of their own.
In the recent period of high unemployment, the basic UI program and emergency
extensions have provided critical support for millions of American
families. In 2010, almost 10 percent of households received UI benefits—and
that share is expected to fall back toward the pre-recession average of about
4 percent as the economy recovers.
Unemployment insurance is a joint Federal-state program that covers
nearly all civilian workers. During normal economic times, workers
and employers contribute to state systems that pay benefits to unemployed
workers for up to 26 weeks. During periods of high unemployment,
extended benefits (EB) are available to workers who have exhausted regular
UI benefits, with the costs normally shared between the Federal Government
and states. Benefits are determined as a function of past wages, up to a cap.
Although key program parameters vary across states, on average UI benefits
replace roughly half of a recipient’s lost earnings. In 2011, the average weekly
benefit was roughly $300.
Historically the Federal Government has funded benefits for extended
periods while the economy recovers from a serious downturn. It did so
once during the 1950s, once during the 1960s, twice during the 1970s, and
once each during the early 1980s, the 1990s, and the early 2000s. In each
instance since the 1970s, extended benefits have been reauthorized, usually
multiple times, in reaction to continued weakness in the labor market. In
June 2008, Congress enacted the Emergency Unemployment Compensation
(EUC) Program that added 13 weeks of Federally funded UI benefits. As
the labor market continued to deteriorate, Congress extended the program
Preserving and Modernizing the Safety Net | 201
for workers in the hardest-hit states several times. In addition, starting in
February 2009, Congress provided full Federal funding of extended jobless
benefits. Together these policies allow workers in high-unemployment states
to qualify for up to 99 weeks of benefits.
The Economics of Unemployment Insurance
Unemployment insurance benefits enable workers to minimize disruptions
in spending caused by unanticipated income shocks (Baily 1978).
Economic research indicates that this consumption-smoothing effect is
important. According to one study, in the absence of UI, a typical family
whose household head becomes unemployed lowers spending on food by 22
percent, while a family receiving UI benefits spends only 7 percent less on
food (Gruber 1997). In addition to helping families whose income has been
reduced due to job loss, by providing income to families that they can spend,
UI benefits mitigate the impact of the recession on the broader economy.
These benefits must be weighed against the cost of longer spells of
unemployment potentially induced by the availability of UI—although in
the current environment, any effect on spell length is likely to be comparatively
small. Theoretical models of labor supply and job search predict that
unemployed workers covered by more generous UI systems can take longer
to find a new job (see, for example, Mortensen 1977). More recent work has
shown that it is important to distinguish among reasons why UI increases
the duration of unemployment. Traditionally, economists have interpreted
the relationship between UI and duration in the context of a worker’s choice
between work and leisure, assuming that UI reduces the effort devoted to
job search. An alternative view, given that a large fraction of unemployed
workers have limited assets, is that UI benefits allow workers to meet their
basic needs while they search for a job that is a good match for their talents
(Chetty 2008). Better matches generally translate to higher wages (leading
to higher tax revenues), increased job satisfaction, and greater employment
stability (which reduces employers’ hiring costs).
The empirical research literature on the relationship between UI benefits
and unemployment duration is sizable. Recent research suggests that
UI benefits have small effects on unemployment duration even when the
economy is strong (Card and Levine 2000). In periods of high unemployment,
the consumption-smoothing benefit of UI will be especially valuable
to workers, and any negative effects on worker search effort will be less
important because of the scarcity of jobs (Kroft and Notowidigdo 2011;
Schmieder, von Wachter, and Bender 2012). Consistent with this premise,
research suggests that the recent expansion of extended and emergency benefits
has had a minimal effect on the duration of unemployment spells and
202 | Chapter 7
the unemployment rate (Farber and Valletta 2011; Rothstein 2011; Daly et
al. 2012). Moreover, to the extent that the extension of benefits has affected
the measured unemployment rate, it has done so not by reducing the probability
that unemployed workers look for and find jobs, but by reducing
the number of unemployed workers who have given up on searching for
a new job (Rothstein 2011). This finding is important in light of evidence
suggesting that during periods of high unemployment, many older workers
who exhaust their UI benefits end up applying for Social Security Disability
Insurance (Rutledge 2011).
Recent Trends in UI Receipt and Its Effect on Household Income
The share of households receiving UI rose from 4.1 percent in 2007
to 9.6 percent in 2010. Over the same period, the average annual amount
received by households benefiting from UI rose from $4,400 to $8,340,
mainly because of longer duration of benefit receipt but also because of the
extra $25 in weekly benefits provided through FY 2010 by the Recovery Act.
This money was crucial to keeping many families in their homes and able to
pay other household expenses. As noted, UI lifts millions of families out of
poverty. However, because a large share of benefits flows to middle-income
workers, these antipoverty effects understate the economic impact of the
program on participants. Households that received UI benefits in 2010 had a
median income of $55,000 the previous year, which is only slightly less than
the median income of working households that did not receive UI. Among
all recipients, UI payments represented 23 percent of household income
in 2010. The share of income represented by UI ranged from 15 percent
for multiple-earner households without children to almost 36 percent for
households with a single worker and no children (Figure 7-1).1
In addition to providing income insurance to families of unemployed
workers, the UI system helps the economy as a whole (Auerbach
and Feenberg 2000). Unemployment insurance is an automatic stabilizer
that leans against the negative cycle of increased unemployment leading to
reduced consumption, which leads to a further decline in economic activity.
Since unemployed workers tend to spend rather than save their benefits, the
impact on aggregate demand is fairly immediate. Because of the way that
the emergency and extended benefits programs increase economic activity,
they generate partially offsetting income and payroll tax revenues for the
Federal Government and help state and local budgets by increasing sales
tax revenues. In addition, without the income support provided by these
1 Because previous research suggests that recipients tend to understate the amount of
unemployment benefits they receive (Meyer, Mok, and Sullivan 2009), these figures can be seen
as lower-bound estimates of the effect of UI on household income.
Preserving and Modernizing the Safety Net | 203
programs, more families would draw on other public programs. For these
reasons, the Congressional Budget Office notes that extending UI benefits
is the most timely and cost-effective policy for increasing economic activity
and employment (CBO 2011).
Policy Innovations
The U.S. unemployment insurance system dates to the Great
Depression of the 1930s. Originally, most covered workers were employed
in manufacturing. At its inception, the UI system allowed for income
smoothing for workers who would ultimately return to their old job or one
like it. Research based on data from the early 1980s suggests that at that time
60 percent of UI spells ended with the worker being recalled to his or her
original job (Corson and Nicholson 1983; Katz and Meyer 1991). Today,
temporary layoffs are less common; increasingly, workers receiving UI benefits
have been dislocated as the result of structural changes in the economy
and must find a new industry or occupation. In many cases, wages in the
new jobs these workers find are significantly lower than their former wages.
Thus, workers today need income support while they are searching for a new
job, but they also need training, job search support, and other assistance to
help ease what can be a difficult transition.
23
34
36
15 15
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Total Sole earners
with children
Sole earners
without children
Multiple earners
with children
Multiple earners
without children
Percent
Figure 7-1
Share of Household Income from Unemployment Insurance among
Recipients in 2010, by Household Type
Source: Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplement.
204 | Chapter 7
The first step to modernize the unemployment insurance program
was taken in the UI Modernization Act, a part of the Recovery Act. The UI
Modernization Act made $7 billion available to states that made reforms to
their UI programs. States could receive a part of the incentive payment for
using the most recent quarter as a part of the base period of earnings on
which UI eligibility and benefit amounts are determined. This made it more
likely that recent labor market entrants would meet the minimum earnings
threshold for UI eligibility. States could receive the other part of their apportioned
payment by adopting two of the following policies: allowing workers
who were employed part-time previously to continue receiving UI while
looking for part-time work, providing UI benefits to those who left their jobs
for certain compelling family reasons, allowing workers to continue receiving
UI for an additional six months if in an approved training program, and
providing additional benefits for households with more dependents. These
small incentive payments resulted in 36 states changing their UI laws.
Building on these reforms, in the American Jobs Act the President
called for further steps to improve the unemployment insurance program
and expand reemployment services and job training, and has made these
reforms a part of the FY 2013 Budget proposal. Although most UI policy
innovations target workers who have already lost their jobs, another important
policy goal is to reduce the number of workers who are laid off in the
first place. One promising initiative is work-sharing. Under a work-sharing
arrangement, workers whose hours are reduced in lieu of temporary layoffs
receive partial UI benefits while remaining on the job and keeping their skills
sharp. By allowing employers to retain skilled workers at reduced hours
rather than laying them off, work-sharing makes it easier and less costly for
employers to scale up production when orders increase. Twenty-four states
now have work-sharing programs, and in the American Jobs Act, President
Obama proposed incentives to help expand the program to more states.
Workers who have been laid off need help finding a new job. The
American Jobs Act included the Reemployment NOW program, a set of
reforms to help UI claimants get back to work more quickly. The FY 2013
Budget continues this support. As a part of this initiative, the Administration
has proposed requiring states to provide reemployment services, such
as career and job search counseling, skills assessments, and assistance in
identifying helpful resources to EUC recipients to speed their return to
work. Face-to-face contacts also provide an opportunity to assess recipients’
eligibility for UI benefits. Research suggests that these services can lower
program costs by reducing spells of UI receipt and eliminating payments to
ineligible individuals (Black et al. 2003).
Preserving and Modernizing the Safety Net | 205
Because entrepreneurship is key to a dynamic economy, a modern
UI system should make it easier for displaced workers to start their
own businesses. The Administration has proposed allowing states to
use Reemployment NOW funds to expand Self-Employment Assistance
programs that pay UI benefits to recipients who are working full-time to
establish a new business. Seven states already permit a similar use of unemployment
insurance benefits. Under this program, entrepreneurship training
would be facilitated through One-Stop Centers in collaboration with the
Small Business Administration. A demonstration project, Growing America
Through Entrepreneurship (Project GATE), provided training and one-onone
counseling to anyone interested in creating, sustaining, or expanding a
small business. A recent study found that GATE had a positive effect on new
business starts for unemployed participants and higher total earnings after
five years than a comparison group (Michaelides and Benus 2010).
For jobless workers seeking to change occupations, lack of experience
can be a significant barrier. With Reemployment NOW funds, states could
experiment with Bridge to Work programs, which would allow EUC recipients
to get short-term work-based experience that helps them maintain or
enhance their skills. Under this program, private employers would be able
to take on EUC recipients for up to 38 hours a week for a trial period of up
to eight weeks with the workers receiving compensation through the EUC
program. In addition, all program participants would be covered by workers’
compensation and be guaranteed at least the minimum wage.
Finally, to support state creativity and flexibility, upon approval of the
Secretary of Labor, states would be permitted to use Reemployment NOW
funds to implement their own innovative strategies for connecting the longterm
unemployed to employment opportunities.
In addition to these efforts that build upon the existing Federallyfinanced
unemployment compensation system to help with getting the
long-term unemployed back to work, the President’s Budget includes other
important and complementary initiatives that will contribute to the goal of
ensuring that every American who wants a job can find one. As discussed in
Chapter 6, these initiatives include streamlining training and employment
services so that job seekers can visit a single location or go to a single web site
to find the help they need; providing a universal core set of services to serve
all dislocated workers; and introducing a new Pathways Back to Work fund
to support employment opportunities for low-income youth, low-income
adults and the long-term unemployed.
206 | Chapter 7
Other Safety Net Programs
Several means-tested programs also provide support to American
families, especially those who have experienced adverse economic shocks.
Table 7-1 reports the number of participants and Federal cost of several
important programs. One of the largest Federal programs targeted at lowincome
families is the Earned Income Tax Credit, a refundable tax credit for
low-income workers. The assistance is available only to those with earnings,
and the amount of the credit increases with a worker’s earned income up to a
maximum level and then phases out at higher income levels. The maximum
benefit amount increases with the number of children in the family, and
the income level at which the credit begins to phase out differs according
to taxpayer filing status (single or married couple filing jointly). As part of
the Recovery Act, Congress created a new category with a higher credit for
taxpayers with three or more children, providing those families as much as
$600 extra, and increased the income level at which the credit phases out
for married couples filing jointly by $3,000 over 2008 levels. The Tax Relief
and Job Creation Act of 2010 extended these changes through 2012. Over 26
million working families and individuals received the EITC on their 2010 tax
return, with the average claimant receiving $2,220.
The benefits of the EITC go beyond the amount of the credit received.
Studies have found that the EITC increases participation in the labor market
(Eissa and Liebman 1996; Meyer and Rosenbaum 2000), improves maternal
health outcomes (Evans and Garthwaite 2010) and helps low-income individuals
acquire additional experience that contributes to higher earnings
growth (Dahl, DeLeire, and Schwabish 2009).
The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) is another
critical safety net program targeted at low-income families. SNAP benefits
are funded by the Federal Government and administered by states.
Families and individuals qualify if their income and assets are sufficiently
low. Participants usually receive their benefits on electronic benefit transfer
cards that can be used only to purchase food. Nondisabled adults who have
no dependents and who are not working or participating in a work training
program can usually receive SNAP benefits only for three months over a
three-year period.
Roughly half of all SNAP participants were children, and more than
three-quarters of all participant households included a child, an elderly
person, or a disabled nonelderly person. Roughly a quarter of all children
participated. In FY 2010, the average household participating in the SNAP
program received monthly benefits worth $287; 40 percent of participating
Preserving and Modernizing the Safety Net | 207
households received the maximum benefit for their family size—for example,
$668 a month for a family of four.
Both participation and expenditures are strongly countercyclical in
the SNAP program, increasing during economic contractions and decreasing
during expansions. Current projections are that SNAP enrollment will
begin falling next year, as the economy continues to recover. Thus, like UI,
SNAP not only provides direct benefits to participant households, but also
has a stabilizing effect on the economy by limiting declines in consumption
during economic downturns.
The Recovery Act established the Emergency Contingency Fund for
state Temporary Aid for Needy Families programs, which provided $5 billion
to states for increased spending for basic assistance, nonrecurrent shortterm
benefits, or subsidized employment. States expanded efforts in all three
areas, including committing $1.3 billion to the largest targeted employment
initiative in the history of welfare reform. Thirty-nine states in addition to
the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands established
subsidized employment programs, with an estimated 260,000 job slots created
for adults and youth, many of them involving subsidies that created jobs
with private sector employers. While most of these subsidized employment
Table 7-1
Number of Participants and Total Federal Expenditures for Safety Net Programs, 2010
Participants
(millions)
Federal expenditures
(billions of dollars)
Social insurance
Medicare 47.5 522.8
Old Age and Survivors Insurance 43.8 584.9
Unemployment insurance 10.4 158.3
Social Security Disability Insurance 10.2 127.7
Means-tested transfers and credits
Medicaid/Children's Health Insurance Program 58.3 281.9
Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program 40.3 68.3
Earned Income Tax Credit 26.8 59.5
Supplemental Security Income 7.9 47.8
Public and assisted housing 4.7 37.9
Temporary Assistance for Needy Families 4.4 18.1
Note: Recipients are counts of individuals except for recipients of EITC (tax filing units) andhousing (families).
Expenditures for UI, Medicaid/CHIP, SNAP, and TANF are for fiscal year 2010, and the number of recipients is the
average of point-in-time recipients over fiscal year 2010. Public and assisted housing includes only programs operated
by the Department of Housing and Urban Development, and recipients and expenditures are for fiscal year 2010.
The number of SSI recipients is as of December 2010. For all other programs, the number of recipients represents
those participating at any point in the (calendar) year. Federal expenditures include grants to states.
Source: Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Social Security Administration, Department of Labor, Office
of Management and Budget, Medicaid Payment Advisory Commission, Department of Agriculture, Internal
Revenue Service, Department of Health and Human Services, Department of Housing and Urban Development.
208 | Chapter 7
efforts were not sustained at previous levels after Recovery Act funding
ended, many jurisdictions have maintained programs at a smaller scale.
Based in part on the success of this initiative, the President has proposed the
Pathways Back to Work Fund (discussed in Chapter 6) that would provide
employment opportunities for low-income individuals and the long-term
unemployed.
Housing is the largest component of virtually every famil,y’s budget,
especially low-income families. The Federal safety net includes several
programs designed to ensure that financial stress does not result in homelessness.
Stable housing allows families to weather labor market shocks
and is a precondition for children’s educational success. In addition to
the 2.3 million families assisted by the Department of Housing and Urban
Development’s project-based rental assistance and public housing programs,
the largest Federal program aimed at low-income households is the
Housing Choice Voucher program. The Housing Choice Voucher program
served 2.1 million families in FY 2010, of which 90 percent included children,
the elderly, or individuals with disabilities. As discussed in Chapter 4,
the Administration has also developed new programs that help unemployed
homeowners avoid foreclosure.
Two other programs that are critical to the safety net provide benefits
to Americans with disabilities. Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) is
a social insurance program designed to offset the loss of wages of workers
with long-term health conditions that prevent “substantial gainful activity.”
Individuals with adequate Social Security–covered employment history, or
children (disabled before age 22) of a retired, deceased, or disabled worker
entitled to Social Security benefits, are covered by the program. Beneficiaries
receive a cash benefit based on their income before becoming disabled,
adjusted upward by wage inflation. In December 2010, more than 10 million
people received SSDI benefits. Recipients become eligible for Medicare after
two years, offsetting the loss of employer-sponsored health insurance.
A second Federal program that assists persons with disabilities is
Supplemental Security Income (SSI), a means-tested entitlement program
that provides cash benefits to needy aged, blind, or disabled individuals. In
December 2010, roughly 7.9 million Americans received SSI benefits; of that
total, about 6.6 million qualified on the basis of a disability. The program
is a particularly important source of income for older working-age adults:
roughly one-quarter of all participants are between the ages of 50 and 64.
A recent study illustrates how critical these programs are to their
participants (DeCesaro and Hemmeter 2008). Using data from 2002, the
study shows that nearly a quarter of SSDI and roughly half of SSI beneficiaries
had family incomes that fell below the Federal poverty level. However,
Preserving and Modernizing the Safety Net | 209
the programs play an important role in keeping their beneficiaries out of
extreme poverty, which is defined as having an income below 50 percent of
the Federal poverty threshold. According to this study, the majority of SSDI
recipients relied on that program for at least 75 percent of their income.
While only 5 percent of SSI beneficiaries were in extreme poverty, taking
away SSI benefits would have raised that figure above 40 percent.
Health Insurance
In March 2010, the President signed into law the Patient Protection
and Affordable Care Act (the Affordable Care Act). When fully implemented,
the Affordable Care Act will significantly strengthen the health
care safety net, substantially increasing the number of Americans with
health insurance and providing new protections and benefits to those who
are already insured. The Affordable Care Act builds on and maintains the
strengths of the current private system of employer-sponsored health coverage
and insurance provided through Medicare, Medicaid, and the Children’s
Health Insurance Program (CHIP). Therefore, the changes brought about
by the new law need to be considered in the context of the current system.
The Economics of Employer-Sponsored Health Insurance
One of the defining features of the U.S. health care system is the central
role played by employers. Today, roughly nine in ten Americans with
private health insurance obtain their coverage through the workplace, either
through their own employer or through the employer of a family member.
Employer-sponsored insurance is generally much less costly for workers—
who pay for coverage through reductions in their wages as well as direct
premium contributions—than coverage purchased directly in the individual
market. There are three main sources of savings.
First, employer-sponsored group coverage greatly mitigates the problem
of adverse selection. Because employer-sponsored groups are formed
for reasons other than purchasing health insurance, they represent stable
risk pools. Employer policies themselves contribute to this stability and to
the spreading of risks. Within firms, the amount that employees are required
to contribute toward premiums generally does not vary with health risk.
Common employer and insurer policies—such as limiting periods when
employees can sign up for coverage and requiring a minimum employee
participation rate—prevent employees from declining coverage when they
are healthy and joining the plan only when they need medical care.
A stable risk pool translates to lower administrative costs as insurers
need to devote fewer resources to underwriting. Administrative savings also
210 | Chapter 7
come from economies of scale in marketing and administration. Because
important costs vary with the number of contracts rather than the number
of individuals covered by a contract, it is less expensive on a per-person basis
to sell to a group of 1,000 than to sell to 1,000 individuals.
Third, because employer expenditures on health insurance premiums
are exempt from Federal and state income taxes and Social Security payroll
taxes, employer-sponsored insurance can effectively be purchased with
pretax dollars. For a typical worker in the 15 percent tax bracket, the tax
exclusion reduces the cost of insurance by roughly one third (Gruber 2010).
Overall, the estimated FY 2011 tax expenditure associated with the exemption
from Federal taxes is $282 billion.
Although the cost savings associated with employer provision of
insurance can be large, the savings are not evenly distributed among
employers. The advantages of more efficient risk pooling and economies of
scale in marketing and administration increase with firm size. The value of
the tax exemption is not explicitly tied to firm size, but because compensation
tends to be higher in larger firms, this advantage is correlated with size
as well. As a result, the larger the firm, the greater the probability it will offer
health insurance. Figure 7-2 illustrates that, whereas nearly all firms with
more than 50 employees offer health benefits, less than half of those with 2 to
24 employees do. Between 2000 and 2010, the share of private sector establishments
with fewer than 50 workers that offer health insurance benefits
declined from 47.2 percent to 39.2 percent.
Firm size affects more than just whether workers are offered coverage.
Among firms that offer insurance, large firms are substantially more likely to
offer a choice of plans: more than 80 percent of private sector establishments
with 1,000 or more employees offered a choice of health insurance options
in 2010, compared with 18 percent of establishments with 50 or fewer
employees. Employees who have a choice of plans tend to report greater
satisfaction with their insurance coverage and their health care (Schone and
Cooper 2001). And some very large firms have actively promoted strategies
to improve health care quality and patient safety.
Over the past two decades, rising health care costs have eroded the
accessibility of employer-sponsored health insurance, especially for middleclass
families who experienced relatively little income growth over that
period. Figure 7-3 plots the percentage of workers who lack health insurance
(left axis) against an estimate of their per capita health spending divided by
their median income (right axis). Because the growth in health spending is a
principal determinant of rising insurance premiums, this ratio can be seen to
capture changes in the affordability of health insurance. The figure indicates
that during the 1980s insurance became less affordable as health care costs
Preserving and Modernizing the Safety Net | 211
grew faster than median incomes and the percentage of workers without
coverage grew. In the mid-1990s, health care spending grew less rapidly and
a strong economy caused median income to rise. As a result of this confluence,
the affordability index remained relatively constant, and insurance
coverage stabilized. However, health care cost growth picked up again in the
late 1990s and has outstripped income growth for the past decade, causing
coverage to decline once again.
Medicaid and CHIP: A Health Care Safety Net for Children
As insurance coverage has declined among working-age adults over
the past two decades, coverage among children has actually increased
because of expanded eligibility for public programs. Until the mid-1980s,
Medicaid eligibility was tied to eligibility for Aid to Families with Dependent
Children, the cash welfare program. Starting in 1986, the two programs were
delinked, and income eligibility limits for Medicaid were increased. The
most significant eligibility expansions came as part of the Omnibus Budget
Reconciliation Acts of 1989 and 1990. As the data in Figure 7-4 depict, with
these expansions the share of children without health insurance began to
decline, even as the share of uninsured adults rose. By 1997, while 18 percent
of nonelderly adults were uninsured, the share of children who were uninsured
was 14 percent.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Percent
Figure 7-2
Percentage of Private Sector Establishments Offering Health Insurance
by Number of Employees, 1996–2010
2–9 employees
10–24 employees
25–49 employees
50+ employees
Source: Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, Insurance Component.
212 | Chapter 7
That same year, Congress established the State Children’s Health
Insurance Program (initially referred to as SCHIP, now CHIP) as part of
the Balanced Budget Act of 1997. Like Medicaid, CHIP is funded jointly
by states and the Federal Government, although CHIP allows states more
flexibility in designing their programs. States began implementing CHIP
in late 1997, and by 2000 every state program was up and running. Today,
the income eligibility limit in 47 states and the District of Columbia is 200
percent of the Federal poverty level or greater. As a result of Medicaid and
CHIP, the percentage of children who are uninsured has fallen since the late
1990s and is now less than half the adult rate.
President Obama has built on the success of Medicaid and CHIP by making
these programs even stronger. In the early days of the Administration, the
President signed the Children’s Health Insurance Program Reauthorization
Act of 2009, which extended funding for CHIP through September 2013. This
legislation also introduced administrative reforms that improve program
effectiveness, including new performance bonuses for states that successfully
increase coverage by streamlining eligibility and enrollment procedures. Also
in 2009, the Recovery Act provided additional support to states by boosting
the Federal share of Medicaid at a time when program enrollment was
increasing and state budgets were in crisis. Between 2008 and June 2011, over
0.03
0.05
0.07
0.09
0.11
0.13
0.15
14
17
20
23
26
1979 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Percent uninsured
Figure 7-3
Percentage of Workers Without Health Insurance and the Ratio of
Per Capita Health Expenditures to Median Income, 1979–2010
Percent of workers
without insurance
(left scale)
Ratio of expenditures to income
Per capita health
expenditures for privately
insured adults divided by
median income among
workers
(right scale)
Source: CEA extension of Gilmer and Kronick (2009).
Preserving and Modernizing the Safety Net | 213
4.4 million children gained coverage through Medicaid and CHIP. In 2010,
the Affordable Care Act extended funding for CHIP through 2015.
Because of Medicaid and CHIP, insurance coverage of children tends
to be less sensitive to changes in macroeconomic conditions than that of
adults. Research suggests that, holding other factors constant, a 1 percentage
point increase in the national unemployment rate translates to almost
a 1 point decrease in the percentage of nonelderly adults and children
covered by employer-sponsored insurance (Holahan and Garrett 2009).
Without a strong public insurance safety net for adults, more than half of
the working-age Americans who lose employer-sponsored insurance during
an economic downturn end up uninsured. For children, however, the loss
of private coverage is mostly offset by an increase in public insurance. This
discrepancy between the experience of adults and children will change with
the full implementation of the Affordable Care Act, described below.
Many studies indicate that the expansion of Medicaid and CHIP has
also significantly improved access to health care. One study using data from
the 1980s and early 1990s found that eligibility for public insurance roughly
halved the probability that a child failed to have at least one physician visit
a year (Currie and Gruber 1996a). Other research shows that increased
Medicaid eligibility for children leads to an increase in hospitalizations
0
5
10
15
20
25
1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
Percent
Age under 18
Age 18–64
Figure 7-4
Percentage of Children and Adults Without Health Insurance,
1988–2010
Note: Data for 1988 to 1998 adjusted to reflect CPS's 2011 revision to the health insurance
editing process.
Source: Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplement.
214 | Chapter 7
overall, but a decrease in “preventable” admissions (that is, those that are
avoidable if a child receives appropriate primary care) (Dafny and Gruber
2005). Improved access to care translates into better health outcomes, ranging
from improvements in subjective health status (Currie, Decker, and Lin
2008) to reduced child mortality (Currie and Gruber 1996a, 1996b).
Expanding Health Care Coverage: The Affordable Care Act
The Affordable Care Act builds on the strengths of employersponsored
insurance and on the success of earlier expansions of Medicaid
and CHIP to expand and strengthen the health care safety net. By 2019, the
Affordable Care Act is expected to increase the number of Americans with
health insurance by more than 30 million. Roughly half of the coverage
gain will come from raising Medicaid eligibility limits to 133 percent of the
Federal poverty level. Because income eligibility limits for CHIP in all states
already exceed this level, the law will expand Medicaid coverage mainly
among nonelderly adults. Although the primary responsibility for administering
Medicaid will remain with the states, funding for the expanded coverage
will come almost entirely from the Federal Government.
Most of the remaining coverage gains will come from private insurance
purchased through state-level Affordable Insurance Exchanges. Individuals
and families with incomes up to 400 percent of the Federal poverty level
who do not have access to affordable employer-sponsored coverage that
meets a minimum value will be eligible for premium tax credits that they can
use to purchase coverage through an Exchange. These new tax credits are
targeted at lower- and middle-income families who currently receive little
or no benefit from the large tax subsidies that implicitly support the system
of employer-sponsored insurance. The Affordable Care Act also establishes
a Small Business Health Insurance Options Program (SHOP) in each state
that gives small employers and their employees access to private health
insurance plans and small business health insurance tax credits as well.
The state-level Exchanges will extend to workers at small firms, the
self-employed, part-time workers, and nonworkers many of the advantages
of employer-sponsored insurance already enjoyed by employees of large
firms: more efficient risk pooling and greater administrative economies of
scale than are available in the current individual and small group market.
Within an Exchange, consumers and employers will be able to choose from
a broad menu of plans. To improve consumer choices, Exchanges will
provide transparent information on premiums, benefits, cost-sharing, and
plan quality—information that will help cut the high consumer search costs
that push up premiums in the small group and individual health insurance
markets (Cebul et al. 2011). By creating a marketplace in which consumers
Preserving and Modernizing the Safety Net | 215
can easily compare plans on the basis of price and quality, the Exchanges
should increase competition among insurers. Considerable evidence from
large employers shows that when employees are given a choice of health
plans and clear information about premiums and benefits, they switch plans
in response to small differences in premiums (Buchmueller 2009).
The Affordable Care Act establishes new consumer protections for
health insurance coverage purchased either through an Exchange or in the
outside individual or small group market, many of which are already in
effect today. Insurers will not be allowed to deny or limit coverage on the
basis of an individual’s health status. Within certain limits, premiums may
vary by age, geography, and smoking status, but not by individual health
status, gender, or other factors. The Act also includes a requirement that
individuals who can afford insurance maintain minimum essential coverage.
These market reforms fill an important gap in the health care safety net.
Provisions of the Affordable Care Act Now in Place
Many of the insurance market reforms, along with the expansion of
Medicaid and the creation of the Exchanges, will not take effect until 2014.
Some provisions of the Affordable Care Act, however, have already been put
into place. Insurers are now prohibited from retroactively cancelling coverage
because of honest mistakes made on the application. The Act also eliminates
lifetime dollar limits on essential health benefits and restricts the use
of annual dollar limits. (Annual benefit limits will be eliminated completely
by 2014.) Since July 2010, consumers who are uninsured and unable to get
insurance because of a pre-existing condition can find subsidized coverage
through the Pre-Existing Condition Insurance Plan. This temporary program
gives uninsured individuals with costly conditions access to affordable
insurance until the full set of consumer protections takes effect in 2014. As
of the end of 2011, 45,000 individuals were enrolled.
Another coverage-related provision of the law that is already in force
allows young adults to remain on their parents’ private insurance policies
until they reach age 26. This policy targets a population that is disproportionately
uninsured. Although one reason large numbers of young adults
have no health insurance is that people in this age group tend to be in good
health and do not perceive a need for health care (the “young invincibles”
hypothesis), a second important reason is lack of access to affordable coverage,
because many young adults have not yet settled into full-time jobs
that offer health benefits. As a result, the probability of being uninsured
jumps between the ages of 18 and 19, as many young adults lose coverage
under their parents’ employer-sponsored insurance. This loss of coverage
216 | Chapter 7
translates to a significantly lower use of health care services (Anderson,
Dobkin, and Gross 2012).
The dependent coverage provision of the Affordable Care Act took
effect on September 23, 2010. Data from several independent sources indicate
that the policy has significantly increased the insurance coverage of
young adults. Figure 7-5 presents data from one such source, the National
Health Interview Survey, highlighting the change in insurance coverage for
youth age 19 to 25 in comparison to a slightly older group, age 26 to 35.
Because these two groups should face roughly similar labor market conditions,
the experience of the older group provides a sense of what would have
happened to the younger group had this provision of the Affordable Care
Act not gone into effect.
Estimates from the third quarter of 2010 show that 35.6 percent
of the younger group was uninsured, compared with 27.7 percent of the
older group. Between the third quarter of 2010 and the second quarter of
2011, insurance coverage was essentially unchanged for the older group. In
contrast, among the younger group the share uninsured fell 8.3 percentage
points. This change translates to a gain in health insurance coverage for
approximately 2.5 million people. Because even before this policy, college
students were able to stay on their parents’ insurance plans or obtain coverage
through their school, the coverage gains arising from the Affordable
35.6
27.3 27.7 28.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Ages 19–25 Ages 26–35
Percent
Source: National Health Interview Survey.
Figure 7-5
Percentage of Young Adults Without Health Insurance,
2010 Q3 and 2011 Q2
2010 Q3 2011 Q2 2010 Q3 2011 Q2
Preserving and Modernizing the Safety Net | 217
Care Act have been concentrated among non-students and recent graduates.
Many of these newly insured young adults are from lower middle-class families
who are working to maintain their position in the economy in the face of
not only the recent economic downturn, but long-run forces that have been
working against the middle class for decades.
The Economic Benefits of Expanding Insurance Coverage
Expansion in health insurance coverage from the ACA can be
expected to positively affect access to care, health, and financial security.
These effects and the impact of other provisions of the Affordable Care Act
will be important topics of research (see Data Watch 7-2).
Research on previous coverage expansions suggests that health insurance
can significantly improve all three outcomes. As noted, considerable
research has examined the benefits of health insurance for children. One
recent study (Finkelstein et al. 2011) examines the effect of insurance
coverage on low-income adults. The study, which uses data from Oregon’s
Medicaid program, has two especially notable features. First, its population
sample is similar to the group that will gain Medicaid coverage as a result of
the Affordable Care Act. Second, because of budgetary constraints, access to
Medicaid coverage was determined randomly by a lottery, in the same way
patients are assigned to treatment and control groups in a randomized control
trial. As a result, the study avoids the fundamental problems of inference
inherent to observational studies.
The study finds that in the program’s first year insurance coverage
significantly increased the use of outpatient and inpatient care and of
prescription drugs. The added care led to increases in the share of men and
women screened for high cholesterol and high blood sugar and in the share
of women receiving mammograms and Pap tests. The study also noted
significant gains in several self-reported measures of physical and mental
health. These findings are especially striking because the health benefits of
improved access to care are likely to grow over time.
In addition to improving access to appropriate care, health insurance
protects individuals and families from the financial risk associated with
uncertain and potentially catastrophic medical costs. Today few uninsured
families have the resources to cover the cost of a serious illness. According to
one recent study, about a third of uninsured families have no financial assets
at all, and the average uninsured family can afford to pay only 12 percent of
the cost of a single hospitalization (Chappel, Kronick, and Glied 2011). The
Oregon study used several financial outcomes to assess economic benefits of
insurance. It found that individuals with health insurance were less likely to
have unpaid bills sent to a collection agency and that they were significantly
218 | Chapter 7
Data Watch 7-2: Health Data for Policy
Health policy formulation and evaluation requires high-quality
data on a broad range of outcomes. Federal surveys have provided
the basis for a large research literature that informed the design of the
Affordable Care Act. These surveys along with other Federal data programs
will be important resources for monitoring the impact of the Act.
One objective of the Affordable Care Act is to substantially
increase the number of Americans with health insurance. The National
Health Interview Survey (NHIS) sponsored by the Department of
Health and Human Services (HHS) and three other surveys conducted
by the Census Bureau—the Current Population Survey’s Annual
Social and Economic Supplement, the Survey of Income and Program
Participation, and the American Community Survey—provide data on
various aspects of insurance coverage. Increased insurance coverage
should lead to improved access to care and improved population health.
The NHIS and another HHS survey, the Household Component of the
Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS), combine information on
insurance coverage with information on medical care utilization and
health status. Another component of the MEPS surveys employers on
key features of the health insurance they offer employees. Additional
information on utilization comes from HHS surveys of health care
providers, including office-based physicians, ambulatory care facilities,
and hospitals.
Two Federal data programs—the National Health Expenditure
Accounts, produced by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services,
and the National Income and Product Accounts, produced by the
Bureau of Economic Analysis—provide independent estimates of
national health spending. Efforts also are under way at the Bureau of
Labor Statistics to improve the collection of health data to better measure
health sector prices and productivity (Bradley et al. 2010). Current
initiatives by Federal agencies and academic researchers are aimed at
developing data systems that support disease-based estimates of health
spending (Aizcorbe, Retus, and Smith 2008). Research in this area
focusing on selected conditions has shown that disease-based measures
allow for a more nuanced understanding of what drives the growth in
health spending. The results suggest that failing to account for changes
in the inputs used to treat a particular condition and for improvements
in health outcomes leads to an overestimate of health care inflation and
an underestimate of productivity gains in the health sector (Aizcorbe
and Nestoriak 2011). Whether this conclusion can be generalized is the
subject of ongoing research.
Preserving and Modernizing the Safety Net | 219
less likely to report having to borrow money or skip paying other bills to pay
medical expenses. These findings are consistent with earlier research showing
that the advent of Medicare in 1965 generated large benefits in the form
of reduced exposure to out-of-pocket medical expenditure risk (Finkelstein
and McKnight 2008).
The benefits of the Affordable Care Act’s coverage expansion are
likely to spill over to the labor market as well. Because small firms cannot
offer health insurance that matches in cost and quality the insurance offered
by larger firms, they often find it difficult to compete with large firms in
attracting and retaining workers. Similarly, the lack of affordable insurance
options in the individual health insurance market poses a barrier to workers
who would like to start their own business, work part-time, or retire before
they are eligible for Medicare. Indeed, numerous studies find that the link
between health insurance and full-time employment distorts decisions
regarding labor supply, job mobility, and retirement (Gruber and Madrian
2004). By improving the health insurance options available to small employers
and expanding the availability of affordable individual coverage, the
Affordable Care Act should greatly reduce if not eliminate these distortions.
The Affordable Care Act and Medicare
Given the high and uncertain medical expenses faced by seniors, the
health insurance coverage that Medicare provides for individuals age 65
and older is a critical component of the health care safety net. The inability
of private markets alone to provide adequate health insurance coverage
for seniors is a classic example of adverse selection (Akerlof 1970). Indeed,
before Medicare was enacted in 1965, only an estimated one-quarter
of seniors had meaningful private insurance (Finkelstein 2007). Today
Medicare covers roughly 40 million elderly Americans and 8 million people
under age 65 who qualify on the basis of disability.
Although the Affordable Care Act’s coverage expansions and insurance
market reforms are targeted at nonelderly Americans, the new law has
important implications for Medicare as well. It provides new benefits to
seniors by eliminating cost sharing for recommended preventive services,
adds an annual wellness visit, and reduces out-of-pocket costs for prescription
drugs in the Medicare Part D coverage gap. By the end of 2011, more
than 24 million elderly Americans have benefited from the elimination
of cost sharing for preventive benefits, and 3.6 million beneficiaries have
received $2.1 billion in drug discounts.
The Affordable Care Act also puts in place several strategies for
reducing the growth in Medicare spending. Such efforts to “bend the cost
curve” are essential to maintaining the long-run fiscal status of the program
220 | Chapter 7
and reducing long-run Federal budget deficits. The Act includes important
changes in the way Medicare pays doctors, hospitals, and other health care
providers to create strong incentives for providers to redesign the way
they deliver care, both to improve health and to use scarce resources more
efficiently. The Medicare Shared Savings Program, for example, encourages
physicians, hospitals, and other organizations to form Accountable
Care Organizations (ACOs) to provide cost-effective, coordinated care to
Medicare beneficiaries. Both the Shared Savings program and a similar
Affordable Care Act initiative developed through the Center for Medicare
and Medicaid Innovation (the Innovation Center) reward ACOs that are
able to reduce the growth in health care spending while achieving high standards
for clinical quality and patient satisfaction.
The mission of the Innovation Center is to help transform the
Medicare, Medicaid, and CHIP programs to deliver better health care, better
health, and reduced costs. The center’s portfolio of initiatives includes
demonstration projects that test new strategies for providing higher-quality
health care more efficiently. These strategies include models of enhanced
primary care; the use of episode-based bundled payments to improve care
coordination; and a challenge grant program that will award up to $1 billion
in grants to applicants who will implement the most compelling ideas for
delivering better health, improved care, and lower costs to people enrolled
in Medicare, Medicaid, and CHIP. Because of Medicare’s outsized role as a
purchaser of health care, these initiatives are likely to spur similar innovations
by private insurers.
Retirement Security
For older Americans, retirement savings in combination with Social
Security benefits are a critical element of the safety net. These savings and
benefits together allow retirees to maintain the living standards they had
during their working lives and to protect themselves against downturns in
the financial markets, unexpectedly high health care costs, and the risk of
running down one’s assets. In addition, some Americans elect to accumulate
additional savings in hopes of bequeathing assets to their heirs. From a
broader societal perspective, private retirement savings fuel capital accumulation.
Capital thus accumulated leads to greater investment, which in turn
leads to a more productive workforce and stronger economic growth. In
this sense, saving not only bolsters the standard of living in retirement for
participating workers but also raises the quality of life for future generations.
Over the years, policymakers have implemented a variety of policies
to encourage capital accumulation, to protect retired households against
Preserving and Modernizing the Safety Net | 221
economic shocks, and to increase the likelihood that Americans enjoy the
same quality of life during retirement that they enjoyed during their working
years. The most prominent of these programs is Old Age and Survivors’
Insurance, also known as Social Security, which pays retiree benefits to more
than 95 percent of elderly individuals in the United States. Social Security is
the nation’s retirement security bedrock, paying out $596.7 billion to 44.4
million beneficiaries in 2011—an average annual benefit of $13,561. Social
Security payments, combined with private savings and employer-provided
retirement benefits, provide sufficient income to enjoy a comfortable
retirement, and for many others, make the difference between meeting
basic needs and living in poverty. In 2010 Social Security income lifted an
estimated 13.8 million elderly Americans out of poverty. The program also
provides a key safety net for survivors of deceased workers, helping roughly
6 million surviving spouses and children.
Even as Social Security helps provide a stable source of income in
retirement, tax preferences for retirement saving give working-age households
greater incentive to accumulate assets toward retirement. Most
tax-preferred accounts allow workers and their employers to make pre-tax
contributions to a retirement account and also allow earnings on those contributions
to accumulate tax-free; other accounts allow after-tax contributions
to grow and be withdrawn tax-free. Many American households have
responded to these tax incentives by building assets toward retirement, with
total balances in defined-contribution and individual retirement accounts
(IRAs) rising to nearly $9.2 trillion in 2010. The overall tax expenditure for
the principal retirement saving incentives is substantial, totaling almost $120
billion in fiscal year 2010.
Declining Retirement Preparedness
Despite the availability of tax-related incentives to spur saving,
many households have not accumulated sufficient assets to overcome the
potential risks faced in retirement. By some estimates, the proportion of
households with adequate retirement saving has been in decline for decades.
As illustrated in Figure 7-6, the share of households “at risk” of experiencing
marked declines in consumption in retirement rose from 31 percent in 1983
to 51 percent in 2009, with much of the recent change owing to declining
housing values.2 For members of Generation X (individuals born between
2 These estimates are based on the National Retirement Risk Index (NRRI) produced by the
Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. For each household, the NRRI estimates
household income in retirement (based on projected assets at retirement) as a share of
pre-retirement earnings; this percentage represents the replacement rate of pre-retirement
earnings. Each household is assigned a benchmark “adequate” replacement rate; households
that are more than 10 percent below the benchmark are deemed to be “at risk.”
222 | Chapter 7
the mid-1960s and 1972), the situation is even more troubling, with nearly
three in five households in that age group in danger of becoming unable to
maintain their living standard in retirement (Munnell, Webb, and Golub-
Sass 2009).
Although retirement preparedness has been in decline in the aggregate,
specific demographic groups are particularly vulnerable. Single individuals
and low-income households are all especially likely to enter retirement
with insufficient assets. For example, one estimate for 2009 identified
60 percent of low-income households as inadequate savers, compared with
42 percent of high-income households (Munnell, Webb, and Golub-Sass
2009). Another estimate found that 60.2 percent of single men had insufficient
retirement wealth to maintain preretirement consumption, compared
with 45.2 percent of married couples (Haveman et al. 2006).
Recent economic shocks have impacted individuals nearing retirement.
Between 2007 and 2009, Americans aged 55 to 64 saw their real
median household income decline by 5 percent and their median net worth
fall 15 percent—from $258,000 to $222,000 (Bricker et al. 2011). In addition,
the value of housing—a key source of wealth for older Americans—has
dropped 34 percent since the housing market’s peak in April 2006. The
value of financial assets also declined precipitously following the financial
crisis and has yet to rebound fully to pre-recession levels. The combination
of declining asset values and lower income has further weakened retirement
preparedness.
Challenges to the Retirement Safety Net
Several developments have contributed to the problem of inadequate
retirement saving. A first-order concern is declining participation in
employer-sponsored retirement plans. Between 2000 and 2010, the share
of private sector workers between the ages of 21 and 64 who participated in
an employer-sponsored retirement plan fell from 48 percent to 39 percent.
The past several decades have also seen changes in the nature of private
employer retirement plans. The share of private-sector workers covered
by defined-benefit pension plans fell from 38 percent in 1980 to 20 percent
in 2008 as many private employers switched to defined-contribution plans
like 401(k) plans. Section 401(k) and other defined-contribution plans offer
workers particular benefits, such as portability, high potential for growth,
and flexibility. However, the shift to 401(k) plans (and to a lesser degree
a shift from traditional defined-benefit pensions to hybrid defined-benefit
plans such as cash balance plans) has also transferred substantial risk away
from employers, placing greater responsibility on workers to accumulate
and manage assets and exposing them to greater financial risk.
Preserving and Modernizing the Safety Net | 223
To take full advantage of the wide array of incentives for retirement
saving, workers must assess complex details associated with establishing an
account, making contributions, managing investments, and eventually making
withdrawals. In the face of complex saving and investment decisions,
some workers put off enrolling in employer-sponsored retirement programs
or taking advantage of tax-preferred saving vehicles outside of employment.
Such delays are costly in terms of lifetime asset accumulation. (See
Economics Application Box 7-1 for more information on common mistakes
made by retirement savers.)
Another challenge to the retirement safety net is the uneven distribution
of the benefits of the tax code’s generous incentives for retirement
saving. Because these tax incentives are often provided as a deduction or
exclusion from income, they are most valuable for taxpayers in higher tax
brackets. In the aggregate, these incentives flow disproportionately to upperincome
households; almost 80 percent of the total tax benefit is projected to
go in 2012 to the richest 20 percent of households and more than 40 percent
to households in the top 5 percent of the income distribution (Toder, Harris,
and Lim 2011).
The availability of employer-sponsored retirement saving options
also varies by firm size. As with health insurance, small employers face
significant challenges in establishing retirement plans. High per-participant
31 31 30
36
38
40
38
43 44
51
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2009
Percent of households "at risk"
Figure 7-6
The National Retirement Risk Index, 1983–2009
Source: Munnell, Webb, and Golub-Sass (2009).
224 | Chapter 7
administrative costs, frequent employee turnover, uncertain revenues, and
lack of familiarity with plan design and characteristics all discourage small
business owners from providing retirement plans. Their inability to provide
these plans not only threatens retirement security for employees of small
businesses but also can make small businesses less attractive to workers than
larger employers are.
These obstacles to retirement saving keep account balances low for
many households. In 2011, more than half of all workers reported that the
total value of their household’s savings is less than $25,000; 29 percent said
they have less than $1,000 in savings (Helman, Copeland, and VanDerhei
2011). Although some of these workers may participate in defined-benefit
pensions, others will enter retirement with little income outside of Social
Security. One analysis of households aged 65 to 69 in 2008 showed that the
median household had just $15,000 in financial assets and $5,000 in private
retirement assets (Poterba, Venti, and Wise 2011). Most households in the
sample had more wealth in housing equity than in liquid assets (Table 7-2).
One of the toughest retirement challenges involves uncertainty about
how long retirees are likely to live. With extended longevity comes the possibility
that an individual will live longer than expected and will thus outlive
his or her accumulated assets. This possibility increases as the time between
retirement and expected age of death lengthens. In 1970 a worker retiring at
age 65 could expect to live another 15.2 years; by 2008 that figure had grown
to 18.7 years. Although extending life expectancy is an exceptional achievement
for the United States, it also increasingly exposes retirees to the risk of
outliving their assets outside of Social Security. In 2010, just 17 percent of
Americans aged 65 to 69 relied on Social Security for more than 90 percent
of their income, but the share almost doubled, to 33 percent, for Americans
age 80 and older (Figure 7-7).
Another serious risk is costly health shocks. Even with the protection
provided by Medicare, many retirees face high out-of-pocket health expenditures,
diminishing their retirement assets and threatening their well-being.
Recent research estimates that for a 65-year-old couple, the expected present
value of lifetime out-of-pocket medical costs exceeds $250,000, with a 5
percent risk that expenses will exceed $570,000 (Webb and Zhivan 2010). As
discussed in Data Watch 7-1, out-of-pocket health costs can push retirees
into poverty.
The risk of large health expenditures and the possibility of outliving
one’s assets force retirees to face difficult decisions about how much
of their assets to consume in any given year. Uncertainty about lifespan,
inflation, investment return, and unexpected medical expenses makes
the “decumulation decision”—how much to withdraw from accumulated
Preserving and Modernizing the Safety Net | 225
saving—exceptionally complicated. Retirees who live longer than expected
might find themselves with insufficient assets in the later years of life, at
a time when they are most vulnerable and in need of a reliable stream of
income. While private annuities can serve to mitigate many of these risks,
annuities markets face a host of obstacles including regulatory barriers,
Table 7-2
Distribution of Wealth Components for Households Aged 65–69, 2008
Thousands of dollars
Percentile Financial
assets
Personal
retirement
account
assets
Financial
+ personal
retirement
account
Housing
equity
Definedbenefit
pension
Social
Security Net worth
10 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 197.0
20 0.3 0.0 0.8 5.0 0.0 154.3 297.3
30 2.0 0.0 5.5 42.0 0.0 214.5 413.6
40 6.0 0.0 20.0 80.0 0.0 267.9 564.0
50 15.0 5.0 52.0 120.0 0.0 315.3 731.1
60 32.0 28.8 104.0 162.0 25.3 379.0 898.4
70 70.0 75.0 195.0 229.5 116.8 463.3 1,146.4
80 145.0 142.0 375.0 349.2 238.5 542.9 1,483.4
90 358.0 347.0 711.0 585.0 468.9 643.1 2,103.0
Source: Poterba, Venti, and Wise (2011).
17%
25% 28% 33%
19%
27%
28%
29%
63%
48% 44%
38%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Age 65 to 69 Age 70 to 74 Age 75 to 79 Over age 80
less than 50% 50-90% more than 90%
Source: Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplement.
Percent
Figure 7-7
Percent of Individuals with Various Shares of Family Income
from Social Security, by Age of Householder, 2010
226 | Chapter 7
Economics Application Box 7-1: Financial Literacy and
Common Mistakes Made by Retirement Savers
A generation ago, when many workers were covered by definedbenefit
plans, retirement savings decisions were relatively easy. Today,
workers must take much more responsibility for ensuring that they have
adequate income throughout retirement. Achieving that goal requires
avoiding some mistakes commonly made in saving for retirement.
Below is a list of five mistakes that people often make.
Missing out on the tax benefits of saving. The tax code affords strong
incentives for retirement saving. Participation in an employer-sponsored
retirement plan or individual retirement account can yield thousands of
dollars of extra retirement wealth over time. In addition, low- and middle-
income households can take advantage of the Saver’s Credit, which
effectively provides workers with a Government match on new saving.
Workers can substantially increase their retirement savings by
contributing early and taking advantage of tax benefits for retirement
saving. For example, if a 25-year-old contributes $1,000 toward retirement
in a taxable account, that $1,000 can be expected to grow to
approximately $7,300 in today’s dollars by the time the worker reaches
age 65. Taking advantage of tax benefits for saving can substantially
increase this amount. If the same worker contributes $1,000 to a Roth
IRA, that $1,000 can be expected to grow to nearly $10,300 in today’s
dollars by the time the worker reaches age 65. As illustrated in the figure
below, the benefits of tax-preferred saving increase over time.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Dollars (2012)
Note: Calculations assume a 6 percent real rate of return and 15 percent tax rate.
Source: CEA calculations.
Simulated Accumulation for an Intial $1,000 Contribution to
a Taxable Account or Roth IRA, 2012–2052
Roth
IRA
Taxable
Account
Preserving and Modernizing the Safety Net | 227
Failing to participate in an employer-sponsored retirement plan.
Some employer-sponsored retirement plans provide an employer match
for money that an employee deposits into a retirement account. Taking
advantage of an employer match is one of the best ways to leverage
retirement contributions and rapidly accumulate saving. Many workers,
especially new hires and young employees, however, leave this “free
money” on the table by failing to sign up for a retirement plan. In 2001,
only 57.5 percent of workers aged 20–29 participated in a company
retirement plan even when one was offered (Kawachi, Smith, and Toder
2006).
Failing to diversify retirement savings. Investment needs and risk
appetites vary across households. However, concentrating all assets
in one particular type of investment can prove risky, especially if that
asset is stock in an employee’s company. One study found that in
2002, nearly 4 million workers invested in excess of 80 percent of their
employer retirement plan assets in own-company stock (Mitchell and
Utkus 2002). In general, investors can protect themselves against risk by
spreading their assets across various types of investments.
Losing investment returns to high fees. High fees can inhibit rapid
accumulation of retirement wealth. Savers should pay attention to all
investment fees, including tho,se charged at purchase of a mutual fund,
ongoing fees, fees charged by brokers and registered investment advisors,
and fees charged on the purchase of annuity products. Although
these fees are ordinarily charged for legitimate services provided, investors
should incorporate the cost of fees in their purchase decisions.
Cashing-out retirement savings. When workers leave a job, some
fail to rollover their pension wealth into an IRA and pay a penalty for
cashing out their retirement savings. These leakages in retirement savings
make it difficult to arrive at retirement with adequate amounts of
savings. In 2006, workers aged 15 to 60 cashed out $74 billion in retirement
assets when changing jobs (GAO 2009).
Failing to protect against longevity and health care risk in old age.
As lifespans increase, more Americans will face the prospect of running
out of money in old age. Planning for and protecting against the risk
of outliving family assets as well as the need for long-term care is an
essential part of the retirement security picture.
228 | Chapter 7
behavioral aversion to annuities, and inadequate savings to purchase an
annuity (Benartzi, Previtero, and Thaler 2011).
Policies to Address Retirement Saving Challenges
The President has proposed several policies to bolster Americans’
retirement saving behavior and lead to a more secure retirement for millions
of families. Perhaps the most significant policy is the establishment of automatic
IRAs for tens of millions of workers. This proposal builds on a broad
literature showing that automatic enrollment can dramatically increase
participation rates in workplace retirement plans. For example, Madrian and
Shea (2001) show that the participation rate after one year of employment
at a large corporation increased from 37.4 percent to 85.9 percent following
the adoption of automatic enrollment.
The President’s proposal would require most firms without qualified
employee retirement plans to offer employees an automatic IRA option. By
default, automatic IRA contributions would be funded by payroll deductions
equal to 3 percent of pay, unless employees opted out of the program
or elected to contribute a different amount. Firms would not contribute on
behalf of the employee, and companies offering the automatic IRA to workers
could claim a tax credit for the employer’s associated expenses up to $500
for the first year and $250 for the second year along with an additional tax
credit of $25 per employee—up to a maximum of $250 a year for six years.
The automatic IRA would transform the retirement saving landscape.
Employees who previously accumulated little or nothing toward retirement
would begin accumulating assets immediately. Upward of 40 million workers,
all previously ineligible for workplace retirement saving plans, would be
covered by the new proposal. About 80 percent of these workers would be
low- and middle-income employees with less than $50,000 in annual wages,
indicating that the IRA would primarily be targeted at workers who are more
likely to have accumulated little savings.
The Administration also proposes to increase the tax credit for small
businesses that adopt, for the first time, a qualified employee retirement
plan. Under current law, small businesses can receive up to $500 in tax
credits—each year for up to three years—for establishing an employee retirement
plan. The President proposes to double the maximum credit to $1,000
annually to provide a stronger incentive for small employers to establish
workplace retirement plans.
The Administration’s Budget eases the compliance burden for retirement
savings by exempting retirees with modest accumulated saving from
minimum required distribution (MRDs) rules. MRDs are established to
ensure that retirees with high accumulated retirement assets direct those
Preserving and Modernizing the Safety Net | 229
assets towards retirement, and not use retirement accounts to shelter their
income from estate taxes. The Administration proposes to exempt retirees
with less than $75,000 in retirement savings from these rules. This move
would simplify tax compliance for millions of elderly Americans, who
would no longer need to calculate the amount and timing of their minimum
required payouts. It would give millions of seniors greater freedom of choice
as to when and how rapidly to spend their limited assets in retirement, while
also adding flexibility to purchase lifetime income products—such as longevity
annuities—that might violate MRD regulations.
The Administration has made a commitment to financial literacy as a
means of assisting Americans in making sound decisions regarding saving
and investment. In 2010, the President signed an Executive Order creating the
President’s Advisory Council on Financial Capability to assist the American
people in understanding financial matters and making informed financial
decisions. In addition, the Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act
of 2010 created the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, which is charged
with educating consumers about financial matters and enabling them to
make sound financial decisions. And, in 2011, the Financial Literacy and
Education Commission, established to coordinate Federal efforts to promote
financial literacy, developed a new national strategy to enable Federal agencies
to coordinate and promote all the Federal initiatives aimed at helping
Americans make better financial choices.
Taken together, these policies will lead to a more inclusive retirement
saving landscape. Workers who would defer retirement saving because of
financial inertia or behavioral obstacles will automatically be put on a path
toward better saving. Easing MRD rules will simplify financial decisions
in retirement for millions of elderly Americans. A coordinated national
financial literacy campaign will help Americans become more active savers
and will lead to improved investment decisions and smarter consumer
behavior. More active saving, coupled with improved investment behavior,
will increase the level of assets earmarked for retirement saving, leading to a
more stable retirement for millions of Americans.
Conclusion
A strong and dynamic economy requires a robust and modern safety
net to protect families against economic shocks and to provide a level of
security that promotes entrepreneurship and economic growth. The challenging
economic times of the past decade have made clear the important
role that public policy can play in this area. In particular, unemployment
insurance benefits, the Earned Income Tax Credit, and the Supplemental
230 | Chapter 7
Nutrition Assistance Program have kept millions of American families out
of poverty. Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program have
ensured that children are able to maintain health insurance coverage even if
their parents lose access to employer-sponsored plans.
New policy initiatives will further strengthen the safety net. Although
the current system of unemployment insurance has provided critical support
for dislocated workers, the system can be modernized and improved.
The President has proposed a number of innovative programs that would
make it easier for jobless workers to invest in new skills or even start their
own businesses. These proposals build on current programs that have been
proven to work.
The Affordable Care Act represents the most significant improvement
in the health care safety net since the advent of Medicare and Medicaid
in the mid-1960s. By 2019, the Act is expected to increase the number of
Americans with health insurance by over 30 million, and it will put in place
new consumer protections ensuring that health insurance coverage remains
available and affordable for all Americans regardless of an individual’s
health status or medical history.
In the area of retirement security, the President has proposed a
number of policies that will boost retirement savings, making it more likely
that Americans will enter retirement with adequate assets to maintain their
desired level of consumption. These efforts to strengthen the safety net
will provide tangible benefits for the economy and families in the coming
decades.
231
C H A P T E R 8
IMPROVING THE QUALITY
OF LIFE THROUGH SMART
REGULATION, INNOVATION,
CLEAN ENERGY, AND
PUBLIC INVESTMENT
Recent years have seen an unprecedented number of official efforts to
improve, develop, and implement new measures of the quality of life
and economic performance. Much of the groundwork for these efforts was
laid in two important National Research Council reports. Nature’s Numbers,
published in 1999, considered how to expand the national income accounts
that track the country’s economic activity to properly take into account the
environment and natural resources. Beyond the Market, published in 2005,
proposed ways to integrate nonmarket activity into the accounts.
This work has implications for economic policy. Carefully designed
regulations can promote economic growth and improve the Nation’s quality
of life. Water pollution, for example, can cause illness and destroy the
livelihood of fishermen and others who rely on a healthy ecosystem to earn
a living. Pollution, as Robert Kennedy noted, does not subtract from the
gross domestic product. Appropriately balanced efforts to restrict harmful
pollution can improve economic performance along with the health and
safety of Americans.
The theme of this chapter is that, properly measured, both economic
growth and the Nation’s well-being can be increased by smart regulation,
innovation and public investment in such fields as medical research, clean
domestic energy and transportation infrastructure.
232 | Chapter 8
A Smart Approach to Regulations
For more than a century, the United States has been a world leader in
protecting the health and safety of its citizens through well-chosen regulations.
Fuchs (1998 and 2010) attributes gains in life expectancy prior to
World War II to improvements in “nonmedical factors: nutrition, sanitation,
housing, and public health measures.” For example, in response to
yellow fever and cholera outbreaks caused by water pollution, the Rivers
and Harbors Act of 1899 gave the Army Corps of Engineers the authority
to regulate the discharge into waterways of “refuse matter of any kind
or description.” Similarly, public health concerns about unsanitary meat
packing conditions and patent medicines containing narcotics gave rise to
the Pure Food and Drug Act of 1906, which authorized the Food and Drug
Administration (FDA) to inspect food and drug products and regulate their
sale. In 1900, roughly one in every 200 Americans was addicted to narcotics
found in patent medicines (DOJ n.d.). Following the disclosure requirements
in the Pure Food and Drug Act, sales of patent medicines containing
those substances fell by nearly a third (Musto 1999).
As society evolves and technology changes, such basic protections
afforded to citizens through regulation are updated and improved. Today,
the water pollution controls provided for in the Rivers and Harbors Act
have been incorporated into more expansive provisions in the Clean Water
Act of 1972 and the Safe Drinking Water Act of 1974, which enable the
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to promulgate regulations with
the goal of making U.S. waters safe for drinking, swimming, and fishing.
Similarly, the Pure Food and Drug Act of 1906 was amended by the Food,
Drug, and Cosmetic Act of 1938 to give the FDA the authority to require
evidence of safety for new drugs and to tighten food quality standards. It was
amended again in 1962 to require manufacturers to prove drug effectiveness
(Randall 2001). Most recently, the Food Safety Modernization Act of 2010
further improved the safety of food sold in the United States by, among
other provisions, giving the FDA the authority to directly issue mandatory
food recalls, requiring food processors to have plans in place for addressing
safety risks, and requiring importers to verify food safety.
Measuring the benefits of regulations for the quality of life is a formidable
task. Some forms of regulation have a positive effect on economic
growth, for example, by improving the health and vitality of the workforce,
by promoting stable and efficient operation of financial markets, by speeding
the adoption of energy-saving technologies, by improving educational
outcomes, or by upgrading the operation of the transportation system.
Much of the benefit from those types of regulations eventually translates
Improving the Quality of Life through Smart Regulation, | 233
Innovation, Clean Energy, and Public Investment
into increases in GDP. In other cases, such as the protection of the National
Park System, safeguards against invasive species, or cleaner lakes for swimming
and fishing, the benefits of regulation help the economy, but are less
easily charted in the national accounts. For example, increased tourism or
higher returns to commercial fishing resulting from cleaner water would be
reflected in GDP, whereas the public’s increased appreciation of that cleaner
water would not be.
Designing Smart Regulations
On January 18, 2011, President Obama issued Executive Order 13563,
“Improving Regulation and Regulatory Review,” which lays out a balanced
approach to regulation—to protect the health and safety of the American
people in a way that maximizes net benefits to society, that uses the best
information available, and that avoids unnecessary or overly burdensome
requirements. The President called for an agency-wide review to reduce
burdensome regulations. Underlying that approach is a belief that a smart,
effective regulatory system depends on careful analysis of costs and benefits,
both before and after regulatory action, including an informed public discussion.
The Executive order directs the Office of Information and Regulatory
Affairs (OIRA) of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) to provide
oversight, transparency, and discipline for executive agencies in the regulatory
process, and coordinates that interagency review of rulemakings to
ensure that regulations are consistent with applicable law. The net benefits
of regulations finalized in 2011 are expected to be at their highest level in
the last 10 years. And monetized savings from the retrospective review of
regulations called for in the new Executive order are likely to exceed $10
billion over the next five years.
Many of those regulations are intended to improve the quality of life
by correcting market failures that lead to unsafe living or working environments.
Effective regulations put into place rules that correct for significant
market failures and thus achieve greater social benefits. “Smart regulations”
are those that maximize the net benefits of a regulatory action to society.
Benefit-cost analysis attempts to quantify and assign dollar values to the
various effects of a regulation, which can be used to determine how it can
reach its goal in the most efficient manner—that is, how it can generate the
largest net benefits (the difference between total benefits and total costs) to
society. Such information is useful for both policymakers and the public,
even when economic efficiency is neither the only nor the overriding public
policy objective, as in the case of protecting privacy.
Benefit-cost analysis is used to estimate likely future benefits and costs
of a proposed regulation, but it can also be used to “l(fā)ook back” at existing
234 | Chapter 8
regulations, based on evidence about the actual, realized benefits and costs of
those regulations. Such retrospective analyses can be used both to improve
existing regulations and to better evaluate new ones.
Smart regulations thus seek to use the best information available in
order to maximize net benefits by setting regulatory stringency at the most
efficient level—the point at which the incremental benefits are equal to the
incremental costs. For example, even though the marginal costs of seat belt
standards increased over time (front-seat shoulder and rear-seat lap belts
were mandated for cars in 1968 and for light trucks and vans in 1971, and
three-point belts were required in the mid-1970s), those costs were far outweighed
by the corresponding number of lives saved per year by seat belts
(DOT 2004; Kahane 2004). The buckle-up laws of the mid-1980s raised the
number of lives saved by wearing seat belts to 6,000 a year by 1988–90, and
subsequent increases in belt use raised the annual number of lives saved to
more than 15,000 in each year from 2003 to 2007. All together, between 1975
and 2009, seat belt regulations saved an estimated 268,000 lives (Kahane
2004; DOT 2009). (For another example of how benefit-cost analysis works,
see Economics Application Box 8-1.)
Smart Regulations in Practice
Benefit-cost analysis has long been used to evaluate regulations within
the Federal Government. For example, the Flood Control Act of 1936
declared that “the Federal Government should improve or participate in the
improvement of navigable waters or their tributaries including watersheds
thereof, for flood-control purposes if the benefits to whomsoever they may
accrue are in excess of the estimated costs, and if the lives and social security
of people are otherwise adversely affected.”
The use of benefit-cost analysis in evaluating Federal regulations has
become widespread since 1981, when President Reagan issued Executive
Order 12291, formally requiring that “regulatory action shall not be undertaken
unless the potential benefits to society for the regulation outweigh the
potential costs to society and that regulatory objectives shall be chosen to
maximize the net benefits to society.” President Clinton issued Executive
Order 12866, which focused OIRA oversight on “significant” rules and
increased transparency. As noted earlier, President Obama issued Executive
Order 13563, which reaffirms the principles in Executive Order 12866 and
outlines a regulatory strategy to support continued economic growth and
job creation. In particular, Executive Order 13563 offers new directions for
regulatory review, including a requirement that agencies “use the best available
techniques to quantify anticipated present and future benefits and costs
as accurately as possible” while authorizing consideration of “values that are
Improving the Quality of Life through Smart Regulation, | 235
Innovation, Clean Energy, and Public Investment
difficult or impossible to quantify, including equity, human dignity, fairness,
and distributive impacts.”
Based on the quantified benefits and costs in current regulations,
smart regulations are generating the highest level of net benefits for U.S. citizens
in the last decade. In calendar year 2011, the Administration completed
740 regulatory reviews, 336 of which were interim final or final rules from
executive agencies. Of the interim final and final rules reviewed, 18 percent
were “economically significant,” meaning that they are anticipated to have
an effect on the economy of more than $100 million in any given year. Those
economically significant rules are expected to result in $15 billion in costs
and $116 billion in benefits annually (in 2001 dollars). Over the past three
calendar years, the annualized net benefits of completed rules have totaled
about $155 billion. In 2011 alone, annualized net benefits totaled more than
$101 billion. Those figures reflect an estimate of not only purely monetary
savings, but also an estimate of the monetary value of prevented deaths, illnesses,
and injuries. Figure 8-1 shows the benefits and costs of regulations,
which are detailed in the agencies’ Regulatory Impact Assessments for each
economically significant rule and summarized annually in OMB’s annual
Regulatory-Right-to-Know report to Congress.
Data and estimation methods have improved substantially over time,
as have modeling tools for projecting a regulation’s effect into the future. For
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Billions of 2001 dollars
Figure 8-1
Benefits and Costs of Regulations, 2001─2011
Net benefits
Note: Total benefits, total costs, and net benefits are based on the midpoints of agency
estimates for regulations completed during the calendar year.
Source: Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs.
Total benefits
Total costs
236 | Chapter 8
Economics Application Box 8-1: Comparing Benefits and Costs
How do policymakers determine whether a regulation is a smart
regulation? For example, in 2007, the Department of Transportation
(DOT) decided to require that all new passenger vehicles weighing less
than 10,000 pounds be equipped with electronic stability control (ESC)
systems, which reduce crashes by improving braking in critical situations
when the driver is beginning to lose control. This rule will increase
the fraction of new vehicles with ESC from 29 percent in 2006 to 100
percent in 2012. How did the DOT decide this was a smart regulation?
First, the DOT identified what is arguably a market failure: a
relatively affordable technology existed that lowered the risk of a crash,
but it was not being offered by some manufacturers and, when offered
the choice, many consumers declined. This market failure was caused
by asymmetric information (drivers purchasing a vehicle could not
fully assess the protection afforded by ESC systems) and by a negative
externality (consumers purchasing a car without an ESC system did not
fully account for the risks of a crash to others).a
Second, the DOT then examined the likely costs and benefits of
equipping all passenger cars and light trucks/vans with ESC by model
year 2012. Approximately 17 million vehicles will be subject to this regulation;
however, DOT estimates that as of 2011, manufacturers would
have installed ESC in 71 percent of their fleet absent the rulemaking.
Therefore, both the benefits and costs were calculated by raising ESC
installation from that baseline of 71 percent to 100 percent. The benefits
of the rule include reductions in fatalities, injuries, property damage,
and travel delays, all resulting from fewer accidents. To monetize those
benefits, the DOT multiplied the total number of loss-of-control crashes
by the average effectiveness of ESC systems and found that 67,000–
91,000 crashes would be avoided each year. Using historical accident
data, DOT estimated that a decline of 67,000 crashes would reduce total
annual fatalities by 1,547 and decrease total annual injuries by 46,896.b
The monetary value of those benefits depends on the discount
rate, that is, on how much benefits in the future are worth today (a high
discount rate implies that people discount the future more and thus any
benefits that accrue in the future would be valued less today). At a 7
percent discount rate, the reduction in injuries and fatalities translates
into $6.4 billion in benefits; at a 3 percent discount rate, those benefits
are $8.0 billion, as the Box Table shows. To determine the noninjury
component of benefits, the DOT multiplied the individual unit costs for
travel delays and property damage by the 67,000 crashes that would be
prevented by the rule, yielding $247 million in benefits at the discount
rate of 7 percent.
Improving the Quality of Life through Smart Regulation, | 237
Innovation, Clean Energy, and Public Investment
The DOT determined that production costs would rise by between
$111 and $479 for each affected vehicle, depending on whether the
vehicle was already equipped with anti-lock braking systems, a necessary
component of ESC. The expected costs of the standard above the baseline
total $985 million. Because the average weight of passenger cars is
expected to increase by 2.1 pounds as a result of the new equipment, the
lifetime fuel use of those vehicles is expected to go up by 2.6 gallons. At
discount rates of 7 percent and 3 percent, the total additional fuel costs
are $21.8 million and $26.8 million, respectively. Summing vehicle and
fuel costs gave the total costs of the regulation: about $1.0 billion. Net
benefits, then, are the difference between total costs and total benefits,
or between $5.6 billion and $7.3 billion each year for the lower range of
accident prevention.
a For further discussion of market failures and automobile safety standards, see
Mannering and Winston (1995), Arnould and Grabowski (1981) and Viscusi and
Gayer (2002).
b The appropriateness of including private benefits net of private costs in a
benefit-cost analysis varies from rule to rule. By including private net benefits—
the value of reducing injuries and fatalities of the consumers minus the purchase
cost of the technology—the DOT is making the implicit assumption that
consumers have made a suboptimal purchasing decision (one of the market
failures being addressed by the regulation). However, if consumers do not face an
information problem, a traditional approach would assume that consumers have
made the purchasing decision that maximizes their welfare. If this were the case,
it would be inappropriate to include those private net benefits in the analysis. For
further discussion, see Gayer (2011).
Annual Costs and Benefits by Discount Rate
Millions of 2005 dollars
3%
discount
7%
discount
Injury and fatality benefits $7,965 $6,360
Savings from reduced property damage and travel delays 309 247
Total benefits 8,274 6,607
Vehicle costs 985 985
Fuel costs 27 22
Total costs 1,012 1,007
Net benefits 7,262 5,600
Note: Vehicle costs are not discounted, because they occur when the vehicle is purchased, whereas
benefits occur over the vehicle’s lifetime and are discounted back to the time of purchase.
Source: Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (2007).
238 | Chapter 8
example, the health benefits from reducing different air pollutants over different
time periods and populations have been estimated by epidemiologists
using air quality monitoring data and various health endpoints (EPA 2011a).
Improvements in computing power and data records now allow air quality
modelers to forecast the effects of regulatory actions on future air quality
under different scenarios. Combining those estimates allows policymakers
to weigh the expected health results of a given air quality regulation with the
expected costs associated with the controls required by the rule.
A peer-reviewed study by the EPA using the Criteria Air Pollutant
Modeling System estimated that the Clean Air Act prevented more than
160,000 premature deaths, 54,000 cases of chronic bronchitis, 130,000 nonfatal
heart attacks, and 1.7 million cases of asthma exacerbation between
1990 and 2010. Those adverse health outcomes could have led to 86,000
emergency room visits for respiratory problems, 3.2 million lost school days,
and 13 million lost work days (EPA 2011b).
Some health benefits from Clean Air Act regulations will likely raise
economic growth indirectly and over time through intermediate factors.
For example, a healthier population will arguably be a more productive
one, a change that can be measured in improved labor productivity. A
growing consensus has identified certain of those intermediate drivers of
growth, including increased human capital, capital investment, research
and development, economic competition, physical infrastructure, and good
governance. Some evidence strongly suggests that regulations promoting
educational attainment may improve human capital accumulation, thereby
increasing economic growth over time (for example, see Cohen and Soto
2007). Other studies show a positive link between increased life expectancy
and economic growth. A survey of the existing literature on health and
economic outcomes (Bloom et al. 2004) finds in cross-country analysis that
a one-year increase in life expectancy generates a 4 percent increase in economic
output, controlling for other variables. Similarly, Murphy and Topel
(2006) find that progress made battling various diseases after 1970 added
about $3.2 trillion a year to national wealth.
Retrospective Analysis
The prospective benefit-cost analysis that goes into crafting smart,
efficient regulations is necessarily fraught with uncertainty. Prospective
analysis requires that the costs and benefits of a regulation be identified
and quantified before (ex-ante) the regulation is implemented. Only after a
Improving the Quality of Life through Smart Regulation, | 239
Innovation, Clean Energy, and Public Investment
regulation has gone into effect can its actual (ex-post) effects become known
(see Data Watch 8-1).1
Changes in technology often make pollution abatement cheaper. For
example, the actual costs to utilities of the cap-and-trade system for sulfur
dioxide allowances set up by the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 were
much lower than had been predicted. Scrubbing technologies turned out
to be more efficient at removing sulfur dioxide from emissions, and power
plants were able to blend a higher percentage of cheaper, low-sulfur coal
than had initially been assumed. Moreover, the benefits of reducing sulfur
dioxide emissions have since been found to be much larger than originally
thought. As a result, subsequent regulations for utilities have tightened controls
on those emissions.
Similarly, during the 1970s, automobile technologies were improved
by new pollution standards. Regulators were phasing lead out of gasoline,
and again the costs of the regulation were overestimated and the benefits
underestimated. Lead impairs brain development in children and has been
linked to serious health problems in adults such as hypertension, heart
attacks, and premature death (Lovei 1998). Concern about high blood lead
concentrations in the U.S. population led the EPA to begin in 1974 to phase
in a stringent standard reducing the amount of lead allowed in the gasoline
supply. Subsequent studies found that the annual benefits of banning lead
in gasoline would be more than $6 billion (in 1983 dollars), but would cost
around $500 million a year (Schwartz 1985). Harrington, Morgenstern, and
Nelson (1999) note that those costs may have been overstated, but that it was
difficult to disentangle the effects of a phase-out of leaded gasoline from the
much larger effect of changes in oil markets around that time. Research also
found that the benefits of lowering lead exposure were greater than initially
thought. The EPA’s 1985 benefit estimate implied that reducing mean blood
lead concentrations in the population by 1 microgram per deciliter (or 1 μg/
dl) was worth at least $3.5 billion a year (Schwartz 1994). By 1994, however,
researchers were finding that a reduction of 1 μg/dl in mean blood lead
concentrations resulted in much greater benefits than earlier estimates—as
high as $17.2 billion a year (1989 dollars) (Schwartz 1994). The phase-out
of leaded gasoline was completed in 1995; by then the average blood lead
concentration was approximately 2.3 μg/dl, down from more than 15 μg/dl
in the early 1970s (Weaver 1999).
1 Retrospective analyses of benefits and costs are also subject to uncertainty, because they
require evaluation of a counterfactual scenario in which the rule was not adopted. Identifying
that counterfactual is often difficult, in part because changes that occurred due to the rule are
difficult to distinguish from changes that the industry would have adopted voluntarily.
240 | Chapter 8
“Look-Back” Initiative
President Obama’s Executive Order 13563, issued in 2011, directed
executive agencies to conduct retrospective reviews of their regulations to
determine whether any of the agencies’ regulations should be modified,
streamlined, expanded, or repealed. This Executive order was followed by
Executive Order 13579, which called on independent agencies to conduct
such retrospective reviews to the extent possible. Look-back exercises enable
regulatory agencies to learn whether they can increase net benefits by modifying
existing regulations, expanding regulations, or even eliminating existing
regulations that may turn out to be ineffective or duplicative.
Data Watch 8-1: The Value of Information—the PACE Survey
One of the few data sources for benchmarking costs of air and water
pollution controls is the Pollution Abatement Costs and Expenditures
(PACE) survey, which recently has been funded by the Environmental
Protection Agency (EPA) and administered by the Census Bureau. From
1973 to 1994, the PACE survey was administered annually to nearly
20,000 manufacturing and mining facilities and electric utilities. Since
1994, because of resource constraints, the Census Bureau has conducted
this survey only twice (for 1999 and 2005). To estimate the overall regulatory
burden facing American manufacturers, the PACE survey collects
data on overall pollution abatement expenditures by manufacturers for
treatment, prevention, recycling, and disposal, rather than trying to
allocate costs to specific regulations. It is the only survey that measures
environmental compliance costs at both the individual and aggregate
levels (Ross et al. 2004).
Pollution equipment expenditures have fallen over time, on average
accounting for 7 percent of all investments made by manufacturing
industries in the early 1990s and 4 percent in 2005. There is considerable
variation in spending across industries, but given that pollution levels
(and the negative externalities associated with pollution) also vary by
industry, that is neither surprising nor necessarily suboptimal.
The EPA has used PACE data to estimate the cost of both past
and proposed regulations (see for example, Gallaher, Morgan and
Shadbegian 2008). Academics have used the data set to investigate the
relationship between EPA regulations and economic outcomes. For
example, Levinson (1999) used the PACE data to develop a new index of
state environmental compliance costs. Similarly, Shadbegian and Gray
(2005) examined the relationship between of pollution abatement and
productivity. And Becker (2005) found expenditures on environmental
compliance for small facilities differ from larger facilities.
Improving the Quality of Life through Smart Regulation, | 241
Innovation, Clean Energy, and Public Investment
Incorporating ex-post benefits and costs of regulations is the key goal
of the new Executive order requiring agencies to conduct retrospective
reviews of their regulations. In the past, agencies have undertaken such
reviews in certain situations but only on an ad hoc basis. The new Executive
order aims to improve regulatory analyses by providing a formalized process
for incorporating new information into regulations and for gaining insight
into the costs and benefits borne by the private sector in practice.
The President’s regulatory look-back initiative has produced more
than 500 reform proposals, detailed in 26 agency plans, and monetized savings
from this review are likely to exceed $10 billion over the next five years.
A number of recent actions eliminate or streamline unjustified or excessive
regulations, and the Administration has put in place an improved regulatory
system that will generate more current and accurate information on
regulatory costs and benefits. Moreover, pursuant to Executive Order 13579,
issued in July 2011, some of the major independent regulatory agencies have
also issued preliminary retrospective review plans for public comment.2 Five
examples illustrate the effectiveness of the look-back initiatives.
First, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA),
has announced a final rule that will eliminate redundant reporting burdens;
the regulation is expected to save employers 1.9 million hours and $40 million
annually. OSHA also plans to finalize a rule projected to result in more
than $585 million in savings each year by making U.S. hazard classifications
and labels consistent with other nations.
Second, since the 1970s, the EPA has treated milk as “oil” subject
to regulations designed to prevent oil spills. In response to feedback from
the agriculture community and the President’s Executive order, the EPA
recently concluded that the rules placed unjustifiable burdens on dairy farmers
and decided to exempt milk from those regulations. That exemption will
save the dairy industry, including many small businesses, as much as $148
million per year.
Third, to reduce burdens on railroads, the Department of
Transportation has proposed to refine its requirements for tracks that are to
be equipped with positive train controls. This equipment can automatically
control a train in emergency circumstances, reducing the risk of an accident.
The potential refinements would eliminate the need for costly wayside components
and mitigation measures along as much as 10,000 miles of track
where they are not needed for safety. The initial 5-year savings are expected
to be as high as $335 million, with total 20-year savings of up to $778 million.
2 Specific retrospective analyses by executive and independent agencies can generally be found
on the relevant websites; for example, the Federal Trade Commission provides information on
its retrospective review process at http://www.ftc.gov/ftc/regreview/index.shtml.
242 | Chapter 8
Fourth, the EPA has proposed to eliminate a requirement for air pollution
vapor recovery systems at local gas stations in many states, on the
ground that modern vehicles already have effective air pollution control
technologies. The anticipated annual savings from eliminating the requirement
are estimated to be as high as $87 million.
Fifth, the Health and Human Services Department has proposed or
finalized several rules that reduce regulatory burdens and restrictions on
doctors and hospitals and that are expected to save more than $5 billion over
the next five years.
There are many other look-back efforts—in all, the initial round of
retrospective proposals is expected to eliminate millions of hours of required
paperwork for individuals, businesses, and State and local governments and
to save billions of dollars.
Improvements in Everyday Life
Every time Americans drive a car, take a breath, swim in a lake, or take
a medication they are benefiting from regulations. As noted, such improvements
in quality of life often show up in national accounts only as a fraction
of their total benefit to society. For example, although the growth and size
of the pharmaceutical industry are reflected in GDP, the value of assurances
given to the U.S. public that the medicines they are taking have been tested
and verified to be effective and safe goes far beyond the measured value of
that sector to the national economy.
Similarly, the Clean Water Act and its associated permitting requirements
have reduced effluent discharge into U.S. streams, lakes, and estuaries.
Putting a price tag on the benefits of being able to swim, fish, and boat
in those bodies of water is difficult. Regardless of the value, some of those
benefits (for example, increasing expenditures on fishing equipment and
recreation) will show up in a calculation of GDP, while many others (such as
reducing the level of fecal coliform in the water) will not. The EPA estimates
the benefits of reducing discharge of conventional pollutants to U.S. rivers
and streams to be approximately $11 billion annually (Bingham et al. 2000).
The EPA’s Superfund program, which identifies, investigates, and
cleans the Nation’s most contaminated hazardous waste sites, has also
improved public health. Since 1980 the Superfund program has prevented
millions of people from being exposed to hazardous substances by requiring
protective and containment measures and the removal from industrial sites
of many millions of tons of material contaminated with toxic chemicals such
as lead, arsenic, mercury, and benzene (EPA 2011c). Studies have shown
that Superfund cleanups have lowered the risk of acute poisoning, improved
infant health, and decreased the risk of cancer (Currie, Greenstone, and
Improving the Quality of Life through Smart Regulation, | 243
Innovation, Clean Energy, and Public Investment
Moretti 2011; and EPA 2011c). Those improvements are generally not captured
well in GDP for any given year.
Even though smart regulations can impose restrictions on the private
sector, as Figure 8-2 illustrates, the resulting benefits do not come at the
cost of prosperity or sacrifices in U.S. standards of living. Over a period of
decades, air quality has improved while the economy has grown; indeed, the
demand for clean air and water has risen along with income across countries
(see for example, Grossman and Krueger 1995; and World Bank 1992).
Even though those benefits do not show up directly in GDP measures, they
are consistent with increases in conventional (albeit incomplete) measures
of growth. Per capita GDP has shown substantial growth between 1980 and
2010, rising by 65 percent, while at the same time per capita emissions of
criteria pollutants (lead, carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides,
particulate matter, and ozone) have declined by nearly 75 percent. Similar
achievements have been made in other areas as well. The number of fatalities
on U.S. roads per million vehicle miles traveled (VMT) has declined by
67 percent between 1980 and 2010, while VMT per capita increased by 44
percent, reflecting the effectiveness of road and vehicle safety regulations.
Innovation
Innovation, loosely defined as the introduction of a new or improved
product, service, or process, is the primary source of long-run increases in
productivity and human welfare (Grossman and Helpman 1991). When new
ideas are integrated into the economy, they offer new possibilities for both
production and consumption. Innovation comes in two general forms: process
and product innovation. Process innovations involve new or improved
methods of production or distribution, often as firms seek to reduce costs.
The cost savings are reflected in conventional accounting statistics as greater
productivity. Over time, rising productivity drives the growth in the amount
of output that the economy can produce. By contrast, product innovations
introduce new or improved products or services into the marketplace. As
noted, consumers benefit from product innovations in ways that conventional
accounting statistics do not adequately measure.
Although there is no perfect measure of the importance of innovation
to an economy, by many measures innovation has played an increasingly
important role in the U.S. economy in recent decades. For example, the
industries classified by the OECD as “knowledge- and technology-intensive”
have steadily increased as a share of the U.S. economy, from 34 percent
of GDP in 1992 to 40 percent in 2010, according to the National Science
Foundation (2010; 2012).
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Private-sector competition is the primary driver of innovation. Firms
in innovative industries must continually work to improve their products
or increase their efficiency to avoid losing market share to competitors.
Businesses that successfully invest in innovations are rewarded in the
marketplace. Incentives for businesses to invest in innovation are often less
than optimal from the perspective of society as a whole, however, primarily
because the innovator may not be able to capture all of the benefits generated
by the innovation. The positive spillovers from innovation mean that
the private returns from innovation will often be less than the social returns,
particularly when it comes to basic research. Private firms have limited
incentive to conduct basic scientific research from which they generally can
capture only a small fraction of the value that emerges from that research. As
a result, private markets may lead to underinvestment in basic science and
limited diffusion of scientific advances.
Because private incentives to invest in innovation are often inadequate,
public-sector support for innovation has important benefits. Government
can promote innovation in many ways. By operating a well-functioning
system of intellectual property rights, the government can help innovators
earn returns commensurate with the social value of their innovations.
Government can increase investment in innovation through research
and development (R&D) expenditures, both by direct funding and by tax
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Figure 8-2
Economic Growth, Vehicle Safety, and Air Quality, 1980─2010
Percent change from 1980
Note: VMT is vehicle miles traveled. Criteria emissions are linearly interpolated from 5-
year interval data between 1980 and 2010.
Source: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration; Federal Highway
Administration; Environmental Protection Agency; Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Per capita emissions of
criteria pollutants
Per capita real GDP
Per capita VMT
Fatalities per 100
million VMT
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Innovation, Clean Energy, and Public Investment
incentives. It can facilitate the commercialization of innovations by removing
barriers that prevent the private sector from transforming inventions
into marketable products. It can provide infrastructure necessary for innovation,
for example by allocating spectrum to support the growth of wireless
broadband, itself an important platform for innovation in mobile devices,
applications, and services. The government can also target innovation initiatives
to areas of key public importance, including education, health care,
and energy. This section of the chapter discusses these issues and describes
some of the Federal Government’s current efforts to promote innovation in
the U.S. economy.
Measuring Innovation
Innovation’s crucial role in economic growth and welfare has
prompted efforts to improve the tools to measure it. One longstanding
approach to measuring innovation is to infer that any economic growth
not attributable to additional capital and labor must be due to some sort of
“technical change.” This so-called “Solow residual” approach (Solow 1957),
however, leaves unanswered many questions about the nature of the technical
change.
Data on patenting activity can provide a useful, if imperfect, measure
of innovation. Although many innovations are kept secret to preserve competitive
advantage, many others are made public through patent filings. The
innovations for which patents are granted vary greatly in their significance,
however, and a raw count of patents cannot account for these differences.
Moreover, increases in patent activity over time may be attributable, at least
in part, to more aggressive patenting of marginal innovations rather than
increases in innovation itself (Hall and Ziedonis 2001). To address these
limitations, studies of innovation have often relied on measures of patent
citations. For example, the number of times a firm’s patents are cited by
other patent applications is more closely correlated with the firm’s market
value than is the raw number of patents it holds (Hall et al. 2001).
New measurement efforts have focused on the funds allocated to R&D
within the economy. Historically, R&D has been treated as an intermediate
input to the production process and is therefore excluded from GDP
estimates. Beginning in 2013, the GDP estimates produced by the Bureau of
Economic Analysis (BEA) will include R&D under the category of investment,
increasing measured GDP. Spending on R&D is large and growing;
if the new definition had been in effect earlier, current-dollar GDP in 2007
would have been, on average 2.7, percent higher, and R&D would have
accounted for 6.3 percent of real GDP growth between 1998 and 2007.
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In addition, to help improve understanding of the role of R&D in fostering
innovation, the Census Bureau and the National Science Foundation
(NS,F) have introduced the Business R&D and Innovation Survey. This new
survey combines firm-level data on R&D expenditures with measures of
new or improved products or processes and patenting and licensing activity.
The first group of 40,000 for-profit firms was surveyed in 2009, and some
preliminary findings have been reported. For example, the NSF reports that
companies that invest in R&D exhibit far higher rates of innovation than
other firms (Boroush 2010).
Measuring innovation is particularly challenging in the growing
medical care sector. For example, medical science has established that aspirin—
an old and inexpensive product—can substantially reduce heart attack
risk. Patients have seen enormous benefits from that scientific advancement,
but those benefits are not captured by estimates of GDP. The National
Institute on Aging has sponsored research on the development of national
health accounts that would gauge the population’s health status and measure
how medical care and other factors affect health.
Intellectual Property Rights and Patent Reform
Innovation is spurred in part by the desire to reap rewards for developing
new products and services that people will value. The central purpose
of intellectual property (IP) rights, which include patents, trademarks, and
copyrights, is to promote innovation by giving IP owners the right to exclude
others from making use of their novel product or service. Well-designed IP
rights enhance the private returns to innovation and bring them closer to the
social returns, thereby increasing the incentives to invest in socially valuable
innovation. As President Lincoln famously said, the patent system “added
the fuel of interest to the fire of genius” (Edwards 2006).3
The United States has long had a robust system of IP rights. In fact, one
of the powers explicitly given Congress in the Constitution is “To promote
the Progress of Science and useful Arts, by securing for limited Times to
Authors and Inventors the exclusive Right to their respective Writings and
Discoveries.” In recent years, however, many observers have raised concerns
about the U.S. patent system. For example, the Federal Trade Commission
(FTC 2003) describes concerns that the patent system has failed to keep up
with the challenges posed by the growth of the knowledge-based economy.
Similarly, the National Academy of Science (NRC 2004) describes unease
among academics and practitioners that “the escalation in the number
of patents, possibly encouraged by a lowering of the threshold to their
3 President Lincoln was himself an inventor. He was granted patent no. 6469 in 1849 for a
flotation system for lifting riverboats stuck on sandbars.
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Innovation, Clean Energy, and Public Investment
acquisition, was creating thickets of rights that could impede innovation.”
Shapiro (2008) sees the core problem as being that, in some circumstances,
“the patent system predictably provides excessive rewards to patent holders.”
The opportunity for excessive returns can arise when patents are issued
for technologies that are not genuinely novel or when a patent covers a small
component of a complex product that allows the patent’s owner to extract
royalties disproportionate to the incremental value of the component. Some
empirical evidence suggests that, at least in certain industries, greater patenting
activity has in fact led to reduced R&D intensity (Hunt and Bessen 2004).
To address concerns about the performance of the patent system,
President Obama, on September 16, 2011, signed into law the America
Invents Act, the most significant reform of U.S. patent law since 1952. By
allowing third parties to provide the patent office with additional information
that may be helpful in assessing the novelty of an invention for which
a patent application has been filed, the new law will reduce the number of
improperly issued patents and thus increase “patent quality.” The law will
also reduce unnecessary litigation by creating new ways of resolving patent
disputes more quickly and cheaply, allowing inventors to invest with more
confidence in the validity of their IP rights while reducing the drag on
innovation caused by improperly granted patents. The law will also reduce
wait times for patent applicants by giving the U.S. Patent and Trademark
Office more resources to reduce the backlog of applications and by creating a
“fast-track option” for time-sensitive patent applications such as those from
fast-growing startups or entrepreneurs seeking venture capital. Last, the new
law will harmonize the American patent system with patent systems in the
rest of the world by adopting a “first inventor to file” system. This change
will make the U.S. system more efficient and predictable, allowing innovative
entrepreneurs to market their products more easily in the United States
while simultaneously exporting them abroad.
Private and Public Investments in R&D
R&D is a critical driver of innovation. Investments aimed at creating
new knowledge or applying existing knowledge in new ways are often a
necessary precursor to developing new or improved products or processes
or entire new industries. Although innovative activities extend far beyond
conventional R&D, and innovations arise in industries that perform little
R&D as such, investing in R&D is generally an important element of innovative
activity.
A large body of research confirms that investments in R&D increase
productivity growth (CBO 2005). Other research demonstrates that the
social returns to R&D investment are generally substantially greater than
248 | Chapter 8
the private returns. For example, Nordhaus (2004) concludes that “only a
minuscule fraction of the social returns from technological advances over
the 1948–2001 period was captured by producers, indicating that most of
the benefits of technological change are passed on to consumers.” (See also
Hall, Mairesse, and Mohnen 2009; Bloom, Schankerman, and Van Reenen
2010; and Jones and Williams 1998.) These findings support the conclusion
that R&D investments often have important positive spillover effects that
prevent private firms from fully capturing the benefits of their innovations,
thus giving them inadequate incentives to invest in R&D. In addition,
Hall (2002) finds evidence that capital market imperfections may lead to
underinvestment in R&D even in the absence of these spillovers. In short,
economics research provides persuasive support for a robust government
role in promoting R&D.
The United States is a world leader in R&D investments. With an
estimated $400 billion in public and private expenditures in 2009, the United
States invested more in R&D than China, Japan, and Germany combined.
Moreover, R&D spending as a share of the U.S. economy has been increasing
in recent years, with the ratio of R&D spending to GDP reaching nearly
2.9 percent in 2009, the highest since the 1960s. During that interval, however,
the composition of U.S. R&D spending shifted dramatically. During
the 1950s and 1960s, the majority of total R&D expenditures was federally
funded; today nonfederal sources predominate. Private industry investments
have consistently accounted for about 90 percent of all nonfederal
R&D expenditures.
Despite the increasing role of private-sector investment in R&D,
public support for R&D remains critically important, particularly in basic
research, which aims to expand scientific knowledge and thus does not
generally have immediate commercial applications. Private firms can thus
find it especially difficult to capture the benefits that stem from this research,
and the positive spillover effects of basic research can be especially large. For
example, NSF-funded basic research into the principle of nuclear magnetic
resonance ultimately led to the development of magnetic resonance imaging
(MRI) machines, a medical imaging technology that has significantly
improved diagnosis for cancer and other conditions. Not surprisingly, the
Federal Government is a strong supporter of basic research. In 2008, while
the Federal Government accounted for only 15 percent of U.S. development
expenditures and less than one-third of applied research expenditures, it
accounted for nearly 60 percent of the Nation’s basic research expenditures.
Overall, the Federal Government provides substantial support for
R&D. In 2009, when the Recovery Act helped Federal R&D spending reach
1.18 percent of GDP, the U.S. Government invested a greater share of GDP
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Innovation, Clean Energy, and Public Investment
in R&D than did the government of any other OECD country. Even in
other years, the U.S. Government’s R&D investments relative to GDP have
substantially exceeded the OECD average. Although this largely reflects U.S.
dominance in military R&D (national defense has historically accounted for
more than half of Federal R&D expenditures), many defense-related innovations
ultimately have significant benefits in the private sector. Research
into communications networks by the Defense Advanced Research Projects
Agency, for example, ultimately led to the emergence of the Internet.
Recognizing the importance of R&D for innovation, in April 2009, the
President set the goal of devoting more than 3 percent of GDP to R&D, both
public and private—a share that surpasses the record of almost 2.9 percent
set in 1964 at the height of the space race. In its effort to reach this goal, the
Administration has supported large increases in Federal R&D funding. The
Recovery Act’s investment of $18.3 billion in research funding was part of
the largest annual increase in R&D funding in U.S. history. The President’s
Fiscal Year 2013 Budget has proposed additional support for science and
basic research, making progress toward the goal of doubling funding for
three key basic research agencies—the National Science Foundation, the
Office of Science in the Department of Energy, and the National Institute of
Standards and Technology. A particular success story is the Small Business
Innovation Research (SBIR) and Small Business Technology Transfer
(SBTT) programs, competitive programs that provide about $2.5 billion
annually to the most promising research projects at small firms. From 2002
to 2006, about one-fourth of the “top 100” innovations selected by R&D
Magazine came from companies that had received an SBIR grant at some
point in their history. Recognizing the importance of continuing these successes,
on December 31, 2011, President Obama signed a bill reauthorizing
the SBIR and SBTT programs for the next six years.
In addition to direct Federal funding for R&D, the Administration
has promoted incentives to support private R&D investment. The Research
and Experimentation tax credit, for example, enacted in 1981, provides a
tax credit based on qualified research expenses to encourage businesses to
increase their investments. Subsidizing this activity through the tax system
allows the private sector, rather than the government, to choose the research
projects and the method for conducting the research. Recent studies show
that the credit is a cost-effective way to encourage research spending (U.S.
Treasury 2011). On September 8, 2010, the President proposed to expand
and simplify the credit and to make it permanent; that proposal is also
included in the President’s FY 2013 Budget. The proposal will further
enhance private firms’ incentives to invest in research and will provide
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businesses with assurance that the credit will be available for the duration of
long-term research projects.
Commercialization
An important stage in the process of innovation is commercialization
of new technologies. New inventions and new knowledge alone will have
little effect on economic welfare unless they are converted into marketable
products or processes that change how firms do business. One obstacle to
realizing the economic benefits of innovation is the difficulty in transferring
new ideas from universities and Federal laboratories to the marketplace. For
example, recent empirical studies point to substantial frictions attributable
to licensing costs and show large gains in innovation when these frictions
are reduced (Williams 2010). Other researchers have found that universities
often adopt technology transfer policies that constrain the volume of
innovations brought into the marketplace (Litan, Mitchell, and Reddy 2007).
As the President announced in January 2011, one of the goals of the
Administration’s “Startup America” campaign is to foster innovation by
increasing the rate of technology transfer. Since then, the Administration
has announced a number of initiatives in support of this goal. In October
2011, the President issued a Presidential Memorandum directing the heads
of Executive departments and agencies to take action to accelerate technology
transfer and commercialization of Federal research in support of
high-growth businesses. The National Center for Advancing Translational
Sciences at the National Institutes of Health assists biomedical entrepreneurs
by identifying barriers to commercialization and speeding development of
new drugs and diagnostics. The Administration’s National Bioeconomy
Blueprint lays out a number of steps designed to advance biological research
innovations, including reforms to speed commercialization and open new
markets. The NSF’s Innovation Corps program is a public-private partnership
that will connect NSF-funded researchers with private-sector mentors
who will help to transform the results of scientific research into commercially
successful technologies. The Department of Energy (DOE) launched
a program called “America’s Next Top Energy Innovator,” which offers
startup companies low-cost and streamlined procedures for licensing new
energy technologies patented by DOE labs. Together, the Administration’s
“l(fā)ab-to-market” initiatives will encourage universities and government
research centers to streamline their technology transfer procedures, support
additional government-industry collaboration, and encourage the commercialization
of novel technologies flowing from research programs—in short,
they will facilitate the commercialization phase of the process of innovation.
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Innovation, Clean Energy, and Public Investment
Wireless Broadband and Spectrum Policy
Information and communication technology (ICT) is vitally important
to the U.S. economy. A large body of research has linked economic
growth in recent decades with ICT expansion. For example, Roller and
Waverman (2001) estimate that one-third of the growth in per capita GDP
in 21 developed economies from 1970 to 1990 is attributable to investments
in telecommunications infrastructure. Similarly, Bloom, Sadun, and van
Reenen (2007) note that the great majority of growth in U.S. productivity
since the mid-1990s has been in sectors that either intensively use or produce
information technologies.4
Wireless broadband is a form of ICT that can transform many different
areas of the American economy by providing a platform for innovation,
in areas ranging from media-rich consumer products to health care and
education technologies. Much of the investment necessary to realize the
potential of wireless broadband will come from the private sector. According
to the Census Bureau, total capital spending by wireless telecommunications
carriers has exceeded $20 billion in each year since 2000 (U.S. Census
Bureau 2011). Public support is necessary in some important areas, including
developing a nationwide wireless broadband network for public safety
and extending wireless broadband services into rural communities, both of
which are discussed in this chapter in the section on infrastructure. Another
important way that the government can help to support the growth of wireless
broadband is by making more spectrum available, both for licensed and
unlicensed use. With the proliferation of smartphones, tablets, and other
mobile devices with Internet access, mobile data traffic has been growing
tremendously, more than doubling between 2009 and 2010, and industry
forecasters expect data traffic to continue to grow rapidly (Cisco 2011). To
accommodate this surging demand, wireless carriers will need access to
additional spectrum.
In early 2011, President Obama introduced his National Wireless
Initiative. The proposal aims to nearly double the spectrum available for
wireless broadband in the next 10 years by freeing up 500 megahertz (MHz)
of spectrum currently allocated to other uses. Some of this spectrum will
be shifted away from Federal Government uses, in part by finding ways to
make more efficient use of the remaining Federal and shared spectrum. Any
changes in the use of Federal spectrum will be designed to ensure that there
is no harmful interference with public safety needs or other critical public
uses of the spectrum. Doubling the spectrum for wireless broadband will
4 Jorgenson et al. (2008) estimate that ICT accounted for 59 percent of productivity growth
during 1995–2000 and 38 percent during 2000–2006. Most recently, Brynjolfsson and Saunders
(2010) conclude that most U.S. productivity growth since 1995 can be attributed to ICT.
252 | Chapter 8
also require changes in commercially licensed spectrum. Shifting to wireless
broadband a portion of the spectrum now licensed for over-the-air television
broadcasting will yield substantial economic benefits. To ensure that
commercially held spectrum is reallocated efficiently and that the economic
benefits are widely shared, the Administration supports using “voluntary
incentive auctions” to guide the reallocation. These auctions will allow
existing licensees to receive a portion of the auction proceeds in exchange
for voluntarily making their spectrum available for wireless broadband.
The auctions will also generate substantial revenues for the U.S. Treasury,
providing support for important goals, including deficit reduction, R&D
for emerging wireless technologies, and a nationwide interoperable wireless
broadband network for public safety.
Clean & Secure Energy
In his State of the Union address, President Obama, noted that, “This
country needs an all-out, all-of-the-above strategy that develops every available
source of American energy. A strategy that’s cleaner, cheaper, and full
of new jobs.” The President has outlined goals that will set the United States
on a path toward lowering its dependence on oil and developing cleaner
domestic energy sources that reduce emissions of air pollutants. Those
include goals to continue focusing on increasing responsible domestic oil
and gas production, to reduce foreign oil imports by a third by 2025, and
to increase the share of electricity generated from clean energy sources—
including nuclear power, natural gas, clean coal, and renewables like wind
and solar—to 80 percent by 2035.
The President has outlined a Blueprint for a Secure Energy Future to
guide the Nation’s transition to a clean and secure energy economy. While
the market provides key signals that greatly influence energy production and
consumption decisions, energy markets are subject to market failures, so the
government has an important role to play in guiding the mix of energy supplies
and uses that is best for the Nation. The government also has a role to
play in increasing energy security, reducing air pollution, promoting clean
energy through investments in innovation and infrastructure, and establishing
rules of the road that promote a cleaner and more secure energy future.
Enhancing Energy Security
The short-run demand for energy is relatively inelastic, so consumers
will bear the brunt of sudden, unexpected energy supply disruptions in the
form of price increases, causing them to reduce their consumption of other
goods and services, or reduce savings. Elevated global energy prices can,
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Innovation, Clean Energy, and Public Investment
in turn, slow economic growth. Promoting the development of alternative
energies and energy-efficient technologies reduces the economy’s vulnerability
to international energy supply shocks and improves energy security.
Oil consumption per thousand dollars of real GDP has fallen by about half
since 1980 (from almost one barrel per thousand dollars of GDP in 1980 to
about 0.5 barrel per thousand dollars of GDP in 2010). Despite progress
in reducing the “petroleum intensity” of the economy, vulnerability to
increases in the global market price of crude oil remains. We can improve
energy security by lowering demand for petroleum and by increasing the
supply of domestic conventional and alternative energy.
Reducing Demand
During the past year, the Administration has pursued a course that
reduces demand for petroleum. In November, EPA and DOT proposed
new fuel economy standards for vehicle model years 2017–2025, building
on the successful programs for the 2011 and 2012–2016 model years. These
standards will save consumers money at the pump, dramatically reduce the
Nation’s dependence on oil, and increase investment in new technologies
and new manufacturing here in the United States. Under the proposed
rules, fuel economy standards from the DOT, greenhouse gas (GHG) emission
standards from the EPA, and State of California regulations will be
harmonized and auto companies will be able to rely on well-defined regulatory
targets to help steer their investments in producing advanced vehicles.
Annualized costs of the rule are expected to be between $6.4 billion and
$10.6 billion; annualized fuel savings are expected to range between $20.3
billion and $26.7 billion (2009 dollars). Additional annualized benefits from
improved health, greater energy security, and lower GHG emissions are
expected to range between $5.4 billion and $6.4 billion. Taken together, the
fuel economy standards proposed for model years 2011–2025 are projected
to reduce oil consumption by over 2.2 million barrels per day by 2025, and
save consumers $1.7 trillion in fuel costs.
The President has also proposed a new tax incentive to offset half of
the incremental cost of dedicated alternative-fuel commercial vehicles, such
as natural gas and electric trucks, for a five-year period. In addition, the
President has proposed transforming the individual tax credit for consumers
who purchase advanced vehicles into a rebate.
Increasing Domestic Energy Supplies
The Nation has pursued strategies to safely increase domestic energy
sources. As part of this focus, the President is committed to advancing the
responsible production of domestic oil and natural gas resources. Thanks
254 | Chapter 8
to higher domestic production and lower imports, dependence on foreign
oil is being reduced. In 2010, for the first time in over a decade, the United
States relied on net imports for less than half of the oil we consumed; in
2011, import dependence declined even further, to 45 percent. Since 2007,
the United States has been the leading natural gas producer in the world.
To help ensure safe and responsible development of abundant natural
gas resources, the Administration is taking a number of steps, including:
exploring home grown technologies and methods to improve safety and
environmental performance of shale gas production; encouraging greater
use of natural gas in transportation; and requiring disclosure of chemicals
used in hydraulic fracturing on public lands. As Box 8-1 describes, the
development of unconventional oil and gas deposits across the United States
illustrates how American enterprise and innovation in horizontal drilling
and hydraulic fracturing, combined with government-supported research,
have unlocked vast new domestic oil and gas resources.
The United States has also increased the amount of ethanol and
biodiesel blended into the nation’s fuel supply. In 2011, ethanol and biodiesel
production in the United States were estimated by the U.S. Energy
Information Administration (EIA) to be roughly 14 billion gallons and 920
million gallons, respectively (EIA 2012). That represented about 10 percent
of U.S. gasoline demand and 2 percent of diesel demand for 2011. In March
2011, the President set the goal of breaking ground on at least four commercial-
scale cellulosic or advanced bio-refineries over the next two years,
and we are on track to exceed that goal. In addition, the Administration
announced a partnership between the Departments of Agriculture, Energy
and the Navy to invest in multiple domestic commercial or pre-commercial
scale bio-refineries to produce advanced “drop-in” biofuels, substitutes for
diesel and jet fuel.
Reducing Emissions
The Administration has taken historic steps to address air pollution
from stationary sources such as aging coal-fired power plants. The Mercury
and Air Toxics Standard (MATS) regulation announced by the EPA in
December, for example, will reduce emissions of sulfur dioxide, mercury
and other toxic air pollution and generate between $27 billion and $80 billion
in net benefits annually by improving people’s health.
In addition, to create a market for innovative technologies that will
encourage the deployment of clean energy and the benefits that come with
it, such as reduced emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases, the
President has proposed a Clean Energy Standard (CES).
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Innovation, Clean Energy, and Public Investment
A CES works by giving electric power plants clean energy credits for
electricity they generate from clean energy. Utilities that serve retail customers
are responsible for making sure they have enough clean energy credits
to meet their target. Utilities that generate more clean energy than needed
to meet their target can bank their extra credits for later use, or sell them to
other companies. Under the President’s proposal, the target would increase
over time, so that by 2035, 80 percent of the country’s electricity would be
generated from clean sources. This flexible approach would harness privatesector
incentives to minimize the cost of generating electricity from clean
energy sources.
Because of cleaner power plants, greater use of alternative fuels, and
more energy-efficient vehicles, buildings, and appliances, EIA (2012) expects
per capita emissions of carbon dioxide in the United States to fall over time,
by an average of 0.8 percent a year between 2010 and 2035.
Supporting Clean Energy R&D and Infrastructure
Public investments in innovation and infrastructure are critical to
solving the twin objectives of increasing energy security and reducing GHG
emissions. Private-sector investment in energy R&D and infrastructure will
be less than optimal because the positive externalities from such investments
prevent private firms from fully capturing the benefits. Support for innovation
is a key piece of the Blueprint strategy, which involves creating markets
for clean technologies that are ready to deploy and funding cutting-edge
research to deliver the next generation of technologies. In addition, investments
in modernizing the energy infrastructure with advanced technologies
will help to increase efficiency and reduce waste. Innovation and adoption of
new technologies will be critical to improving energy efficiency and shifting
the Nation’s energy use toward low-carbon energy generation.
Among the DOE offices that provide support for clean energy innovation
is the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E), an organization
modeled after the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.
ARPA-E provides funds to develop advanced energy technologies that
reduce energy-related emissions and increase energy efficiency, focusing on
transformational energy research that the private sector by itself is unlikely
to support. The Obama Administration funded ARPA-E for the first time
with $400 million as part of the Recovery Act. This funding, along with
subsequent appropriations, has been used to support about 180 projects,
including technologies for plug-in electric vehicles, batteries that convert
wind power into a steady power source, and microorganisms that produce
liquid biofuels from sunlight and carbon dioxide. The President’s Fiscal Year
2013 Budget proposes $350 million in new funding for ARPA-E to continue
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Box 8-1: Developing Domestic Energy: Shale Gas and Shale Oil
Shale gas and shale oil (also known as “tight” oil) are deposits
trapped inside formations of fine-grained sedimentary rocks, or shale. As
recently as a decade ago many of these deposits were viewed as uneconomical
to extract. Now they are being profitably extracted, leading to a
boom in production from these unconventional oil and gas deposits.
The President has been clear about the importance of domestic oil
and gas production, including the central role responsible natural gas
development will play in our energy future, increasing energy independence,
and supporting jobs.
The percent of new wells directed to shale gas and oil deposits surged
from 13 percent in 2005 to 57 percent in 2011. That dramatic increase is
in large part due to rising energy prices in the early 2000s, which made it
profitable for oil and gas companies to pursue higher cost reserves. But it
is also due in part to R&D investments made by the Department of Energy
(DOE). Between 1978 and 1992, the DOE invested about $137 million in
the Eastern Gas Shale program, which helped develop and demonstrate
directional and horizontal drilling technology.
Horizontal drilling allows multiple wells to be completed from one
drilling pad by drilling vertically for several thousand feet and then drilling
horizontally. Hydraulic fracturing pumps water, chemicals and sand
into the well to fracture the surrounding rock, releasing trapped natural
gas and oil, allowing more gas and oil to be captured (see figure). From
2006 through 2010 the average annual growth rate of shale gas production
was 48 percent. By 2035 shale gas is expected to make up 49 percent of
total U.S. natural gas production, up from 23 percent in 2010 (EIA 2012).
Increased supply has caused wholesale natural gas prices to fall more than
75 percent from their peak in October 2005 through October 2011. This
led to a 67 percent drop in prices charged for natural gas used to generate
electricity and a 34 percent decline in residential natural gas prices.
Domestic oil production also grew in 2009 and 2010, in part due
to horizontal drilling methods. That growth helped improve America’s
energy security. We reduced our imports of crude oil, from 10.1 million
barrels per day in 2005 to an estimated 8.9 million barrels per day in 2011.
EIA (2012) projects that domestic oil production will continue to increase
through 2020. We are also exporting more refined petroleum products
than ever: between the first half of 2009 and the first half of 2011, exports
of mineral fuels and oils jumped 150 percent, an increase valued at more
than $35 billion (see Chapter 5). In addition, the United States is at the
forefront of exporting extraction technologies and related services to
other countries interested in tapping their own unconventional oil and
gas reserves.
Improving the Quality of Life through Smart Regulation, | 257
Innovation, Clean Energy, and Public Investment
This expansion of natural gas and oil production has also supported
jobs for thousands of Americans. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data
show that oil and gas extraction and drilling services jobs have grown
by 100,000 between 2005 and 2010, with much of that increase tied to
horizontal drilling for shale gas and oil. The industry also indirectly supports
many more jobs, including jobs associated with the transportation,
processing, and distribution of oil and natural gas products. Furthermore,
downstream industries, such as the chemical and plastics sectors that use
natural gas as an important input, benefit from the expanded supply of
natural gas.
Such tremendous growth also comes with the responsibility to
develop these new resources safely. A number of concerns have been
raised regarding the potential adverse environmental impacts associated
with current shale gas extraction practices, particularly the use of hydraulic
fracturing. The Obama Administration is taking a number of steps to
ensure that the United States can realize the economic benefits of its natural
gas resources in a an environmentally responsible way. An important
part of this effort consists of targeted research coordinated between the
DOE, the Department of the Interior, and the Environmental Protection
Agency to assess and address potential impacts of natural gas and oil
development using hydraulic fracturing and to identify innovative ways to
reduce adverse environmental impacts. For example, the DOE is actively
involved in research exploring improved methods to treat the water
used in shale gas extraction so it can be reused or disposed of safely. The
Administration is committed to ensuring that natural gas and oil extraction
will be pursued in a prudent manner that is safe for the environment.
Horizontal Well (A) vs. Vertical Well (B)
Source: EIA (1993).
258 | Chapter 8
to support breakthrough clean energy research in areas such as solar energy,
energy storage, carbon capture and storage, and advanced biofuels.
An important part of the effort to transition to a clean energy future is
the “SunShot Initiative” announced by the DOE in February 2011. This initiative
supports innovation to reduce the cost of solar energy by 75 percent by
2020, making unsubsidized solar energy cost-competitive with other forms
of energy. Achieving the goal will require major innovations in the ways
solar technologies are conceived, designed, manufactured, and installed.
SunShot is investing in solar technology and manufacturing improvements
and working to reduce installation and permitting costs. According to DOE
(2011) analysis, by reducing the cost of solar electricity to about six cents per
kilowatt hour, SunShot has the potential to increase the share of electricity
generation from solar photovoltaics to 15 percent by 2030.
As the United States transitions to a clean energy future, an important
way to improve energy efficiency, reliability, and security is to upgrade the
electricity transmission and distribution infrastructure to make greater use
of advanced technology and to incorporate real-time communications,
monitoring, and control systems. Transforming the electricity infrastructure
into a “smart grid” could lead to substantial cost savings and efficiencies,
help avoid blackouts, and improve the integration of renewable energy
sources on the grid. The Recovery Act included $4.5 billion in grid modernization
investments, matched by contributions of more than $5.5 billion
from the private sector. Building on these investments, the Administration
announced a number of new initiatives to support the development and
deployment of smart-grid technologies, including $250 million in loans to
deploy smart-grid technology in rural areas under the Rural Utility Service.
In June 2011, the White House released a report by the National Science
and Technology Council, “A Policy Framework for the 21st Century Grid:
Enabling Our Secure Energy Future,” outlining policy recommendations
that build on existing smart-grid investments to foster continued modernization
of electricity infrastructure.
In addition to efforts to support smart grid development, the
Administration has announced efforts to improve Federal coordination and
ensure timely review of proposed renewable energy projects and transmission
lines through the formation of two interagency Rapid Response Teams,
one for transmission and one for renewables. The Rapid Response Team
for Transmission is focused on seven pilot project transmission lines which
cross through 12 states. These projects were selected from lists produced
through independent stakeholder processes. When built, these seven pilot
projects will help increase electric reliability and integrate renewable energy
into the grid. The agencies participating in the Renewable Energy Rapid
Improving the Quality of Life through Smart Regulation, | 259
Innovation, Clean Energy, and Public Investment
Response Team have all made significant strides toward the deployment of
renewable energy through the development of better government processes
to issue permits for renewable energy projects.
Infrastructure
As emphasized, energy infrastructure is critical for developing our
domestic clean energy potential. Infrastructure also includes transportation
systems like roads, railways, ports and airports; information and communications
networks; and schools, parks, and other public facilities. As
economic activity grows, the infrastructure that supports it must grow as
well. Moreover, physical infrastructure deteriorates over time and requires
ongoing investment for maintenance. If investments to maintain, upgrade,
and expand infrastructure do not keep pace with the growth in demand, the
result is congestion: too many hours sitting in traffic or in an airplane stalled
on the tarmac, too many dropped calls, slow Internet connections. Such
disruptions impose substantial economic costs through wasted time and
resources and diminished quality of life. As a result, efficient infrastructure
investments can have a significant positive impact on economic welfare.
The State of the Nation’s Infrastructure
The value of the U.S. transportation capital stock steadily increased
from 2004 to 2009, reaching more than $6 trillion in 2009 (the most recently
reported year). The greatest percentage increase in mileage for any mode
of transportation from 2004 to 2009 was in light transit rail track, which
increased by 24 percent, followed by commuter rail track, which increased
by 10 percent. At the same time, the overall condition of many parts of the
Nation’s transportation infrastructure remained disappointing. In 2008,
nearly 21 percent of urban interstate highways and 35 percent of urban collector
roads were in poor or mediocre condition, according to the Bureau of
Transportation Statistics. Moreover, in 2009 nearly 71,200 bridges—more
than 10 percent of all U.S. bridges—were rated as structurally deficient.
The current disappointing state of transportation infrastructure is
partly reflected in rising levels of congestion on many parts of the transportation
system, particularly urban roadways. According to the Texas Traffic
Institute’s (TTI) Urban Mobility Report, traffic congestion in urban areas in
2010 accounted for 4.8 billion hours of travel delay and 1.9 billion gallons of
wasted fuel, for an aggregate congestion cost of more than $100 billion, an
increase of more than 25 percent over 2000 in constant (inflation-adjusted)
dollars (Schrank, Lomax, and Eisele 2011). If current trends continue, TTI
projects that the total cost of congestion in U.S. urban areas could grow by
260 | Chapter 8
a further 32 percent in real terms by 2015. These estimates likely understate
the real effects of congestion on welfare because they do not take into
account the reduction in quality of life that results from additional time
spent commuting. Studies of how individuals experience the activities of
daily life have found that commuting is among the least enjoyable and most
stressful (Kahneman et al. 2004, Stutzer and Frey 2004).
The U.S. electricity grid is also showing signs of strain, with investment
in capacity generally lagging behind growth in demand. According to
the DOE (2008), growth in peak demand for electricity has exceeded transmission
growth by almost 25 percent every year since 1982. Power outages
and interruptions have become more frequent and are now affecting more
consumers. The DOE reported that 41 percent more outages affected 50,000
or more consumers in the second half of the 1990s than in the first half, and
the average outage affected 15 percent more consumers. By 2008, power outages
and interruptions cost Americans an estimated $150 billion each year.
Broadband is another important category of infrastructure where the
United States faces significant investment needs. Described by the Federal
Communications Commission as “the great infrastructure challenge of the
early 21st century” (FCC 2010), broadband’s growth over the past decade has
been substantial. Thanks to significant investments by telecommunications
and cable companies, 95 percent of the U.S. population had access to wired
broadband service in 2010, and industry analysts project that by 2013, wireless
providers will offer such service to about 94 percent of the population.
(Atkinson et al. 2011). At the same time, many households, particularly in
rural areas, continue to have Internet access only at much slower speeds. As
discussed, perhaps the most significant challenge to the Nation’s broadband
infrastructure is the threat of growing congestion on wireless networks.
Overall, evidence is growing that the United States has been underinvesting
in many kinds of infrastructure. For example, the Nation invests
annually approximately 2 percent of GDP on infrastructure, compared with
9 percent and 5 percent, respectively, for China and Europe. In addition,
compared with other OECD countries, Americans are relatively dissatisfied
with their local public infrastructure systems, according to the Gallup World
Poll. Americans’ satisfaction with public transit ranks 25th out of 32 OECD
nations, and satisfaction with roads and highways ranks 17th out of 32.
Many observers, including the American Society of Civil Engineers (2009),
have concluded that the United States faces a substantial need for infrastructure
investment over the next five years. Although the optimal level
of infrastructure investment is difficult to quantify precisely, the evidence
strongly suggests that the United States has not been investing adequately to
meet future infrastructure needs.
Improving the Quality of Life through Smart Regulation, | 261
Innovation, Clean Energy, and Public Investment
Government and Private Sector Roles in Infrastructure
In the United States some kinds of infrastructure, including most
roadways and public transit systems, are typically owned and financed by
government; other kinds, such as freight railways and telecommunications
networks, are largely privately owned. In part, these patterns of ownership
reflect historical accident. In choosing how much public support for
infrastructure to provide and how to finance it, the United States, like
other nations, faces questions about how best to balance the roles of the
public and private sectors in infrastructure investment. Two key economic
principles are whether it is costly or difficult for a private owner or investor
to earn a return by monetizing access to the network, through tolls or user
fees, and whether important positive spillover benefits from infrastructure
investment would prevent private investors from fully capturing the overall
economic benefit, even if there were a dedicated revenue stream from users.
The most important potential positive spillover effect is that many
infrastructure investments improve economic efficiency, increase productivity,
and promote rapid economic growth. Through these effects, as a large
body of research has shown, investments in infrastructure can substantially
improve the long-run performance of an economy. For example, Munnell
(1992) reviews the evidence on infrastructure investment and economic
growth and concludes that, “in addition to providing immediate economic
stimulus, public infrastructure investment has a significant positive effect on
output and growth.” Gramlich’s (1994) review of the same research cautions
that the rates of return on investments vary widely across different types of
infrastructure and highlights the need for policies that direct public investment
toward projects with the highest social return. More recent studies
have found further evidence that public infrastructure investment often
offers considerable returns, in some cases higher than those from private
capital investment. This research is reviewed in a U.S. Treasury-CEA report
(2010).
In addition to their long-run benefits on economic growth and productivity,
investments in infrastructure can also provide short-run benefits
during times when economic resources are underutilized, by supporting
employment in construction and in materials production. These short-run
effects depend on the state of the overall economy. When the economy is
operating at or close to its full potential, the new employment generated by
infrastructure projects generally requires diverting workers from other productive
activities, and the expenditure of public funds may similarly divert
funds from other investment opportunities. Certain infrastructure investments
may still be justified during such times, but the opportunity costs of
262 | Chapter 8
diverting economic resources from other activities reduce the net benefits of
such investments.
By contrast, today the economy is gradually recovering from the most
serious economic crisis since the Great Depression and is operating significantly
below its full potential, with unemployment still unacceptably high.
In 2011, over 1.8 million workers in the construction industry were jobless,
with an industry unemployment rate of 16.4 percent. In these circumstances,
public infrastructure projects create net jobs for workers. With excess capacity
widely available in the economy, increased public spending on construction
materials and increased private spending by newly hired workers are
unlikely to divert goods or materials from other uses. Similarly, with interest
rates exceptionally low, there is little risk that Federal investment will crowd
out private investment, and more infrastructure investments will yield a
positive rate of return. Moreover, State and local governments, which typically
fund a significant portion of infrastructure spending, have been forced
to cut back on spending because of revenue shortfalls since the recession of
2007–09. Recent macroeconomic research confirms the intuition that the
expansionary effect of Federal investment spending is likely to be significantly
greater during times of substantial slack in the economy. For example,
Auerbach and Gorodnichenko (2010) find that expansionary fiscal policy
is substantially more effective during recessions than during expansions.
Overall, with so many resources sitting idle, the opportunity costs of using
those resources for infrastructure investment are greatly reduced. Moreover,
postponing necessary infrastructure investments until after the economy
has rebounded would have the undesirable effect of occupying productive
resources just when the private sector needs them most.
Financing Infrastructure Investments
Government funding for infrastructure draws on a number of different
sources, including Federal disbursements of Highway Trust Fund
revenues and State and local issues of municipal bonds. Recent years have
seen increased interest in alternative financing mechanisms that may expand
the pool of available capital and improve the efficiency of project selection.
A common theme in these alternative approaches is the goal of attracting
more private capital for direct or indirect investment in transportation
infrastructure. Increased reliance on the private sector to finance transportation
infrastructure investments can help increase funding for those
investments and may also improve the efficiency of project selection and
drive greater returns on investm,ent. For example, to attract private financing,
many projects incorporate a dedicated revenue stream, often from user
fees or other forms of usage-based pricing. Because these revenue streams
Improving the Quality of Life through Smart Regulation, | 263
Innovation, Clean Energy, and Public Investment
link investment returns directly to user demand, they can help to guide
capital toward the most efficient projects. In general, innovative financing
mechanisms can engage the private sector in infrastructure investments
with important public benefits. In particular, this chapter considers three
innovative approaches to private-sector engagement: public-private partnerships,
particularly in the area of rail freight; Build America Bonds (BABs)
as an alternative to municipal bonds that can attract new sources of private
funding into the market for financing infrastructure projects; and a National
Infrastructure Bank that has the potential to leverage private capital into
projects of national significance.
Public-Private Partnerships. In the United States, most investment
in freight railway infrastructure is privately financed, because it is largely
owned by the rail carriers themselves. However, even in a network based
on private ownership, important public benefits can be realized through
investments that improve the flow of freight across the railway network.
The benefits of diverting freight efficiently from trucks to rails, for example,
include reduced highway congestion, greater safety, and reduced pollution.
Public-private partnerships between State and Federal agencies and
the rail carriers can be an efficient way to promote such investments. For
example, the Chicago Region Environmental and Transportation Efficiency
program is a public-private partnership between the U.S. Department of
Transportation, the State of Illinois, the City of Chicago, Metra commuter
rail, and Class I railroad companies. The partnership, formed to develop and
implement a set of multimodal infrastructure improvements to untangle
congestion choke points in the Chicago transportation hub, involves significant
financial cooperation between the private railroad industry and public
government entities.
Build America Bonds. Introduced in 2009, BABs are taxable bonds
for which the U.S. Treasury Department pays a direct subsidy to the issuer to
offset borrowing costs for public capital infrastructure projects. These bonds
can function as an attractive alternative to municipal bonds, which deliver
a borrowing subsidy only indirectly through the Federal tax exemption to
investors for interest earnings. BABs appeal to a broader class of investors
than tax-exempt municipal bonds, including nonprofits, pension funds, and
many other institutional investors. Since the inception of the program in
April 2009, BABs have had a very strong reception from both issuers and
investors. They have supported more than $181 billion of financing, in 2,275
transactions in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, and two territories,
for new public capital infrastructure projects such as schools, bridges, and
hospitals. An empirical study by the Treasury Department (2011) found that
State and local governments that issued BABs realized considerable savings
264 | Chapter 8
relative to the cost of issuing tax-exempt bonds. The study also found that
expanding the BABs program would lead to continued savings on borrowing
costs for State and local governments. Although the initial program expired
at the end of December 2010, the President’s Fiscal Year 2013 Budget has
proposed extending the program for two years at a subsidy rate of 30 percent
and extending it permanently thereafter at a revenue-neutral subsidy rate of
28 percent. The Administration has also proposed expanding the program
to include a broader range of eligible municipal projects.
National Infrastructure Bank. Another new approach to increasing
private-sector participation in infrastructure investment is a National
Infrastructure Bank, as President Obama has proposed as part of the
American Jobs Act. The proposed bank would help increase overall investment
in infrastructure by attracting private capital to co-invest in specific
infrastructure projects and would help improve the efficiency of infrastructure
investment by relying on a merit-based selection process for projects.
To ensure substantial leverage of private capital, the bank would finance
no more than 50 percent of the total costs of any project. It would fill in an
important gap in the Nation’s infrastructure funding system by focusing on
projects of national or regional significance, whose effects cross over state
and jurisdictional lines. Such projects are often at a disadvantage under
current financing mechanisms, including state-level infrastructure banks
and bonds issued by State and local governments. As a result, the National
Infrastructure Bank would be a valuable complement to existing sources of
funding and would improve the efficiency of U.S. infrastructure investment.
Recent and Current Federal Infrastructure Initiatives
Infrastructure investment has been an important priority throughout
the Obama Administration. As discussed above, the modernization of the
electricity grid is a key element of the effort to transition to a clean energy
future. This subsection reviews some of the Administration’s other recent
and current initiatives to support infrastructure investment.
Transportation. The Recovery Act of 2009 provided over $48 billion
to fund transportation infrastructure investments. In 2010, the Federal
Highway Administration announced that it had finished obligating more
than $26 billion of that amount for 12,000 road, highway, and bridge
projects, and in June 2010, President Obama visited Columbus, Ohio, to
commemorate the breaking of ground on the 10,000th such project. The
Recovery Act also provided funds for investments in the Nation’s air and
sea transportation infrastructure, including $1.3 billion to construct new
runways and improve air traffic control facilities and equipment, as well as
more than $18 billion to support transit and high-speed rail. Many of these
Improving the Quality of Life through Smart Regulation, | 265
Innovation, Clean Energy, and Public Investment
and other recently completed transportation infrastructure investments
have already produced substantial economic benefits for the American
people, including increased flows of traffic in congested areas, improved
highway safety, expansion of public transit service into new communities,
and rehabilitation and maintenance of aging infrastructure.
Despite these substantial achievements, there is still a pressing need
to revitalize America’s infrastructure networks. Recognizing this need,
President Obama has proposed $50 billion in immediate investments in
transportation infrastructure as part of the American Jobs Act. The proposal
includes investments to speed up the permitting process, to make highways
safer and more efficient, to repair and modernize public transit systems, to
improve intercity passenger rail service and airports, to develop high-speed
rail corridors, to support innovative multi-modal transportation programs,
and to modernize the air traffic system by investing in the Next Generation
Air Transportation System, or NextGen. The President also supports a
robust renewal of surface transportation programs, now scheduled to expire
on March 31, 2012, to keep existing and planned transportation projects
moving forward.
Broadband. The Recovery Act provided $7.2 billion to upgrade
the Nation’s broadband infrastructure, including $4.7 billion for broadband
infrastructure programs at the Department of Commerce’s National
Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA) and $2.5
billion for the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Utilities Service (RUS)
to expand broadband access in rural areas. These two programs together
received more than 3,800 applications requesting more than $52 billion in
support for potential projects in all 50 states and territories. When the final
awards were announced in September 2010, NTIA had awarded approximately
$4 billion for 233 projects throughout the country. The funds will
support the construction or upgrade of approximately 120,000 miles of
broadband infrastructure and will improve broadband access for approximately
24,000 community institutions, including schools, libraries, and
health care facilities. In addition, RUS has awarded more than $3.5 billion in
grants and loans for 320 broadband projects, which will provide broadband
access for 2.8 million households and 364,000 businesses in rural areas.
As part of the National Wireless Initiative, the President has called
for investment in a state-of-the-art nationwide wireless broadband network
for public safety communications. Developing and deploying such a system
would help enable interoperability at the national level, making first
responders more effective when they are called on to cross jurisdictional
lines. An interoperable network would also reduce the costs of the assorted
interoperability measures now being used, ranging from swapping radios to
266 | Chapter 8
using Internet-based gateways to patch together noninteroperable systems.
Moreover, deploying a single nationwide network would realize important
scale economies, eliminating duplicative operating and maintenance costs
and enabling public safety entities to obtain commercially supplied devices
and equipment at substantially lower cost than they can today. Finally, with
clear, nationwide standards that help make public safety communication
systems interoperable across jurisdictions and vendors, software and hardware
developers will find it more economical to invest in innovative public
safety devices and applications, further enhancing the effectiveness of first
responders.
Conclusion
Through smart regulation, innovation, promotion of clean domestic
energy, and public investment, the Federal Government helps Americans
every day, improving safety and health, laying the groundwork for technological
breakthroughs, and putting into place the infrastructure that
facilitates commerce and travel and raises productivity. The benefits of these
activities are not fully reflected in standard measures of economic activity
such as GDP, but they do significantly improve the quality of life and our
economy.
Jan Tinbergen (1976), the first winner of the Nobel Prize in economics,
commented that, “progress in our understanding can only be based on
our push for measurement of phenomena previously thought to be nonmeasurable.”
Spurred by the creation of new measurement techniques and
the need to improve conventional measures of well-being, several recent
official efforts have aimed at expanding the boundaries of measurement of
the quality of life. As this year’s Economic Report of the President suggests,
further innovation and advances in measurement through improvements
to traditional economic indicators and the development of new indicators
of societal well-being will help bring about further improvements in the
Nation’s quality of life and the economy.
267
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A P P E N D I X A
REPORT TO THE PRESIDENT
ON THE ACTIVITIES OF THE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC
ADVISERS DURING 2011